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Novel Load Forecasting Technique for Electric Power System

This thesis explores a novel load forecasting technique for three time horizons in the electric power system, addressing data uncertainty and reliability upgrade challenges. It aims to improve system efficiency and planning for future demands.

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Novel Load Forecasting Technique for Electric Power System

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  1. Novel load forecasting technique for three time-horizons in electric power system Swasti R. Khuntia

  2. Thesis Factsheet • Title of thesis: Novel load forecasting technique for three time-horizons in electric power system • Name of student: Swasti R. Khuntia • Start Date / End Date: 10/04/2014 – 09/04/2018 (Expected) • Departments involved: Electrical Sustainable Energy (formal) and Applied Probability (informal) • Supervisor(s): Dr. –Ing. Jose L. Rueda • Promotor(s): Prof. Mart A. M. M. van der Meijden • Companies and funding agencies involved: EU FP7 Project comprising of 20 partners (8 industries and 12 universities) • Associated Project Title: GARPUR (Generally Accepted Reliability Principle with Uncertainty modelling and through probabilistic Risk assessment) [www.garpur-project.eu]

  3. Thesis content • Motivation • European power system reliability management surviving on ‘N-1’ criterion • Time to upgrade the reliability criterion • Demand-side uncertainty • Intermittent energy sources • Part of the project involved, it aims at socio-economic benefits • Research question • “Designing, developing, assessing, and evaluating new reliability criteria” • My contribution: Load forecast model for three time-horizons using novel data mining technique

  4. Thesis content • Leader: T5.2 and T6.2 • Contributor: • T2.3, T2.4 • T4.2, T4.3 • T5.1, T5.3, T5.4 • T6.3, T6.4 • T7.2, T7.3 • T9.1

  5. Thesis challenge • Difficulty in modeling for three time-horizons • Data uncertainty • Upgrading the existing reliability criterion • Driving factor: Project implementation in pan-European level in next decade

  6. Methodology • Literature study on “Understanding the three time-horizons” in electrical transmission system • Literature study on “Asset management in electrical transmission system” • Literature study on “Existing methodology used in participating TSOs” [continuing] • Power flow study on Bayesian Network • One of the most efficient probabilistic graphical models to represent uncertainty and inferences thereof • Nothing much done in load forecast area for three time-horizons • Trying to assess the usability and planning to design a “hybrid” model

  7. Project Plan Literature Test-case study WP5, 6 Implementation/Validation Writing Thesis 2016 04/2014 2015 2017 04/2018

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