The Ins and Outs of Campaign Finance

1. The Ins and Outs of Campaign Finance Paul S. Herrnson University of Connecticut State Legislative Leaders Foundation May 7, 2015

2. Contemporary Elections • Candidates must wage two campaigns • Incumbents have huge advantages • Campaign finance system has disintegrated • New possibilities, pressures, and pitfalls for donors • It’s not always a race between 2 candidates anymore

3. The Two Campaigns • The campaign for votes • The campaign for resources

4. Campaign for Votes • Logistics • Strategy • Message • Communications • Motivate supporters, win persuadable voters, depress turnout for opposition

5. Incumbency Advantages • Prior to the campaign season • District composition • High visibility & popularity • During the campaign season • Quality of the opposition • Head start/early lead • Expectations • Voting cues • “The cycle” • Most incumbents win, but many run scared...

6. Campaign for Resources • Fundraising • Logistics • Begins early, ends after the election • State or nationwide • Steps • Identify a financial constituency • Develop a pitch • Start local, build out • Match techniques to donors • Political consulting talent • Endorsements • Outside spending groups

7. Who Gives and Spends? • Interest Groups • Political action committees (PACs) • Corporations, unions, trade associations, others • Political parties • Party politicians • Individuals • Small $’s from district and elsewhere • Large $’s from the wealthy areas

8. The Fundraising Pyramid Big $ Egos Access Personal Solicitation Mid $ Social Fundraising Events Direct Response: -Direct Mail -Telemarketing Low $ The Cause Source: Nancy Bocskor

9. Incumbency Advantages • Experienced organization • Tried and true fundraising list and pitch • Money is drawn to power • Expectations • Dynamics • Start early (continuous f-r) • Raise lots $ scare off competition OR keep raising $ • Challenger disadvantages • Opposite situation • “Catch 22”

10. The Campaign Finance System has Disintegrated Court rulings, regulatory decisions… From 3 Letters… PAC (political action committee) ….To Alphabet Soup PACs Super PACs (IE-only committees) 527 committees 501(c)s / social welfare organizations Corporations, trade associations, labor unions, others

11. Interest Group Spending in the 2014 Congressional Elections Source: Center for Responsive Politics data.

12. Single-Candidate Super PACs Source: Center for Responsive Politics data.

13. Possibilities, Pressures, & Pitfalls for Donors • Court rulings, regulatory decisions, 24-hour news cycle … • Individuals can do almost anything ...may be asked to do everything • The almost can backfire … and everyone can learn about it

14. Financiers of Elections Can… • Contribute to a candidate, party, traditional PAC, 527, 501(c), super PAC, single-candidate super PAC • No aggregate limit • Make unlimited expenditures • Same for corporations, unions, other groups • Create an organization or network of org’s • Limited, disclosed contributions to regulated committees • Unlimited, undisclosed contributions to unregulated committees • Do nothing? • Depends on motives for contributing • Balance: impact on election and policy v. public exposure

15. 2 Financiers, 2 Reasons to Run Scared

16. Koch Bros., 2014 • 43,900 ads run this cycle (Jan 2013 – Aug 2014) • On course to spend $290 million in 2014

17. It’s Not Always a Race Between Two Candidates • Outside spending can be substantial • In 2014… • Parties and interest groups outspent both candidates in 9 Senate and 19 House races • Difficult for candidates • Plan their campaigns • Disseminate their messages • Avoid the money chase • Voters hear a cacophony of voices • Financed by wealthy individuals & groups

18. Questions? Thank you

20. Source: Paul S. Herrnson, Congressional Elections (Sage/CQ 2012).