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LOAD FORECASTING

LOAD FORECASTING. T SRINIVAS MANAGER SRLDC. MAIN COMPONENTS OF THE GRID. GENERATION. DETAILS. LOAD. TRANSMISSION NETWORK. PERFORMANCE INDICES. SYSTEM FREQUENCY. SYSTEM VOLTAGE. HEALTH OF TRANSMISSION NETWORK. SYSTEM RESERVES & REDUNDANCY. CAPABILITY TO OVERCOME A CONTINGENCY.

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LOAD FORECASTING

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  1. LOAD FORECASTING T SRINIVAS MANAGER SRLDC

  2. MAIN COMPONENTS OF THE GRID • GENERATION DETAILS • LOAD • TRANSMISSION NETWORK

  3. PERFORMANCE INDICES • SYSTEM FREQUENCY • SYSTEM VOLTAGE • HEALTH OF TRANSMISSION NETWORK • SYSTEM RESERVES & REDUNDANCY • CAPABILITY TO OVERCOME A CONTINGENCY

  4. MAIN FUNCTIONS OF A GRID CONTROL ROOM • Load Generation Balance • Merit Order Operation • Inter-regional/Intra-regional Exchanges • Maintenance of Grid Security • System Restoration/Revival

  5. LOAD GENERATION BALANCE

  6. TYPICAL LOAD CURVE OF SR SUMMER EVENING PEAK WINTER MONSOON CONSUMPTION WEATHER

  7. LOAD DIVERSITY The unique load curve of different identities due to varied nature of load / requirements results in the overall load diversity.

  8. Why Load forecasting? Load forecasting helps an electric utility to make important decisions including decisions on purchasing and generating electric power, load switching, and infrastructure development. Load forecasts are extremely important for energy suppliers, ISOs, .nancial institutions, and other participants in electric energy generation, transmission, distribution, and markets.

  9. Load forecasting Categories • Short Term Load Forecasting from one hour to one week • Medium term Load Forecasting from a week to a year • Long term Load Forecasting longer than a year

  10. DEMAND ESTIMATION Central Govt. CEA REB State Govt. SLDC CERC SEB/STU SERC CTU G1 G2 RLDC Intra State System ISTS ISGS Load IEGC to Operate on the periphery X= L - G G L1 L2

  11. DEMAND ESTIMATION Availability = Own Generation (+) Entitlement from Grid (+) Bilaterals

  12. DEMAND ESTIMATION IEGC Chapter –6 Para 6.3 Sub-Para 6.3.3 Each State / SLDC shall develop methodologies / mechanisms for estimation (MW, MVAR and MWH) for operational purposes. The data for estimation shall also include Load Shedding, Power Cuts etc. SLDCs shall also maintain Historical Database for Demand Estimation.

  13. DEMAND ESTIMATION Load Restriction = Demand (Requirement) (Load shedding) (-)Availability

  14. ENTITLEMENTS = Fixed Shares + Unallocated Shares

  15. FIXED SHARES Allocation to States from the Central Sector Stations in terms of Percentages which generally remain fixed. UNALLOCATED SHARES Allocation to States from Central Sector Stations in terms of Percentages which are changed on seasonal basis and / or under typical conditions as decided by Govt. of India.

  16. LOAD DESPATCHING AGRICULTURE SUPPLY TIMINGS : PUNJAB GROUP – A NIGHT (2000 - 0600 Hrs) 10 Hrs Avg. DAY (2100 - 0500 Hrs) 16 Hrs Avg. (0800 - 1600 Hrs) GROUP – B NIGHT (2000 - 0600 Hrs) 10 Hrs Avg. DAY (2100 - 0500 Hrs) 16 Hrs Avg. (0800 - 1600 Hrs) GROUP – C (BORDER AREAS) (0800 - 1800 Hrs) 10 Hrs Avg. STATE AVG. 12.40 Hrs Groups are Rotated on Weekly Basis

  17. AGRICULTURE SUPPLY TIMINGS : RAJASTHAN Barring the period, 1800 – 2200 Hrs, Supply is given in any seven hour stretch as decided by the respective zone. The segregation / Load Staggering is done at zonal level and monitored closely. State Avg. 7 Hrs.

  18. AGRICULTURE SUPPLY TIMINGS : HARAYANA AMBALA, KARNAL, KURUKSHETRA, SONEPAT, YAMUNANAGAR, JIND & SIRSA : GROUP – I (2200 - 0500 Hrs) 9 Hrs Avg. (0800 - 0900 Hrs) (1600 - 1730 Hrs) GROUP – II (0900 - 1600 Hrs) 7 Hrs Avg.

  19. AGRICULTURE SUPPLY TIMINGS : HARAYANA SINGLE CROP AREAS COMPRISING BHIWANI, NARNAUL, GURGAON, ROHTAK & FARIDABAD CIRCLE : GROUP – I (2200 - 0600 Hrs) 10 Hrs Avg. (0800 - 0900 Hrs) (1630 - 1730 Hrs) GROUP – II (0800 - 1600 Hrs) 8 Hrs Avg. State Avg. 8.5 Hrs. Groups are rotated on weekly basis

  20. CONTROL AREAS CS - 2 CS - 1 CS - 3 SEB-A SEB-B SEB-C STATE SLDC SEB's GRID COORDINATES/ DIRECTS DISTR - A DISTR - C DISTR - B RLDC REGIONAL GRID COORDINATES/ STATE GENR. CENTRAL IPP SHARE

  21. AGENCIES PARTICIPATING IN THE SCHEDULING PROCESS OF NORTHERN REGION NHPC Bairasiul Salal Tanakpur Chamera-1 Chamera-2 Uri NPC NAPS RAPS – 3 RAPS - 4 NTPC Singrauli Rihand Unchahar Dadri (Th) Dadri (GF) Dadri (LF) Anta (GF) Anta (LF) Auraiya (GF) Auraiya (LF) Others NJPC

  22. AGENCIES PARTICIPATING IN THE SCHEDULING PROCESS OF NORTHERN REGION STATES Punjab Haryana Rajasthan Delhi Uttar Pradesh Uttaranchal Himachal Pradesh Jammu Kashmir U.T. Chandigarh OTHERS Eastern Region Western Region Railways NFF BBMB Bhakra Dehar Pong

  23. AGENCIES PARTICIPATING IN THE SCHEDULING PROCESS OF NORTHERN REGION Generating Stations = 23 States = 9 Others = 4 (+)

  24. SCHEDULING AND DESPATCH PROCEDURE ·ALL ISGS STATIONS WITH CAPACITIES AND ALLOCATED SHARES TO BE LISTED OUT ·BY 1000 HRS EACH ISGS ADVISES RLDC OF ITS EX-POWER PLANT MW AND MWH CAPABILITIES ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT DAY i.e. 00:00 TO 24:00 HRS ·BY 1100 HRS BENEFICIARIES ADVISED OF ABOVE INFORMATION ALONG WITH THEIR ENTITLEMENTS ·BY 1500 HRS SLDCs ADVISE RLDC THEIR DRAWAL SCHEDULE FOR EACH OF THE ISGS IN WHICH THEY HAVE SHARE ·BY 1700 HRS RLDC CONVEYS THE 'EX-POWER PLANT DESPATCH SCHEDULE (IN MW)' TO EACH ISGS AND 'NET DRAWAL SCHEDULE (IN MW)' TO EACH BENEFICIARY (AFTER DEDUCTING TRANSMISSION LOSSES) ·RLDC TO ENSURE SCHEDULES ARE OPERATIONALLY REASONABLE WITH RESPECT TO RAMPING UP/RAMPING DOWN RATES AND THE MINIMUM TO MAXIMUM RATIO OF GENERATION.

  25. SCHEDULING AND DESPATCH PROCEDURE (Contd.) ·ISGS/SLDCs TO INFORM ANY MODIFICATIONS IN FORESEEN CAPABILITY/STATION WISE DRAWAL SCHEDULE TO RLDC BY 2200 HRS. RLDC TO ISSUE FINAL SCHEDULE IN SUCH CASES BY 2300 HRS. ·REVISIONS IN SCHEDULE PERMITTED DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. SUCH REVISIONS EFFECTIVE ONE HOUR AFTER THE FIRST ADVISE IS RECEIVED BY THE RLDC. ·RLDC TO CHECK FOR TRANSMISSION CONSTRAINTS, IF ANY, BEFORE FINALISING THE DRAWAL/DESPATCH SCHEDULE. ·ON COMPLETION OF THE OPERATING DAY, SCHEDULE, AS FINALLY IMPLEMENTED DURING THE DAY SHALL BE ISSUED BY RLDC. THIS WOULD BE THE DATUM FOR COMMERCIAL ACCOUNTING. ·RLDC TO PROPERLY DOCUMENT ALL THE ABOVE INFORMATION EXCHANGED BETWEEN ISGS AND RLDC, CONSTITUENTS AND RLDC ETC. ·ALL RECORDS IN RESPECT OF ABOVE OPEN TO ALL CONSTITUENTS FOR ANY CHECKING/VERIFICATION FOR A PERIOD OF 20 DAYS.

  26. Time Schedule of interaction between ISGS, SLDCs and NRLDC for Scheduling Time Interaction Purpose A. Day ahead Scheduling: By 1000 hrs ISGS to NRLDC Availability forecast, time-wise for next day By 1100 hrs NRLDC to SLDCs Anticipated ISGS wise entitlement for the next day By 1500 hrs SLDCs to NRLDC ISGS wise requisition, demand, bilateral arrangements etc. anticipated for the next day By 1700 hrs NRLDC to ISGS/ SLDCs Final generation schedule to ISGS & net drawal schedule to SLDCs for the next day By 2200 hrs Any ISGS/ SLDC to NRLDC Changes in availability/ requisition, if any for the next day By 2300 hrs NRLDC to all ISGS/ SLDCs Revised final generation schedule to ISGS & net drawal schedule to SLDCs respectively for the next day B. Running day Scheduling: Any time “a” Any ISGS/ SLDC to NRLDC Changes in availability / requisition, if any for rest of the day Within next one and half hour of “a” NRLDC to all ISGS/ SLDCs Revised generation schedule to ISGS & net drawal schedule to SLDCs respectively for rest of the day ISGS: Inter State Generating Stations SLDC: State Load Despatch Centre

  27. MERIT ORDER OPERATION

  28. Components of inter-utility tariff(Pre – ABT Mechanism) • Fixed charges • Interest on loans • Depreciation • O & M charges • Return on equity • Interest on Working Capital • Energy charges (fuel cost) • Incentives • Surcharge & other levies • No charge for reactive energy

  29. TENTATIVE COST FOR NTPC THERMAL STATIONS FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE 2002

  30. Payment to Inter State Generating Stations (ISGS) from beneficiaries under Availability Based Tariff (ABT) • Capacity charges • Energy charges • Unscheduled Interchange (UI)

  31. Energy Charges (paise/kwh) for Central Sector stations (June 2002 level)

  32. UI PRICE AND FREQUENCY 448 49 HZ 420 392 364 336 49.5 HZ CORRESPONDS TO RS.2.80 308 49.5 HZ 280 252 224 PAISE/UNIT 196 168 50 HZ 140 112 84 56 28 50.5 HZ 0 51 50 49 50.9 50.8 50.7 50.6 50.5 50.4 50.3 50.2 50.1 49.9 49.8 49.7 49.6 49.5 49.4 49.3 49.2 49.1 48.9 48.8 48.7 48.6 48.5 FREQUENCY FREQUENCY vs UI PRICE

  33. Singrauli & Rihand Dadri (T) 2700 800 Declared Capability Injection schedule Declared Capability Injection Schedule 2555 711 750 717 2530 2600 2505 2491 700 2500 640 619 Average MW Average MW 650 2400 600 2300 550 2200 500 Pre ABT(Dec 01-Nov 02) Post ABT(Dec 02-Nov 03) Post ABT(Dec 02-Nov 03) Pre ABT(Dec 01-Nov 02) Unchahar-1 & 2 Anta, Auraiya & Dadri 750 1800 Declared Capabilty Injection Schedule Declared Capability Injection Schedule 691 1636 687 1700 700 653 1600 1478 650 1500 Average MW Average MW 599 1336 1330 1400 600 1300 550 1200 1100 500 Pre ABT(Dec 01-Nov 02) Post ABT(Dec 02-Nov 03) Post ABT(Dec 02-Nov 03) Pre ABT(Dec 01-Nov 02)

  34. INTER REGIONAL EXCHANGES

  35. Inter Regional HVDC Links HCDC Vindhyachal B-B HCDC Sasaram B-B HCDC Chandrapur B-B HCDC Gazuaka B-B HCDC Talcher Kolar

  36. 450 450 450 440 450 10 MW GRIDCO to HVPNL 0000 to 1700 & 2300 to 2400 hrs-NVVNL 100 MW DVC to HVPNL 0000 to 1700 & 2300 to 2400 hrs-PTC 50 MW GRIDCO to DTL-NVVNL 100 50 MW DVC to DTL- PTC 140 MW WBSEB to DTL 0000 to 2400-PTC 100 MW WBSEB to J&K 0000 to 2400hrs- PTC 100 MW ISGS Allocations 0000 to 2400 hrs

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