Enhancing Nigeria's Economic Recovery: Importance of Monitoring and Evaluation Systems

1. Role of the Monitoring and Evaluation Systems in Accelerating the Delivery of the Nigeria’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan By Lawal Zakari PhD, mni Director Monitoring & Evaluation Ministry of Budget and National Planning (August , 2018)

2. Introduction • Accelerating the delivery of the ERGP very critical for Nigeria. • Delivery/execution of policy/plans however found to be strongly influenced by quality of monitoring and evaluation frameworks/systems around the policies/plans. • Policies/Plans supported by strong M&E frameworks found to be better delivered with better impact than those with weak frameworks(World Bank, 2010). • ERGP requires a strong M&E Frameworks/System to be executed in a timely and impactful manner.

3. Introduction • Paper intends to : • Discuss the meaning and importance of a monitoring and evaluation framework/ system, • How the M&E system can support the fast tracking of the delivery of the ERGP and achieving its objectives. • Provide some highlights of what needs to be by ERGP Stakeholders to strengthen the M&E Frameworks/Systems

4. ERGP in Brief ERGP - a Medium Term Plan articulated by the government of Nigeria as a development strategy to achieve“ a sustained inclusive growth for Nigeria” to be implemented within the period 2017 – 2020. • ERGP Fundamental Objectives are to : • Restore Economic Growth, Macroeconomic Stability and Economic Diversification (ERGP Objective 1), • Invest in Nigeria’s People by enhancing human capital (education, skills, employment, jobs, access to quality health care) in asocial inclusive manner (ERGP Objective 2), • Build a Globally Competitive Economy: Putting in better infrastructure, Improved the business environment, a Digitally-led growth strategy (ERGP Objective 3).

5. The Meaning of a Monitoring and Evaluation System • Monitoring System: This is a system that enables - • Continuous systematic collection of data • on specified indicators of performance of policy, plan, programme or project • using scientific tools and techniques • to provide management and the main stakeholders of an ongoing development intervention with indications of the extent of progress and achievement of objectives • and progress in the use of allocated funds .

6. The Components of a Monitoring System • Basically a typical Monitoring System consist of the under listed components and processes: I: Setting Result Chain/Logical Frame Work for Interventions II. Setting Indicators, Baselines and Targets III. Establishing Means of Verification/Data Collection Tools • Conduct of Data Collection • Data Analysis • Reporting • Performance Review And Feed Back Sessions • These components are discussed in detail in the Slides below.

7. The Components of a Monitoring System I: SETTING RESULT CHAIN/LOGICAL FRAME WORK FOR INTERVENTIONS • Setting the results chain and logical framework of interventions is the first step of setting up a monitoring system. • A Logical Framework Approach (LFA)is a project design methodology that provides a systematic structure for identifying, planning and managing projects. • The LF approach enables the main elements of a project to be concisely summarised and brings structure and logic to the relationship between project purpose and intended inputs, planned activities, and expected results. • It set outs : • What the project is going to achieve • What activities will be carried out • What means/resources/inputs (human, technical, infrastructural, etc.) are required • What potential problems could affect the success of the project • How the progress and ultimate success of the project will be measured and verified

8. The Components of a Monitoring System A logframe has four basic levels and four columns, each of which relates to a specific crosscutting function. The nomenclature used depends on the Development Orgnisation.

9. The Components of a Monitoring System • A Results Framework like the LFA is an explicit articulation (graphic display, matrix, or summary) of the different levels, or chains, of results expected from a particular intervention policy/program/project, or development strategy. The Results framework includes: • Results Chain • Indicators of the Results • Baseline values and Targets for the Indicators • Means of Verification for the Indicators

10. The Components of a Monitoring System

11. The Components of a Monitoring System II. SETTING INDICATORS, BASELINES AND TARGETS • Setting good performance indicators with baselines and targets is a key component of monitoring systems. • Indicators are needed for performance measurements/assessments. • For Indicators to be effective in performance measurements and assessment they need to have the under listed features: • Specific – Indicator must be clear and unambiguous • Measurable – Indicator must establish clear criteria for measuring progress • Attainable – Indicator must be linked to a set and achievable objective • Relevant – Indicator must relate to the strategy, mandate, or responsibilities of organization being monitored • Time bound – Indicator must specify a timeframe for achieving results • Possess Baseline values and clear Targets for the Indicators

12. The Components of a Monitoring System III. ESTABLISH MEANS OF VERIFICATION/DATA COLLECTION TOOLS • How to acquire evidence that the objectives (Indicator) have been met • Where to find proof which will provide the data/information required for each indicator • Are MoVs obtainable from already existing and accessible sources, e.g. statistics, reports, observations ? - Secondary Source • Or is it through gathering of special data required? e.g. Monitoring visit to collect data using scientific tools such as questionnaires, interviews, GPS, Camera, Radio, Drones, Satellites etc. or Surveys- using survey methodology etc. – Primary Source • Establishing frequency of data collection / analysis and timeline • Establishing responsibilities for:- data collection / analysis and reporting

13. The Components of a Monitoring System • CONDUCT OF DATA COLLECTION • Data can be collected through: • Monitoring Visits for verification and primary data collection using scientific monitoring tools, • Surveys- Using survey methods & tools • Census- Using census tools • Desk Reviews to collect Secondary data from secondary sources and Administrative data from administrative sources.

14. The Components of a Monitoring System V. DATA ANALYSIS • Analysis of data is a process of inspecting, cleaning, transforming, and modeling collected data with the goal of discovering useful information, suggesting conclusions, and supporting decision-making. • Several techniques can be used by organisations to conduct data analysis. The common ones include: • Frequency Distribution (Histogram in Excel) • Descriptive Statistics: Measures of central tendency (mea, medium and mode) and dispersion (range and standard deviation). • Comparing Means – Statistical Testing (T-Test) • Cross-Tabulation (Pivot Table in Excel) • Correlations • Linear Regressions • Text Analytics

15. The Components of a Monitoring System VI. REPORTING • Reports are the usual tangible outputs/ products of a monitoring system. • A report is made with the specific intention of relaying analysed data/ information in a way that is concise, factual and relevant to the audience at hand. • Reports may be conveyed through a written medium, speech, internet website, television, or film. • The common feature of a written report consist of: Introduction, Objectives, Methodology, Analysis of Performance Data, General Findings, Challenges and Recommendations. • Reports use features such as tables, graphics, images, voice, or specialized vocabulary in order to persuade a specific audience to undertake an action or inform the reader of the subject at hand.

16. The Components of a Monitoring System VII. PERFORMANCE REVIEW AND FEED BACK SESSION • Performance Review Sessions and Feed back sessions with key stakeholders is a very critical part of the monitoring cycle/process. • They are aimed at presenting joint discussions with stakeholders on the findings and recommendations of the report to enable stakeholders understand the situation and their roles in implementing the recommended monitoring actions. • To conduct performance reviews and feed back sessions, the following guidelines can be adopted : • Establish the purpose of the performance review meeting • Outline your agenda for the meeting • Collectively review the relevant parts of the performance review report. Discuss challenges and successes. • Discuss ideas for development/action plan • Agree upon specific actions to be taken by each of stakeholder • Summarize the performance review meeting conversation and express support

17. The Meaning of an Evaluation System • Evaluation System: Is a system/process that supports- • periodicsystematic and objective assessment of an on-going or completed policy, plan, programme or project policy, its design, implementation and results. • The aim is to determine- • The relevance and fulfillment of objectives of the Policy, Plan, Project to the targeted beneficiaries, • Efficiency (value for money) of the strategies being used, • Effectiveness (achievement of planned targets) , • impact (changes on the livelihood of the targeted beneficiaries) and • sustainability (extent of continuity of the benefits).

18. The Components of a Evaluation System An Evaluation System/Framework involve the under listed processes : • Establishing the rationale for the evaluating of interventions • Identifying and prioritising projects and programs to undertake • Establishing the questions the evaluations seeks to answer for interventions • Developing a description of the evaluation approaches • Developing a description of the data collection methods that will be used and the process for analysing the resulting data from the evaluation • Establishing ethical considerations for evaluations. • Developing proposal for how evaluation will be reported and disseminated • Providing budget • Establishing timeline. • Conducting the Evaluation • Sharing the Evaluation Findings with Stakeholders

19. Framework for Monitoring the ERGP Implementation To fast-track the Implementation/execution of the ERGP, the under listed monitoring processes should be undertaken by all the tiers of government (Federal, States & Local Governments): • Identify all the ERGP Interventions to be implemented at the Federal, States and Local Governments supported with a Result Chain/Logical Frame Work for each Project to be implemented. (Provide capacity building and resources for M&E and MDAs to do this) • Set Indicators, Baselines and Targets for all the level of results the ERGP intends to achieve (Provide capacity building and resources for M&E and MDAs to do this). • Establish Means Of Verification/Data Collection Tools to support credible data collection on the projects and indicators for the interventions ( Provide the tools and capacity building to MDAs to use the tools) • Establish an effective Data Collection strategy (support the actual data collection on the interventions with adequate resources by MDAs for Administrative Data and NBS/SBS for Survey Data)

20. Framework for Monitoring the ERGP Implementation • Develop a robust Data Analysis mechanisms ( provide the data analysis tools/soft wares and build capacity of the M&E staff and MDAs on how do it) • Establish a robust Reporting framework (using appropriate reporting and communication formats) for the ERGP interventions (build capacity of M&E & MDA Staff to Report effectively and adequate resources to produce reports on appropriate formats) • Conduct effective Performance Review And Feed Back Session with all the key stakeholders concerned with the ERGP at the Federal, State and Local Government Levels to discuss the Performance Reports on Implementation . (Performance Review And Feed Back Session with all the key stakeholders should be done at regular intervals i.e. monthly, quarterly etc.)

21. Framework for Evaluation of the ERGP Plan Implementation To assess the relevance, effectiveness, efficiency (value for money), impact and sustainability of the interventions of the ERGP and its management , the Plan needs to undertake effective evaluations. An for that to happen, there under listed evaluation processes should be undertaken: • Develop an Evaluation Plan and Strategy Document for Federal and States that highlights the following: • Identified and prioritised ERGP projects, programs and issues to under go evaluation study by federal and states. • Establish the questions the evaluations seeks to answer on the projects and programmesprioritised for by the federal and states. • Develop a description of the evaluation approaches for the prioritised interventions in the federal and states. • Develop a description of the data collection methods that will be used and the process for analysing the results, • Establish ethical considerations to guide the evaluations at federal or State.

22. Framework for Evaluation of the ERGP Plan Implementation • Develop proposals for how the evaluation will be reported and disseminated • Provide a budget line under annual appropriations • Establish/ Agree on a timeline for conducting the evaluations. • Conduct the Evaluations as identified in the Evaluation Strategy Document. • Conduct effective Performance Review And Feed Back Session with all the key stakeholders concerned with the ERGP at the Federal, State and Local Government Levels to discuss the Evaluation Reports.(Performance Review And Feed Back Session with all the key stakeholders should be done at regular intervals i.e. monthly, quarterly etc.) • NB: Evaluations for credibility purpose should be led by people external to the ERGP/Project management implementation teams .Members of the implementing teams can however participatein the evaluation process as an opportunity for capacity building and institutional strengthening.

23. Conclusion In conclusion, for the States and Federal Government to leverage on the power of the M&E System to support the execution/implementation of the ERGP, the under listed efforts to strengthen the capacity of their M&E system to deliver the desired results should be embarked: • Embark on aggressive sensitization/advocacy of the political leadership and senior-level leadership on the relevance of the M&E processes to have their buy-in • Secure high-level statements of endorsement from Mr. President, Mr. Vice President, State Governors, Ministers, Permanent Secretaries, Heads of Ministries, Commissioners and so forth on strong need for M&E for ERGP. • Embark on aggressive institutional/individual capacity building on the M&E processes needed to deliver the ERGP

24. Conclusion • Ensure frequent repetition of message of support at meetings of ministry senior executives, section heads, other staff on the merits of M&E for ERGP Execution. • Awareness-raising seminars/workshops should be conducted to demystify M&E, provide comfort about its doability, explain what’s in it for participants. • Enact law or regulations mandating use of M&E processes in the ERGP delivery . • Withhold part of funding from ministries/agencies that fail to conduct M&E of ERGP. • Provide recognition or financial incentives to ministries that conduct M&E in the delivery of ERGP.

25. Thank You