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Marleen Van Steertegem Flemish Environment Agency (VMM) Environmental Reporting Unit

F orward looking activities in Flanders : 1 Megatrends: work in progress 2 System dynamics modelling : first steps. Marleen Van Steertegem Flemish Environment Agency (VMM) Environmental Reporting Unit EEA NRC FLIS meeting November 12-13, 2013, EEA Copenhagen.

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Marleen Van Steertegem Flemish Environment Agency (VMM) Environmental Reporting Unit

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  1. Forward lookingactivities in Flanders: 1Megatrends: work in progress2System dynamicsmodelling: first steps Marleen Van Steertegem Flemish Environment Agency (VMM) Environmental Reporting Unit EEA NRC FLIS meeting November 12-13, 2013, EEA Copenhagen

  2. 1 Megatrends: work in progress • Aim: systematic analysis of global megatrends from an environmental point of view and with a time horizon 2030-2050 • Three phases: 1° Literaturereview (resultssee meeting Berlin) 2° Expert panels (reportingalmostfinished) 3° Reporting, incl. communicationstrategy (spring 2014)

  3. Six megatrends: • Changingdemographicbalances • Increasingspeed of technologicaldevelopmentanditsunforeseenimpacts • Scarcity of naturalandother resources • Froma unipolarto a multipolarworld • Climate change • Increasingfragility of naturalandsocietal systems

  4. 2 System dynamicsmodelling (SDM): feasibilitystudy Definingconditionsfor SDM: • Literature review of existingdynamicmodelsanduse in forward looking studies • Definition of design criteria, e.g. time horizon, level of aggregation, spatialdifferentiation Design of a system diagram forFlanders: • Expert consultation • Cmaps Screening of thematicmodels • Literature review • Expert consultation • MCA for ranking thematicmodels

  5. 2 System dynamicsmodelling (SDM): system diagram

  6. 2 System dynamicsmodelling (SDM): “model fit” of 13 thematicmodelsused in Flanders • Abstract study (in English): http://www.environmentflanders.be

  7. Thankyouforyour attention & feedback ! Marleen Van Steertegem (m.vansteertegem@vmm.be) VMM-MIRA: www.environmentflanders.be

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