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Southwest Kansas Groundwater Management District #3 Model Kansas Water Office Contract

Southwest Kansas Groundwater Management District #3 Model Kansas Water Office Contract A Kansas Water Plan Project. Progress Report March 29, 2010. Major Progress.

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Southwest Kansas Groundwater Management District #3 Model Kansas Water Office Contract

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  1. Southwest Kansas Groundwater Management District #3 Model Kansas Water Office Contract A Kansas Water Plan Project Progress Report March 29, 2010

  2. Major Progress • PEST Calibration – 16 runs1) Power functions for recharge-precipitation2) Five-year water level differences 3) Weighting factor change for streamflow

  3. Power P-R Functions P0 is threshold precipitation after which groundwater recharge occurs. For each recharge zone, P0, a and b are calibrated.

  4. PEST Runs D-J • D: Change linear P-R segments to power functions. Other settings same as Run B in TAC020810. • E: Change water-level difference targets from 1 year to 5-year intervals. Other settings same as D. Different runs derived from E - • F: Fix P-R power functions, calibrate PST+ K and Sy. • G: Fix P-R power functions and Sy, calibrate K. • H: Fix P-R power functions and K, calibrate Sy. • I: Use optimal values from H and recalibrate all parameters. • J: Use optimal values from I and calibrate all parameters, but lower the maximum limit for Sy (the calibrated Sy for sands and gravels from I was 39%).

  5. PEST Runs K-S • K: Double the weighting factor for streamflow targets. Other setting same as J. • L: Use log for K. Other settings same as J. • M: Decrease the weighting factor for streamflow targets by half. Use log for K. • N: Increase precipitation recharge for zone 3. Calibrated recharge for zone 3 too small. • O: Change precipitation recharge parameter settings for zone 2. Calibrated recharge for zone 2 not physically reasonable. • P: Further modify recharge parameter settings. Calibrated recharge for zone 2 from O still not physically reasonable. • Q: Further modify recharge parameter and specific yield settings. Precipitation recharge curve for zone 2 not reasonable. The Sy values considered a little too high after KGS internal team discussion. • R and S: Similar to Q, fix K and Sy and further improve recharge parameters.

  6. PEST Run RMS Summary

  7. PEST Run RMS Summary

  8. Comparison to Previous Models

  9. Model Results from PEST Run R

  10. Zone 1 Row Column Current Model Recharge Zones

  11. Calibrated P-R Curves

  12. Calibrated Synonymy K (ft/day) and Sy

  13. Parameter Sensitivity

  14. Predevelopment T ft2/d

  15. 1996-2007 T ft2/d

  16. Predevelopment-1966 Sy

  17. 1997-2007 Sy

  18. Predevelopment Precipitation Recharge in/yr

  19. 2007 Precipitation Recharge in/yr

  20. Simulated vs. Observed Water Levels The RMS (root mean square), MAR (mean absolute residual) and RMAE (relative mean absolute error) are: 33.38 ft and 23.52 ft and 1.34%.

  21. Simulated vs. Observed Water Level Changes 10 Years 5 Years

  22. Simulated Vs. Observed Ark River Flows Deerfield RMS = 0.63 Syracuse RMS = 0.08 Dodge City RMS = 0.85 Garden City RMS = 0.46

  23. Cimarron River and Crooked Creek Flows Crooked Creek RMS = 0.40 Cimarron RMS = 0.10

  24. Well Hydrographs KearnyFinneyArkN Paleo GrayArkN HoFo KearnyFinneyArkS GrHsCimN GrayArkS-CC Stanton ME StSeCimS MT

  25. Well Hydrographs - Paleo Ark Valley

  26. Well Hydrographs – Kearny & Finney North of Ark

  27. Well Hydrographs – Gray North of Ark

  28. Well Hydrographs – Kearny & Finney South of Ark

  29. Well Hydrographs – Hodgeman & Ford

  30. Well Hydrographs - Stanton

  31. Well Hydrographs – Grant & Haskell North of Cimarron

  32. Well Hydrographs - Gray South of Ark to Crooked Creek

  33. Well Hydrographs - Morton The first well is in bedrock although the water level is slightly above bedrock surface; the second well is also in thinly saturated area on the tri-state border.

  34. Well Hydrographs - Stevens & Seward South of Cimarron

  35. Well Hydrographs - Meade

  36. GMD3 Model Boundaries Red – Specified Fluxes(Represented by a series of artificial wells)

  37. Water Budgets Across Boundaries (Accumulative)

  38. Water Budgets Across Boundaries (Annual)

  39. Bedrock Head Boundary Budgets (Accumulative)

  40. Bedrock Head Boundary Budgets (Annual)

  41. Arkansas River Flow Predevelopment 2007

  42. Crooked Creek Flow Predevelopment 2007

  43. Cimarron River Flow Predevelopment 2007

  44. Simulated Groundwater Budgets (Accumulative)

  45. Simulated Groundwater Budgets (Annual)

  46. Next Major Steps • A few more PEST runs to check if the calibrated model can be further improved. • Scenario simulation under different climatic and water use conditions.

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