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Real-time WRF EnKF

Real-time WRF EnKF. 36km outer domain/4km nested domain. D2 (4km). D1 (36km). Real-time WRF EnKF. 3-hr update cycle for both domains (runs 8 times daily) Digital filter initialization performed on both domains (reduces noise) Bias removal on 4km domain

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Real-time WRF EnKF

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  1. Real-time WRF EnKF • 36km outer domain/4km nested domain D2 (4km) D1 (36km)

  2. Real-time WRF EnKF • 3-hr update cycle for both domains (runs 8 times daily) • Digital filter initialization performed on both domains (reduces noise) • Bias removal on 4km domain • Analysis and hourly forecast output saved on both domains (analysis,1,2,3-hr forecast) • 80 members on 36km, 42 members on 4km

  3. Real-time WRF EnKF • ~3000 surface observations available for assimilation on 4-km domain (~75% of all observations after terrain check) • ~1500 observations assimilated, ~1500 for verification • Assimilation of radiosonde, cloud-track wind, and ACARS data still occurs on both domains Terrain Height (m) 36-km 4-km

  4. Real-time WRF EnKF • Runtime for full 36km/4km 3-hr cycle: 2:58 • Improvements in near future (~month): 1) Surface background variance inflation 2) Faster processors 3) Reduced latency 3) Real-time graphics on web • Analysis and forecast verification with GFS, NAM, RUC, 4km GFS-WRF coming soon!

  5. Real-time WRF EnKF • Very early results (before bias removal): Analysis RMS errors against unassimilated observations: 4km GFS-WRF4km WRF EnKF Sfc Temperature 2.84 K 2.34 K Sfc Wind 2.03 m/s 2.02 m/s As was the case with the 12km runs, bias removal and variance inflation is expected to further improve analyses…

  6. Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Mean 4km Mean Near-surface Windspeed, MSLP ANALYSIS

  7. Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Mean 4km Mean Near-surface Windspeed, MSLP 01-HR

  8. Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Mean 4km Mean Near-surface Windspeed, MSLP 02-HR

  9. Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Mean 4km Mean Near-surface Windspeed, MSLP 03-HR

  10. Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Mean 4km Mean 850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds ANALYSIS

  11. Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Mean 4km Mean 850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds 01-HR

  12. Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Mean 4km Mean 850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds 02-HR

  13. Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Mean 4km Mean 850-hPa Temperature, GPH, Winds 03-HR

  14. Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Spread 4km Spread 850-hPa Temperature ANALYSIS

  15. Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Spread 4km Spread 850-hPa Temperature 01-HR

  16. Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Spread 4km Spread 850-hPa Temperature 02-HR

  17. Real-time WRF EnKF 36km Spread 4km Spread 850-hPa Temperature 03-HR

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