Are you ready for the Influenza Pandemic?

1. Are you ready for the Influenza Pandemic?

2. Alain Normand Manager, Emergency Measures and Corporate Security, City of Brampton, Ontario President, Ontario Association of Emergency Managers

3. Avian Flu • The lion, the bear and the chicken

4. Emergency Management 101 5 basic parameters for intervention • Prevention: reducing probability • Mitigation: reducing impact • Preparedness: readiness to respond or cope during emergencies • Response: direct intervention • Recovery: return to normal or near normal

5. Facing the Pandemic Prevention: • Almost impossible, very unlikely • Quarantine uncertain • Closing borders unrealistic Not “if” but “when” • Three main Pandemic Influenza crisis in last century: 1918 Spanish Flu, 1957 Asian Flu, 1968 Hong-Kong Flu.We are overdue for the next one. • Travel time and globalization

6. Absenteeism Factor 1 - Absenteeism foreseen for up to 50% of staff. • Multiple contingency plans may be required to address the various possible scenarios • 10% absenteeism • 30% absenteeism • 50% absenteeism

7. Length of illness Factor 2 – Most individuals affected will be ill for six to twelve days, many will develop complication requiring prolonged care, some will die • Note: not everyone may fall sick at once (domino effect)

8. Duration Factor 3 - Duration of first wave estimated from 6 weeks to 4 months. • Always some percentage of staff absent throughout this period

9. Second Wave Factor 4 - Second wave expected six to ten months after end of first wave, could have worse impact than first wave.

10. Impact • Everyone will be affected • Prevention is limited GAP

11. Impact • People who won’t come to work: • Deceased (.03 to .1%) • Hospitalised (.1 to .3%) • Clinically ill (30 to 50%) • Staying home with sick relatives (?) • People afraid to go out of home (?) • People affected by other diseases (?)

12. Economic Impact • Up to 50% of workforce absent for a period of time • All sectors will be affected by the workforce shortage • Some sectors will also be affected by reduced consumerism, shortage of supplies, travel restrictions and border closures (I.e. Tourism & entertainment)

13. Facing the Pandemic Mitigation: • Vaccine: delayed availability, gap • Antiviral: limited efficiency, limited access • Social distancing policies • Public Education Overall: limited mitigation possibilities

14. Facing the Pandemic Response: • Health system already taxed • Public expectation high • Resources low • Health workers also affected by influenza Limited capacity for response

15. Reality • Failure of the medical profession to address the real issues • Limited evaluation of the impact mostly restricted to health aspect • Very little Emergency Planning, no Continuity Planning, no Economic Recovery Planning

16. Municipal Pandemic Planning What will government really do: • 2002 Snowstorm – “Stay home” • 2003 Blackout – “Stay home” • 2004 Snowstorm – “Stay home” • Pandemic – • Pandemic – “Stay home” 16

17. Municipal Pandemic Planning What will happen: • School closures for 6 weeks • Transit closures • Border restrictions in Canada • Travel restrictions in other countries • Close all public assembly locations • Restrict meetings • Encourage stay at home strategies 17

18. Municipal Pandemic Planning Pandemics are not all about health • So far government Pandemic Plans are one-sided • Real emergency is a workforce and economic emergency • Illness related absenteeism = low • Fear related absenteeism = high • There lies the real problem 18

19. Reality • In short: When the next influenza pandemic arrives, we will all be on our own.

20. Municipal Pandemic Planning What can be done? • Be aware • Think critically, question everything • Everything this session has taught you • Plan for the long-term not just Avian Flu • Resist complacency 20

21. Municipal Pandemic Planning Two strategies: Prevention & Preparedness and two levels: Personal & Corporate • Personal prevention: healthy living, hand washing • Personal preparedness: stockpiling, reducing contacts • Corporate prevention & preparedness: listen to the next presentation for this part 21

22. Facing the Pandemic Recovery: • Health recovery – rapid once vaccine available • Psycho-social recovery – could have lingering impact, grief counselling, impact on education • Economic recovery – long-term impact perceived (post-pandemic recession?) Long-term process

23. Preparedness • 3 steps • Assessment • Planning • Implementation

24. Preparedness step 1: Assessment Taking stock of the situation: Government • Impact Identified • Public Expectation Identified • Available Resources In progress

25. Preparedness step 2: Planning Four categories of plans • Health Plans • Emergency Response Plans • Economic Resiliency Plans • Continuity of Government Plans

26. Preparedness step 2: Planning 1. Health Plans • Vaccine & antiviral distribution • Who: enumeration process, priorities • How: establishing distribution system • Policies • School & daycare closures • Limiting social & business gatherings • Cancelling transit

27. Preparedness step 2: Planning 1. Health Plans • Communications • Handwashing • Social distancing, one-metre rule • Environmental cleaning • “If in doubt, stay home” rule • Use of Personal Protective Equipment

28. Preparedness step 2: Planning 1. Health Plans • Surge Capacity • Retired workers • Auxiliary workers upgraded • Alternative health facilities • Mass Fatality Plan • Funeral homes • Arenas

29. Preparedness step 2: Planning 2. Emergency Response Plans Inter-municipal Planning Committee • Monitoring & assessment of impact • Essential services (other emergencies) • Crisis Intervention (EOC) • Communications • Social support, volunteers • Mutual assistance • Rationing

30. Preparedness step 2: Planning 3. Economic Resiliency Plans Economic Emergency Planning Committee • Economic Development Office • Emergency Measures Office • Board of Trade • Other Business Associations Tools • Business Emergency Network • Communication channels • Support tools, economic recovery plans

31. Preparedness step 2: Planning 4. Continuity of Municipal Services Plans Continuity Planning Committee • Essential services, 9-1-1 • Call Centre, City Hall Reception • Traffic Signals, Road Operations & Maint. • Animal Services • Clerk’s office, Building Dept. • Transit ??

32. Preparedness step 2: Planning 4. Continuity of Municipal Services Plans Continuity Planning Committee • Support services: • IT • HR • Payroll • Security • Fleet maintenance • Finance

33. Preparedness step 3: Implementation • Communications: internal, external • Equipping, stockpiling • Training • Testing??

34. Strategies Prevention: • Hand-washing techniques communications, antibacterial soap distribution • Protective equipment i.e. gloves, masks • Social distancing measures: 1 metre rule, limit handshakes • Health messages: “if in doubt stay home” • Link to Municipal Health Dept. communications

35. Strategies Monitoring and decision making: • Reporting system for absenteeism • Central coordination • Policy change approval process • Internal communications

36. Strategies Contingency planning • Virtual operations • i.Work at home tools • ii.Online meetings, conference calls • iii.Increased communications tools • Reduced interaction • i.Shift work • ii.Remote locations

37. Strategies Contingency planning (cont) • Reduced services i.Online services ii.Postpone programs and/or closefacilities: 1.Impact on clients, stakeholders 2.Lost wages, HR policies 3.Communications: internal & external • Cross-training i.According to BIA (critical services) ii.Key staff identification iii.Skills inventory v.Detailed procedures, 3 steps (write, edit, test) Union involvement

38. Questions?

39. Thank you. beminfo@brampton.ca www.brampton.ca/emergency_measures/index.tml Also www.oaem.ca President2006@oaem.ca