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The GOES-R Proving Ground 2009 Spring Experiment

The GOES-R Proving Ground 2009 Spring Experiment. Christopher W. Siewert Research Associate, SPC GOES-R Proving Ground Liaison Univ. of Oklahoma – Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies Dr. Russell S. Schneider Chief, Science Support Branch NWS Storm Prediction Center.

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The GOES-R Proving Ground 2009 Spring Experiment

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  1. The GOES-R Proving Ground 2009 Spring Experiment Christopher W. Siewert Research Associate, SPC GOES-R Proving Ground Liaison Univ. of Oklahoma – Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies Dr. Russell S. Schneider Chief, Science Support Branch NWS Storm Prediction Center Visit to NWS Headquarters – July 1, 2009

  2. Topics • Introduction to GOES-R • Forecaster Needs • The GOES-R Proving Ground at the SPC • The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed • GOES-R Proving Ground Activities • Example Cases • Lessons Learned • Future of GOES-R Proving Ground Efforts at the SPC

  3. GOES-R Improvements Provided by Jim Gurka – GOES-R Program Office

  4. GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager Current GOES Imager Provided by Jim Gurka – GOES-R Program Office

  5. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Calendar Year Backup GOES 10 Satellite is operational beyond design life GOES 11 GOES West On-orbit GOES storage GOES 12 GOES East Operational GOES 13 On-orbit Spare GOES O GOES P GOES R GOES S As of January 5, 2009 GOES-R Timetable Provided by Jim Gurka – GOES-R Program Office

  6. GOES-R Baseline and Option 2 Products

  7. Forecaster Needs • Incorporating new products into a forecaster’s routine difficult • Must use constantly to gain comfort • Must replace something currently used that they already have confidence in • Must have knowledge on product limitations • Products must provide information already not available

  8. GOES-R Proving Ground at the SPC • Integrate GOES-R products into real-time operational testing prior to launch • Day-1 readiness • Goals • Provide product developers with useful feedback on product usefulness/performance through detailed interactions with forecasters and real-time testing • Provide forecasters with product education and quality display • Aid successful AWIPS-2 integration • Bring a satellite perspective to the heart of radar country

  9. National Weather Center SPC Norman WFO NSSL HWT WDTB OU-CIMMS OU School of Meteorology Private Sector (nearby)

  10. NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed EWP EFP Experimental Forecast Program Experimental Warning Program GOES-R PG Detection and prediction of hazardous weather events up to several hours in advance Prediction of hazardous weather events from a few hours to a week in advance

  11. GOES-R Proving Ground Resources • Dedicated training room with two N-AWIPS workstations and a PC • N-AWIPS and AWIPS-2 workstations co-located in the HWT with VORTEX-II operations • GOES-R Proving Ground products also available on HWT workstations

  12. GOES-R Proving Ground Spring Experiment Activities • In concert with EWP, EFP and VORTEX-II during April-June 2009 severe weather season • 2-3 visitors per day • This year’s participants (13): Kris Bedka (UW-CIMSS), Eric Bruning (Univ. of Maryland), Lee Cronce (UW-CIMSS), Wayne Feltz (UW-CIMSS), Kevin Fuell (NASA SPoRT), Jordan Gerth (UW-CIMSS), Steve Goodman (GOES-R Program Office), Jim Gurka (GOES-R Program Office), Dan Lindsey (CIRA), Bob Rabin (NSSL/UW-CIMSS), Justin Sieglaff (UW-CIMSS), Bill Sjoberg (NWS), Gary Wade (STAR/NESDIS) • Interact with EWP/EFP/VORTEX-II forecasters on a constant basis • Provide local expertise on satellite products/techniques • Expose non-satellite community to satellite capabilities • Hourly convective forecast activities during convectively active periods • Constant interaction with products in real-time forecast environment • Daily morning post-mortem analysis of product performance

  13. Initial Products & Examples • Four GOES-R Proving Ground products available at the SPC for 2009 Spring Experiment • 15-minute Cloud-top Cooling (CTC) Rate (UW-CIMSS) • Monitors cloud-top IR brightness temperature based on an operational cloud mask using a box-averaging method • Convective Initiation (CI) Nowcast (UW-CIMSS) • Based on CTC product with more stringent requirements for cloud-top microphysical properties • 10-km Total Lighting Source Density (SPoRT/NSSL) • Re-sampled from three LMA networks (Huntsville, AL, Washington DC and Norman, OK) • 0-1 Hour Probability of Severe Hail (CIRA)* • Based on RUC objective analysis fields and cloud-top temperature**

  14. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0348 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX TO THE BIG COUNTRY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 262048Z - 262215Z UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH OVER TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSTM INITIATION INTO LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE BUOYANCY APPEARS MAXIMIZED. BUT...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 22Z ALONG VARIOUS SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS W-CNTRL TX INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. DESPITE MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. 20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A MESOLOW AROUND 20 N MWL WITH SEVERAL RATHER DIFFUSE TROUGHS/BOUNDARIES REMAINING EVIDENT IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION NOW OVER ERN TX. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED CU/TCU INCREASING FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. MODIFIED 12Z MAF RAOB SUGGESTS THIS AREA IS UNCAPPED TO MIXED-LAYER PARCELS. GIVEN TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AOA 40 DEG F...DRY MICROBURSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS PERSIST ACROSS NERN TX...ALTHOUGH SHRINKING IN AREAL EXTENT AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MIX NWD. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE NEAR-TERM MAY REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY LARGER-SCALE DESCENT IN THE AFTERMATH OF MCS ALONG THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. OPERATIONAL AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE VARY SUBSTANTIALLY WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS N-CNTRL TX. IF IT DOES OCCUR...THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

  15. 2145 2202 2232 2215

  16. Expanding Cloud Edges Thin Cirrus

  17. Lessons Learned • CI/CTC • Diagnostic over high CAPE, extremely moist environments • Masked where thick cirrus present • Thin cirrus over land/water/water clouds and expanding edge false alarms • Lead time ~15-30 minutes over radar (for successful nowcasts) • Full disk 30 min. scan limitations (false alarms/missed nowcasts) • Cloud detection limitations due to poor spatial/spectral resolution • Instability mask limitations apparent for terrain induced CI • Instantaneous fields more useful to forecasters than accumulated fields • Overlay on visible/IR essential to forecasters • Stippled transparent display somewhat useful to forecasters • Continue CTC after CI occurs (storm severity) interest from forecasters • Effective for terrain/dryline convection • CI product misses some CTC signals of CI • Works well in rapid scan operations • Nighttime eclipse period restrictions

  18. More Lessons Learned • GLM • Flash density data needed to be true GLM proxy • GLM proxy shows similar patterns to 1-km product • GLM proxy signals generally weaker than 1-km product… due to averaging over 10-km box • GLM proxy lightning jump signals seen ~2 mins after 1-km product… again, due to averaging over 10-km box • Forecasters would like to see map of LMA weak areas • Forecaster suggestion for gridded overlay provided • Dataflow issues resolved (crashes, loss of data due to LMA outages) • Severe Hail Probability • Suffers during 3-hour full disk periods • 0-1 hour product data received too late to be useful in real-time operations • Correlates well to areas where severe hail was reported, but not necessarily during the forecast time period • Longer forecasts (0-3 and 0-6 hour) may have very low probabilities • Significant improvements expected with increased satellite data utilization • Small, cold cloud tops difficult to resolve by product

  19. Even More Lessons Learned • General • Refine experimental forecasts to test evolving product spectrum • Flexible experiment hours (more overlap with EWP / VORTEX-II / unique weather situations) • General display improvements (colorbar thresholds adjusted and made static, colorbar locations, labels, etc…) • General dataflow issues resolved (all products arrive consistently and on time) • Provide improved products for use in EWP • Provide product training for visiting forecasters • Lack of archive capability apparent • Product readiness

  20. Opportunities to Grow • 2010 Plans: • Provide select products for real-time testing within SPC operations • Invitations and announcements for 2010 Spring Experiment in January/February… experiment likely begins in late April • Expanded product suite possibilities • TPW/LI/CAPE • Continuous CTC • Enhanced-V/overshooting tops • LMA 10-km flash density and pixel-based trends • Ingest LMA data from Cape Canaveral network • 0-6 hour severe hail, wind and tornado forecast • Synthetic satellite/MODIS imagery • Nearcast product • Additional Experiments • Fire weather/heavy rain experiment (August) • Winter weather experiment (December/January) • Expand integration with HWT forecast/warning programs • Increased interaction with operational community towards common goals (ie – warn-on-forecast) • Interact with WFOs already using LMA data operationally for training assistance (ie - HUN)

  21. 3-5 November 2009 Monona Terrace Convention Center Madison, Wisconsin 6th GOES Users’Conference http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/meetings/guc2009/ Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites: http://www.goes-r.gov Special Event on 2 November: 50th Anniversary of the 1st Meteorological Satellite Experiment

  22. Questions? chris.siewert@noaa.gov http://www.goes-r.gov/ http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/proving-ground.html

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