Influence of Popular Media on Youth: Politics & Voting

1. Influence of Popular Media on Youth: Politics & Voting

2. Effect of Popular Culture • Popular culture has more influence than campaigns. • Popular culture tends to polarize the electorate.

3. Pop Culture Events and the 2004 Election

4. Janet Jackson’s Super Bowl performance had a distinct impact on the 2004 election. No popular culture event had a bigger impact on politics in 2004. The Right is energized, using this event as a launching pad to question the moral fabric of America. Ramifications: • The FCC fines Viacom $550,00 • The FCC changes the amount of fines levied to first offenders from $32,500 up to $500,000 • Shock jock Howard Stern is dropped in six markets by Clear Channel communications as the media giant fears more fines. During the live taping of the Super Bowl, Janet Jackson’s right breast is exposed when Justin Timberlake pulls off part of her costume. Jackson and Timberlake call it a “wardrobe malfunction.”

5. Fahrenheit 9/11 – The Two Hour Political Advertisement 2004 was the first Presidential election where motion pictures were used as political advertisements. Ramifications: • The film further polarizes the country. Many see it as false and inflammatory, while others view it as an eye-opening look at the Bush Administration. • Although very popular with Democratic base voters and moviegoers under 30, the film galvanizes the Right and fails to persuade voters to turn Bush out of office. To many voters, Michael Moore typifies Democrats’ ties to Hollywood culture. Michael Moore releases the controversial film Fahrenheit 9/11. The film breaks records in its opening weekend and has grossed $119 million to date.

6. Gay culture hits the mainstream, but does not prevent gay marriage backlash. Although shows featuring homosexuals like Queer Eye for the Straight Guy and Will and Grace are popular on TV, America was not ready to be so accepting in their communities. Ramifications: • Pro-gay marriage measures fail in all 11 states where they appear on the ballot. The Right rallies around this issue to turn out their voters and moral values becomes a top reason people voted for Bush in the 2004 election. Democrats are associated with Hollywood culture. Shows such as Will and Grace and Queer Eye for the Straight Guy achieve high ratings with straight audiences.

7. Celebrities tied and untied the knot. 2004 marked the year of celebrity marriages and divorces. From Brad Pitt and Jennifer Aniston’s break up to Britney Spears’ 55 hour Las Vegas marriage - you could not miss these stories on the news. Ramifications: • Proponents of gay marriage used these to question the sanctity of traditional marriage. • Republicans used these to further stay on the moral values message. • Democrats are kept on the defensive on faith and family values.

8. Fake news becomes the real deal. Ramifications: • Millions of younger viewers are turning to this show for their political information which takes shots at politicians across the board, but is highly critical of Bush and considered left-leaning. • Politicians are turning to the Daily Show to move younger voters while avoiding Meet the Press. John Stewart’s the Daily Show greatly increases its ratings and popularity for its coverage of the 2004 Election. The popularity of the well-written show makes Stewart an overnight political analyst and a top selling author.

9. Sex in the City says goodbye. Sex in the City portrayed unmarried women as strong and independent. Ramifications: • Unmarried women become a formidable voting bloc and a key Democratic persuasion target. The surge in youth turnout is young women • Jenna Bush uses an awkward Sex in the City analogy about her grandmother during the GOP Convention and she is not heard from for the rest of the campaign. The popular HBO show depicting the lives of relatively affluent single women in New York ended its six year run in 2004.

10. Hip Hop makes its move into politics. Rap artists were visible during the 2004 elections, especially in turning out younger African Americans. Ramifications: • African American turnout increases and youth turnout increases, however it is not enough for John Kerry and other Democrats. • Young voters, both male and female, are the age group that vote more for Democrats. Sean “P Diddy” Combs makes his presence known with this Vote or Die campaign during the 2004 elections.

11. Ronald Reagan’s death reminds voters about stem cell research, but it also reinforces the image of strong foreign policy that helps Bush. Ramifications: • Stem cell research gains momentum in the 2004 election with both Nancy and Ronald Reagan Jr. calling for increased funding for research. • Ronald Reagan Jr. speaks at the Democratic Convention on this issue, but does not mention Bush specifically. • Bush, although weak on stem cell research, is unaffected in the election as stem cell research is a bottom tier concern for voters. • The remembrances of Reagan help reinforce unity of the Republican side. On June 5th, the 40th President of the United States passed away from Alzheimer’s Disease.

12. Young Voters in the 2004 Election

13. Youth turnout was up • Among 18-29 year olds, turnout was up as much as 9.7 points 52%. • Among 18-24 year olds, turnout was up as much as 10.8 points to 48%. • Approximately 21 million votes were cast by 18-29 year olds, and 10.5 million were cast by 18-24 year olds, both up sharply from 2000. • Greatest turnout since 1992. • The top value for youth as well as all voters is opportunity.

14. Youth turnout was up: Living in a battleground state had a greater impact in 2004 Source: 2004 Pew Charitable Trust CIRCLE Post Election study

15. The increase in youth turnout was driven by young women . Source: 2004 Pew Charitable Trust CIRCLE Post Election study

16. Voters aged 18-24 supported Kerry 56% to 43% Source: 2004 Pew Charitable Trust CIRCLE Post Election study

17. Reaching Young Voters

18. The Re-Engaged GenerationGen X vs. Gen Y They have different opinions than their older brothers and sisters. In comparing 18–29 year olds to 30–39 year olds, under 30s were: • More likely to identify as liberal by 12 points; • Less likely to call themselves conservative by 7 points; • Favor gay marriage by 16 points; • More likely to believe that “government should do more to solve problems” by 5 points. Source: 2004 Pew Charitable Trust CIRCLE Post Election study

19. Young people believe that government should help them but are often cynical about politics. Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements. Please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views, even if neither is exactly right. Which statement comes closer to your own view?…Do you feel STRONGLY about that, or not so strongly? Politics is a way for the less powerful to compete on equal footing with the powerful. Politics is a way for the powerful to keep power for themselves. The government cannot really do much to make sure young people have access to good paying jobs or affordable education, housing and health care. The government can be a force to help young people get greater access to good paying jobs or affordable education, housing and health care. The government should do more to help people solve their problems. The government does too many things that are better left to individuals and business. Note: Latinos (-19) and African Americans (-11) are particularly likely to think that the government is for the powerful while whites (+6) are more likely to think politics helps the less powerful compete. Source: August 2004 Rappaport study

20. Why young voters don’t vote: • Young voters do not feel empowered to make a difference in the larger scheme of things, or to change government. They believe that government can and should make a difference in people’s lives, but they doubt that it will. • Their lack of faith in government is two-fold. First, they doubt their own power to change government. Second, they distrust elected officials and are cynical about politics. • Young voters are not anti-government. In our focus groups we found that many question the government’s priorities but not the government’s power to make a positive difference in people’s lives. • They believe the government has the power to make a difference, but they doubt that those in charge are committed to change. • We need to communicate to young voters that they have the power and the numbers to change things. Source: August 2004 Rappaport study

21. Youth Voter Attention • Catch the attention of previously unengaged youth with people they respect for other reasons. • While young people respond to popular culture, the election was serious to them. They are interested in information and having serious discussion. • Get them interested with comedy/celebrity, but they respond to facts. In the end, it is the message, not the messenger that is important. • Use friends & family – influentials – to reach out to young people. Source: August 2004 Rappaport study

22. Youth Vote Not A Monolithic Group • 20% are college graduates • 58% don’t expect to complete a 4-year degree • 31% are married • 57% are renters, 18% are homeowners • 21% live with their parents Source: July 2004 survey of 1,000 18-29 year olds in 17 Battleground states.

23. Spokespeople can catch young people’s attention, but are less persuasive than messages. • Celebrities can bring excitement and attention to the cause of registration, participating, and supporting particular candidates. However, when it comes to messaging and persuading these young voters it is more often people who look like them, talk like them, and are experiencing the same reality as them who break through the clutter and focus the issue. • This is especially true among young white and Latino voters. While they look to entertainers to guide trends they respond less positively when athletes, musicians, or other personalities tell them to vote a certain way. • The exception, however, is among young African-American voters. For young African Americans, Hip Hop is an avenue that validates and credentials politics and civic engagement. There are few things this cohort holds in higher esteem than the culture – 88% of younger weak African American voters find hip hop credible on politics, including 48% who find it very credible+. Hip hop not only brings excitement and attention to the cause, it also brings validation and may be a requisite for messaging among young African American voters. Source: ACT African-American Battleground survey conducted by Brilliant Corners Research, March 2004

24. Gens X & Y on Celebrity SpokespeopleModerate weight is given tocelebrities making them aware of global poverty How important would you say [celebrity appeals] are in making you aware of the issue of global poverty? ? N= 311, +/- 5.6% margin of error. CA, IL, KS, MA, VA.Source: December 2004 LSPA study

25. Celebrities Gens X & Y Admire % admire a lot or somewhat among 18-34 year olds • Denzel Washington 59% • Oprah Winfrey 52% • Jimmy Carter 48% • Julia Roberts 46% • Tom Hanks 43% • Brad Pitt 34% • Bono 25% .Source: November 2004 LSPA study 1,140 adults nationwide; 268 aged 18-34

26. Admired celebrities with a local connection and respected hip hop icons got voters’ attention in 2004. • In 2003, Philadelphia Mayor John F. Street was engaged in a tightly contested rematch with local businessman Sam Katz.  During the final days of the race, television icon and prominent Philadelphian Bill Cosby offered his voice and personal message to impress upon the community the importance of reelecting Mayor Street, because of the improvements he had made to the community during his term. In what was supposed to be a very close election, Mayor Street pulled ahead for good in the closing days of the campaign. • As part of ACT's minority registration and primary GOTV efforts in Missouri, Hip-Hop icon Doug E. Fresh offered his voice and personal message for our automated phone program to stress the importance of voting in support of local Missouri candidates including Claire McCaskill.

27. Young Voters And Technology

28. How to Reach Young People? • Use their technology • Cable television, radio, Internet, text messaging, instant messaging • Go to them • Integrate paid media with Internet • Newspapers and mail don’t work • Be factual

29. Young people get most of their news from television which is also their most trusted source. Percent who say they get most of their news and information from this source: Percent who say they trust this source for news and information: Source: August 2004 Rappaport study

30. Television Television is still the number one medium to reach young people, but the audience is more fragmented and not watching the same stations or shows as an older audience. • Broadcast • No longer dominant with rise in cable and the Internet. • Broadcast news and local news are no longer chief source of political information. Cable news is now number 1. • Cable • 37% of adults 18 to 29 regularly watch cable news • Comedy programming is important news source. • The Daily Show, Conan O’Brien, Saturday Night Live

31. Go to Them Young people respond to different mediums and different channels than older generations—all at different times. • They’re watching MTV, Comedy Central, Fox, WB, BET and Cartoon Network. • And they’re watching much later. • Top cable stations for young people start prime time two hours later and rerun prime-time starting at midnight.

32. Young people, especially African Americans and those with a low propensity to vote, listen to the radio late as well as early. Source: August 2004 Rappaport study

33. Radio Young people listen to the radio and they listen a lot. • The best way to reach young people on the radio: • Alternative Rock/Modern Rock, Hip-Hop/Rap are most popular. • Top 40 and Classic Rock also do well. • Hip-Hop/Rap reach all young listeners, no matter their race or gender. • The best time to reach young people is: • Like all listeners, young people listen during morning drive. • They also listen late—between 8 pm and 11 pm, which is much cheaper. Source: Mediamark Research Inc.

34. What about Print? • Young people are not reading newspapers. • In the last four years, daily newspapers lost nine percentage points. • And very few are reading their mail. • If they even take the time to check their mail, it’s quickly discarded as junk. • They depend on the Internet to communicate with family and to pay bills. Source: Pew Research, January 2004

35. The Internet • The fastest growing news source for young people • One in five young adults rely on the Internet for news and politics • Think about your audience • Liberal college kids frequent blogs • Non-college educated kids should not be targeted using a blog

36. Compare, Decide, Vote Ad

37. Much more Somewhat more TOTAL MORE Sponsoring an online chat room where you can go to ask questions of candidates or organization staff 19 41 60 Sending email on issues that are important to you 17 38 54 Having a weblog geared toward people like you with messages about issues that interest you 12 37 50 Sponsoring campaign events in your area organized by Meetup.org 15 32 47 Sending weekly emails with news about endorsement or other campaign updates. 9 33 42 Sending emails urging you to turn out to vote on Election Day 11 30 41 Sponsoring an Internet banner ad on a website you visit frequently 7 29 36 Sending weekly text message campaign updates to your cell phone or other handheld device 3 19 23 Sponsoring an online chat room where people can go to ask questions is the most popular way a candidate can communicate with young people

38. Dem. Indep. Rep. Sponsoring an online chat room where you can go to ask questions of candidates or organization staff +40 +10 +30 Sending email on issues that are important to you +25 0 +25 Having a weblog geared toward people like you with messages about issues that interest you +25 -7 +10 Sponsoring campaign events in your area organized by Meetup.org +20 2 +10 Sending weekly emails with news about endorsement or other campaign updates. +5 -20 -10 Sending emails urging you to turn out to vote on Election Day +4 -15 -10 Sponsoring an Internet banner ad on a website you visit frequently -8 -22 -19 Sending weekly text message campaign updates to your cell phone or other handheld device -47 -54 -45 Independents are the least likely to take internet actions. Net – Likely minus unlikely to take the action.

39. Over half of these young people use an instant messenger service at least weekly and 4 in 10 send text messages at least weekly. Less than half of this group does not have access to these messaging devices. 37 percent of African Americans and 37 percent of Latinos instant message. 49% 52% 46% 48% 50% 40 percent of African Americans and 35 percent of Latinos text message. 39% 38% 41% 38% 36% *Only 32 percent of all young people would download voter registration forms, including only 19 percent of low propensity voters who say they would do so. Source: August 2004 Rappaport study

40. Text Messaging • 1 billion text messages are sent each month in the U.S. • Must allow the user to opt in to receiving messages. • Encourage the receiver of the message to send it on to friends.

41. Taking Lessons From The 2004 Election Into 2005

42. Health Care • Lesson Learned: Health care got pushed out by the war in Iraq and terrorism, even among health care voters. Health care voters are open to opposition arguments. • Action to Take: Own the issue, make a more explicit link between health care and economy, and counter tort reform arguments. • Messaging to Use: Talk about health care in terms of values and personal stories. Don’t be wonkish.

43. Immigration • Lesson Learned: Voters believe the system is broken and needs to be fixed. They are ready to support new approaches including limited legalization as long as certain conditions are met and the system becomes more fair and orderly. • Action to Take: Promote bipartisan reforms that make our immigration system more fair, legal and orderly. Budget fights make this more zero-sum. • Messaging to Use: It is important to describe proposed reforms in terms of fair and reasonable rules that apply to everyone. Voters want both immigrants and U.S.-born citizens to be treated fairly.Highlight positive images of immigrantsas “hardworking taxpayers”

44. Minimum Wage • Lesson Learned: The minimum wage helps mobilize African American voters, particularly younger African American men, low income voters, unmarried women, and Hispanic voters. Minimum wage initiatives can be a critical tool for mobilizing turnout in 2006. • Action to Take: Put minimum wage initiatives on the ballot. The minimum wage initiatives won in Nevada with 71% and in Florida with 68%. In both states, a majority of Republicans voted to raise the minimum wage. • Messaging to Use: That it's the best way to fight poverty among full-time working Americans; and an effective way to keep people working and off of welfare. Juxtaposing salaries of CEO's with the minimal wages that their workers earn can be very powerful.

45. Wal-Mart • Lesson Learned: They are not invincible. Overcoming consumer affinity for their convenience and low prices will be difficult. • Action to Take: Get the facts out to consumers about Wal-Mart's harmful business practices and unfair treatment of employees. Even a modest reduction in shopping trips can cut into their profits. • Messaging to Use: Personal stories of workers, show that there is a better way, talk about issue in terms of values and fair play. Remind people of the huge profits they make.

46. Questions to Answer

47. Strategic Questions • What kind of communications infrastructure is needed to keep the new voters of 2004 engaged and active on issues and future elections?  • Can popular culture (TV scripts, movies, music, video games) be used more strategically to engage people or frame the public debate?  • How do we avoid/overcome backlash on events like Kerry's Hollywood comedy fundraiser?

48. Strategic Questions • Voters adopt the party of their first three votes. How do we keep youth engaged & progressive?  • How does the current issue debate on subjects like Social Security hurt appeals to youth, making them feel their issues are being ignored? 

49. Research Gaps and Future Actions

50. Youth Views • Research gap: Youth perspectives on key issues like immigration, health care, minimum wage and fighting the Wal-Mart economy. • How we use that information: Develop effective messages, and use them to mobilize young people.