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INP-MAY 03

INP-MAY 03. Inland Navigation Planning Current Practice May 9, 2003. Paul J. Hanley Economist, CELRD-CM-P 513 684-3598 http://paul.j.hanley@usace.army.mil. INP-MAY 03. Planning Process Evaluation Framework Evaluation Procedures Practical Issues. I. Planning Process.

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INP-MAY 03

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  1. INP-MAY 03 Inland Navigation Planning Current Practice May 9, 2003 Paul J. Hanley Economist, CELRD-CM-P 513 684-3598 http://paul.j.hanley@usace.army.mil

  2. INP-MAY 03 • Planning Process • Evaluation Framework • Evaluation Procedures • Practical Issues

  3. I. Planning Process

  4. INP-MAY 03 “Planning Guidance Notebook” Ref. ER 1105-2-100, 22 April 2000 http://www.usace.army.mil/inet/functions/cw/cecwp/General_guidance/guidance.htm

  5. INP-MAY 03 Six Steps • Identifying Problems and Opportunities • Inventorying and Forecasting Conditions • Formulating Alternative Plans • Evaluating Alternative Plans • Comparing Alternative Plans • Selecting a Plan

  6. INP-MAY 03 II. Evaluation Framework • NED Benefits • Without-Project Condition • With-Project Condition • Evaluation Procedures

  7. $ Improved Current Navigation Navigation System System Cost Cost Alternate Benefits of Mode Cost Current System Demand for Transport O Q Q Tonnage 1 2 Benefits of Improved System Current Practice and Issues Development of the Without Condition is the Starting Point for Successful Analysis • Determine structural reliability (condition) • Optimize non-structural management measures (capacity) • Estimate traffic movements (demand) • Evaluate incremental benefits of alternate maintenance scenarios and non-structural measures

  8. Project Evaluation III. Evaluation Procedures

  9. INP-MAY 03 “ ….evaluation of navigation projects shall be conducted following the process described in para 2-3e of this regulation.” (ER 1105-2-100)

  10. INP-MAY 03 “ …. The base economic benefit of a navigation project is the reduction in the value of resources required to transport commodities.” (ER 1105-2-100)

  11. INP-MAY 03 “ ….ten steps are used to estimate benefits associated with improvements of the inland navigation system.” (ER 1105-2-100)

  12. INP-MAY 03 Step 1 – Identify the Commodity Types (ER 1105-2-100)

  13. LRD Navigation Overview Major Users of Waterway Transportation • 1. High Dependence • Coal Mining • Electric Generating • Coke/Steel Production • Petrol-Chemicals • Construction • Low Dependence • Agriculture • Wood Products Ohio River Basin

  14. INP-MAY 03 Step 2 – Identify the Study Area (ER 1105-2-100)

  15. INP-MAY 03 Step 3 – Determine Current Commodity Flow (ER 1105-2-100)

  16. INP-MAY 03 Step 4 – Determine Current Cost of Waterway Use (ER 1105-2-100)

  17. INP-MAY 03 Step 5 – Determine Current Cost of Alternative Movement (ER 1105-2-100)

  18. INP-MAY 03 Step 6 – Forecast Potential Waterway Traffic by Commodity (ER 1105-2-100)

  19. INP-MAY 03 Traffic Scenarios

  20. INP-MAY 03 Step 7 – Determine Future Cost of Alternative Mode (ER 1105-2-100)

  21. INP-MAY 03 Step 8 – Determine Future Cost of Waterway Use (ER 1105-2-100)

  22. INP-MAY 03 Step 9 – Determine Waterway Use, With and Without-Project (ER 1105-2-100)

  23. Current Practice and Issues Incremental Benefit Stream

  24. INP-MAY 03 Step 10 – Compute NED Benefits (ER 1105-2-100)

  25. “Hell Sundance, If it was easy, everybody would be doin’ it!” Butch Cassidy

  26. INP-MAY 03 IV. Practical Issues

  27. INP-MAY 03 • Selected Problems • Shippers & Congestion • Capacity Management • Traffic Scenarios • Externalities • Disjointed incrementalism

  28. INP-MAY 03 “Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded” Yogi Berra

  29. Current Practice and Issues Modeling Lock Congestion • Discrete-event simulation • WAM requires detailed data input • Shipment is randomly generated using LPMS distributions • Based on the tow characteristics & project state, shipment is processed • Statistics are accumulated and an average delay for the year is calculated Tonnage-Transit Curve WAM Simulation Results

  30. INP-MAY 03 ORS Rate-savings Ranked Movements US Army Corpsof Engineers Great Lakes & Ohio River Division

  31. 10 20 30 9 19 29 August September Average Daily Delay Per Tow 6 $ 15 million 4 Days 2 J.T.Myers L&D 0 1989

  32. INP-MAY 03 • Selected Problems • Shippers & Congestion • Capacity Management • Traffic Scenarios • Externalities • Disjointed incrementalism

  33. INP-MAY 03 • Capacity Management • Small Scale Improvements • Helper Boats • Lockage Policies • Scheduled Lockages • Congestion Fees

  34. INP-MAY 03 Tonnage-Transit Relationships US Army Corpsof Engineers Great Lakes & Ohio River Division

  35. INP-MAY 03 • Selected Problems • Shippers & Congestion • Capacity Management • Traffic Scenarios • Externalities • Disjointed incrementalism

  36. INP-MAY 03 Traffic Scenarios

  37. Population  Electricity demand Income growth  Electricity demand Energy intensity  Electricity demand Government utility regulation  Electricity demand and coal use Key Drivers for Coal

  38. INP-MAY 03 • Selected Problems • Shippers & Congestion • Capacity Management • Traffic Scenarios • Externalities • Disjointed incrementalism

  39. Other Transportation Impacts Air Quality Highway Safety

  40. Externality Costs Associated With An Unscheduled 180 Day Closure of Chickamauga Lock Air Pollution 26% Congestion Incidents 54% 7% Accidents and Deaths 13% Pavement Damage 0%

  41. Externality Costs Per Ton of DivertedTraffic 25 Dollars Per Ton Ranges 20 from 2.3 to 19.6 15 1.7 million tons of Dollars actual and potential traffic are diverted to 10 truck in the study 5 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year

  42. INP-MAY 03 • Selected Problems • Shippers & Congestion • Capacity Management • Traffic Scenarios • Externalities • Disjointed incrementalism

  43. “…better data will help the system to be understood. Reiterating what we've known for ages – you can't manage what you can't measure -- better information should lead to better infrastructure utilization.” Stephen Van Beek, Associate Deputy Secretary of Transportation INP-MAY 03 "disjointed incrementalism"

  44. INP-MAY 03 • Recurring Themes • Uncertainty in the Present • Uncertainty in the Future • Comprehensiveness • External Pressures

  45. INP-MAY 03 • Planning Process • Evaluation Framework • Evaluation Procedures • Practical Issues

  46. Current Practice and Issues System Modeling Are our analytical models appropriate to the task? • Demand - ARS • Supply - ATC • Consumer surplus • Producer surplus • Without project • With project • Incremental analysis

  47. Current Practice and Issues Non-Structural Alternatives Can we better manage the existing system? • helper boats • lockage policy • cut limits • traffic management • traffic scheduling • lockage fees • small cap improvements

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