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Setting Targets for the English Baccalaureate

Setting Targets for the English Baccalaureate. Andrew Lyth Research Associate, CEM. London, January 2012. For the last few years MidYIS and Yellis have calculated pupils’ probabilities of achieving measures such as 5+ A*-C or 5+A*-C with English and Maths.

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Setting Targets for the English Baccalaureate

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  1. Setting Targets for the English Baccalaureate Andrew Lyth Research Associate, CEM London, January 2012

  2. For the last few years MidYIS and Yellis have calculated pupils’ probabilities of achieving measures such as 5+ A*-C or 5+A*-C with English and Maths. • We have done this by matching pupils’ MidYIS/Yellis scores to their later GCSE data, and then applying a technique called logistic regression. • The English Baccalaureate (Ebacc), introduced in November 2010, is a similar kind of measure but it presents particular problems for target-setting.

  3. Probability of achieving 5+ A*-C inc Eng and Maths by MidYIS score, GCSE 2011 state schools, modelled by logistic regression:

  4. EBacc requirements. Achieve grade C or higher in: • English • Mathematics • Science, either • Double science; Science and Additional science; Having taken all three separate sciences achieve grade C in two or more of them • Humanities, either • History; Ancient History; Geography • Languages, either • Modern foreign languages; Latin; Greek; Biblical Hebrew; Hindi

  5. Not all pupils take a set of subjects that make them eligible for the EBacc: • In 2010 in English Maintained Schools only 22% of pupils were entered for a set of subjects that covered all the requirements of the EBacc • In comparison 96% of pupils were entered for subject that covered the requirements for 5 or more GCSEs at A*-C inc English and Maths

  6. High ability and also high value-added … • Pupils who take an E-Bacc set of GCSE subjects are not typical of pupils as a whole:

  7. Probability of achieving 5+ A*-C inc Eng and Maths by GCSE choices, state schools:

  8. The proportion of pupils taking an EBacc set of subjects is expected to increase over time, so the EBacc group will become less “exclusive” over time. • In the meantime any probabilities based on an EBacc group of pupils are likely to be unrealistically high when applied to pupils in general. • In making estimates of pupils’ probabilities of achieving the EBacc should we base those predictions on data from the high value-added EBacc group? • Or should we predict as though pupils had average value-added?

  9. Probability of achieving EBacc by MidYIS score

  10. Andrew.Lyth@cem.dur.ac.uk

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