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Yucheng Song and Zoltan Toth

Update on the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program. Yucheng Song and Zoltan Toth. EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA. Meeting of the working group on Space-based Lidar winds, Miami, Florida Feb 6-9. Acknowledgments. NWS field offices, HPC/NCEP and SDMs NOAA G-IV and the USAFR C-130 flight crews

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Yucheng Song and Zoltan Toth

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  1. Update on the Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program Yucheng Song and Zoltan Toth EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA Meeting of the working group on Space-based Lidar winds, Miami, Florida Feb 6-9 Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  2. Acknowledgments • NWS field offices, HPC/NCEP and SDMs • NOAA G-IV and the USAFR C-130 flight crews • CARCAH (John Pavone) • Sharanya MajumdarUniv. of Miami/CIMAS • Jack Woollen - EMC • Russ Treadon - EMC • Mark Iredell - EMC • Istvan Szunyogh – Univ. of Maryland • Wayman Baker, JCSDA • + others who have contributed! Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  3. Collaborators • Sharanya MajumdarUniv. of Miami/CIMAS • Craig BishopNaval Research Lab • Christopher VeldenUniv. of Wisc./CIMSS • Milija ZupanskiColo. State Univ./CIRA • Thomas HamillNOAA/Climate Diagnostics Lab • Istvan SzunyoghUniv. of Maryland • Robert AtlasNASA/GSFC • David Emmitt, Simpson Weather Associates, SMA Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  4. Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR 2006) Program • Took place 27 Jan – 9 March 2006 • Dropwinsonde observations taken over the NE Pacific by aircraft operated by NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center (G-IV) and the US Air Force Reserve (C-130s). • Observations are adaptive – • collected only prior to significant winter weather events of interest • in areas that might influence forecast the most. • Operational since January 2001 • 26 flights, around 342 dropsondes this winter which is reduced from 500 drops last year Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  5. Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program Objective: Improve Forecasts ofSignificant Winter Weather Events Through TargetedObservations in Data Sparse Northeast Pacific Ocean Approach: 1) Collected Only Prior to SignificantWinter Weather Events of Interest 2) Collected in Areas that Influence the Forecast the Most Results: About 70% of Targeted Numerical Weather Predictions Improve Significantly Due to Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program (Operational since January 2001)

  6. ETKF-based targeting strategy The ETKF spotted the target area Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  7. Overall results for Temperature Of the cases: 22 improved 1 neutral 7 degraded RMS errors averaged in the verification regions for forecasts with and without WSR data Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  8. Overall results for Vector Wind Of all cases: 19 improved 0 neutral 11 degraded RMS errors averaged in the verification regions for forecasts with and without WSR data Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  9. Overall results for Specific humidity Of all cases: 19 improved 0 neutral 11 degraded RMS errors averaged in the verification regions for forecasts with and without WSR data Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  10. Forecast Verification for Wind RMS error reduction vs. forecast lead time Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  11. Individual Case Comparison 1 denotes positive effect 0 denotes neutral effect -1 denotes negative effect VR OBSDATE P T V OVERALL REGION FHOUR W 20060127 1 1 1 1 124W ,45N 48 E 20060129 -1 -1 1 -1 75W ,40N 72 E 20060201 1 1 1 1 83W ,36N 72 W 20060203 -1 1 -1 -1 124W ,42N 36 E 20060203 1 1 1 1 84W ,35N 48 E 20060204 -1 -1 1 -1 68W ,45N 48 AK 20060206 -1 1 1 1 140W ,60N 24 W 20060209 -1 -1 -1 -1 122W ,45N 60 AK 20060210 1 1 1 1 131W ,55N 60 AK 20060212 1 -1 1 1 140W ,60N 12 E 20060214 -1 -1 -1 -1 88W ,42N 84 E 20060221 -1 1 1 1 87W ,42N 48 C 20060221 1 -1 1 1 95W ,33N 48 W 20060223 1 1 -1 1 120W ,47N 24 W 20060225 -1 -1 1 -1 122W ,40N 72 W 20060226 1 -1 -1 -1 122W ,40N 36 AK 20060226 1 1 1 1 150W ,60N 48 W 20060227 -1 1 1 1 118W ,34N 36 H 20060227 -1 1 1 1 158W ,22N 84 W 20060301 1 -1 1 1 124W ,42N 24 W 20060303 -1 1 1 1 123W ,45N 84 W 20060304 1 1 1 1 123W ,40N 48 W 20060305 -1 1 1 1 121W ,40N 36 W 20060307 1 1 -1 1 122W ,46N 48 C 20060307 1 1 1 1 90W ,37N 60 E 20060307 -1 -1 1 -1 85W ,45N 84 E 20060309 -1 1 1 1 80W ,50N 84 19 OVERALL POSITIVE 0 OVERALL NEUTRAL 8 OVERALL NEGATIVE 70% improved 30% degraded OVERALL EFFECT: Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  12. Impact of WSR targeted dropsondes (2006) Binned Impact 1 Jan – 28 Feb 2006 00UTC Analysis Beneficial (-0.01 to -0.1 J kg-1) Non-beneficial (0.01 to 0.1 J kg-1) NOAA-WSRP 191 Profiles Small impact (-0.01 to 0.01 J kg-1) Average dropsonde obs impact is beneficial and ~2-3x greater than average radiosonde impact (From Dr. Rolf Langland, Naval Research Lab.) Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  13. Composite summary maps 139.6W 59.8N 36hrs (7 cases) 92W 38.6N 60hrs (5 cases) 80W 38.6N 63.5hrs (8 cases) 122W 37.5N 49.5hrs (8 cases) Verification Region Verification Region Shaded is the ETKF derived error reduction in Verification region and contours are sea level pressure

  14. ETKF predicted signal propagation Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  15. 36 hrs (Alaska) 1422km 49.5hrs (West Coast) 2034km 60hrs (Central U.S) 4064km 63.5hrs (East Coast) 5143km The above table listed forecast hours and the distance between the centers of sensitivity and verification regions Forecast hours vs. Distance Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  16. WSR overall statistics (2004-2006) 25+22+19= 66 OVERALL POSITIVE CASES. 0+1+0 = 1 OVERALL NEUTRAL CASES. 10+7+8 = 25 OVERALL NEGATIVE CASES. 71.7% improved 27.1% degraded OVERALL EFFECT: Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  17. Future Work • Improve ensemble products to give better guidance to HPC and SDMs • using “energy norms” in addition to the conventional products • Better ensemble products • Improve targeting method based on ETKF method with increasing resolution and ensemble membership • Explore parallel structure of the codes • Improve verification techniques • High resolution (T382L64?) • WSR 2007 increased more ensemble members from ECMWF, NCEP • Moisture data will be assimilated in the verification • Tropical flareups and Arctic signals – T-PARC and IPY Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  18. WSR2007 – More ensemble members-Cleaner signals

  19. Ensemble based guidance Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  20. Tropical Flare-ups by IR Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  21. Tropical Flare-ups captured by ETKF Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  22. Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY Winter storm reconnaissance and driftsonde NRL P-3 and HIAPER with the DLR Wind Lidar T-PARC Experiments and Collaborative Efforts Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  23. Winter component of T-PARC • December 08 to February 09 • Improving adaptive targeting methods for 3-5 days • ET • SV (possible collaboration with NRL) • Adaptive use of DWL, Driftsondes, Radiosondes, special IPY observations as well as satellite data can enhance high impact weather events in Arctic and CONUS, Enhanced Siberian Observation network, MTSAT rapid scan, Polar orbiting platforms Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  24. Goal • Contribute to the design and utilization of optimal global observing network, including adaptive components • Contribute to Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) • Improved forecasts translate into enhanced guidance for users and real life applications • Develop new products (sea ice, freezing spray, storm surge) • Probabilistic approach to model uncertainties, downscaling/post-processing better representation in model of high impact weather events Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  25. Data issues (AMMA example) An example showingTrack-Check Problems with African AMDAR Data during AMMA period Courtesy of Dr. Bradley Ballish Daily take-in of the AMMA data for Temperature and wind at one station Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  26. Background information - ETKF Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

  27. Continued Yucheng Song & Zoltan Toth

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