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Input output and Scottish industrial clusters. Hervey Gibson. Using IO to identify Scottish industrial clusters. Based upon: Project undertaken for Scottish Enterprise in 1997/8 Paper on IO in UK cluster identification to IIOA in September 2002 (and BCITUK 1998)
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Input output and Scottish industrial clusters Hervey Gibson
Using IO to identify Scottish industrial clusters Based upon: • Project undertaken for Scottish Enterprise in 1997/8 • Paper on IO in UK cluster identification to IIOA in September 2002 (and BCITUK 1998) • Brief round up of some cluster IO methods • Application of a reducing dendritic algorithm to SCOTIO 2002
Clusters are … geographic concentrations of industrial and related organisations whose linkages enhance each other’s performance • paraphrases Michael Porter • Competitive Advantage of Nations, 1990 • three components • geography • performance • linkages
Cluster identification for nations • Porter based on trade highspots : • 3-4 digit level of SITC: • comparative advantage as revealed by shares of world trade • comparative advantage as revealed by trade balance • Issues • ‘not a statistic’ (means different things in large vs small countries) • available for physical trade (goods) only • However • meant Scotland (1992) was the first sub-sovereign economy to receive full Porter analysis thanks to availability of SCDI export statistics
Subnational – eg BCITUK • General practice based on employment highspots • Serious flaws • especially if labour market contains lags (as all do) • and if elasticities inappropriate • if performance ~ productivity then employment is the DENOMINATOR • addresses within-nation dominance, not international compettiveness
Linkage methods • linkages that in ‘cluster theory’ promote performance include a wide range of social, knowledge and informational linkages between people and institutions. • include • mysteries of trade that Alfred Marshall said children learn unconscously from the air, • relationships within and between families and the chronologies of business evolution that Beccatini traced amongst italian artisans, • ‘trust’ that the social anthropologists of clusters look for today • linkages that appear in the market place and are therefore easily susceptible to economic measurement are those of trade, of transactions between one business and another. • these are summarised, for current-account transactions of industry groups , in an input-output table.
IO tables • UK since 1954 • 5 yearly • annual early 1970s • killed by Rayner, back to sporadic • reinstated as annual SUTS from 1992 after GDP debacle • Scotland • 1973 SCDI/FAI/IBM UK • 1973 (R), 1979, 1989 • 1994 and (almost) annually
Cogentsi for Scottish Enterprise, 1998Identified cluster core through highpoints based on global value added
Dominant link method Largest cell in row and in column After 17 above have been eliminated
UK’s twenty industries with relatively strongest links 101 Insurance and pension funds 109 Legal activities 18 Alcoholic beverages 100 Banking and finance 34 Printing and publishing 81 Furniture 111 Consultancy and market research 102 Auxiliary financial services 103 Owning and dealing in real estate 59 Metal forging, pressing, etc 107 Computing services 114 Other business services 113 Advertising 110 Accountancy services 44 Soap and toilet preparations 14 Bread, biscuits, etc 112 Design and architectural etc activities 16 Confectionery 48 Plastic products 28 Wearing apparel Compare linkages with world IO tables • Individually link-by link • Forward linkages • Backward linkages • Hirschman method
Reducing dendritic algorithm • What is the most distinctive link in the table? • Those industries are in the same cluster. Unite them • What is now the most distinctive link? • continue, reducing the table dimension by 1 until after 127 steps there is only one cluster left
After 114 combinations it stops making sense • Remaining clusters: • Banking • Assets (property and education) • Materials – plastics and metal • Personal needs – food and leisure • Aero and telecomms • ‘Public’ services • Social Work and Refuse Collection never cluster
Thank you A written paper will follow hervey.gibson@cogentsi.com