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BEYOND THE AVERAGE A BAYESIAN APPROACH FOR SETTING MEDIA TARGETS

BEYOND THE AVERAGE A BAYESIAN APPROACH FOR SETTING MEDIA TARGETS. Charlotte Wise - 2019. 106. MARKETS COVERED. $ 3.6 B. IN ANNUALIZED MEDIA SPEND. To measure success, we need a KPI. View Through Rate (%) = Video Views ÷ Impressions. ...and KPI expectation to benchmark against.

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BEYOND THE AVERAGE A BAYESIAN APPROACH FOR SETTING MEDIA TARGETS

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  1. BEYOND THE AVERAGEA BAYESIAN APPROACH FOR SETTING MEDIA TARGETS Charlotte Wise - 2019

  2. 106 MARKETS COVERED $3.6B IN ANNUALIZED MEDIA SPEND

  3. To measure success, we need aKPI... View Through Rate (%) = Video Views ÷ Impressions ...and KPI expectation to benchmark against

  4. Sparse data problem

  5. We used a Random Forest per market to extract important splits...

  6. Most important splits for Facebook View Through Rate

  7. Using an average or tree-based approach would be arbitrary….

  8. So we moved beyond the average to Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling

  9. Franchise trailers have higher view through rates Posterior Prior

  10. Each possible combination has its own VTR benchmark 22 unique VTR estimates in Kazakhstan, where we have 1 historical campaign

  11. Automation

  12. Targets became more challenging... % Test Campaigns that beat benchmarks 73% AVERAGE 60% RF BRMS 59% Training Testing June 2018 2016 2017 2018

  13. ...making optimisations more impactful! 123M INCREMENTAL VIEWS DRIVEN IN THE LAST YEAR, WORTH AN ESTIMATED • $2.7 • m YEAR ON YEAR

  14. ANY QUESTIONS? LinkedIn: charlotte-wise-844460142

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