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BACKGROUND FOR THE 2011 HURRICANE SEASON

This article discusses the development of a realistic disaster scenario for communities facing severe windstorms, including inventory, vulnerability, prevention/mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery, and reconstruction. It also explores risk assessment, policy options, and the factors that enhance the destructiveness of windstorms.

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BACKGROUND FOR THE 2011 HURRICANE SEASON

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  1. BACKGROUND FOR THE 2011 HURRICANE SEASON JUNE 1 -- DECEMBER 31, 2011 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

  2. SEVERE WINDSTORMS: HURRICANES • In the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Eastern Pacific areas cyclonic tropical storms with well-formed central “eyes” and with wind speeds above 74 mph are referred to as HURRICANES.

  3. THE NAMES FOR 2011’S HURRICANES THE NAMES WILL BE THE SAME AS IN 2005, EXCEPT 5 (E.G, DENNIS, KATRINA, RITA, STAN, and WILMA) THAT WERE RETIRED

  4. NAMES:ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2011 • ARIENE • BRET • CINDY • EMILY • FRANKLIN • GERT

  5. NAMES: ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2011 • HARVEY • IRENE • JOSE • KATIA • LEE • MARIA

  6. NAMES: ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2011 • NATE • OPHELIA • PHILIPPE • RINA • SEAN • TAMMY • VINCE • WHITNEY

  7. DEVELOPING A REALISTIC DISASTER SCENARIO FOR A COMMUNITY FACING SEVERE WINDSTORMS

  8. Storm Hazards: • Wind pressure • Surge • Rain • Flood • Waves • Salt water • Missiles • Tornadoes • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • PREVENTION/MITIGATION • PREPAREDNESS • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY and • RECONSTRUCTION • EDUCATIONAL SURGES RISK ASSESSMENT POLICY OPTIONS ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTION Wind profile DATA BASES AND INFORMATION Gradient Wind Ocean COMMUNITY

  9. RISK ASSESSMENT • VULNERABILITY • EXPOSURE • EVENT • COST • BENEFIT SEVERE WIND-STORMS EXPECTED LOSS POLICY ADOPTION • CONSEQUENCES POLICY ASSESSMENT A POLICY FRAMEWORK

  10. THE KEYS: 1) KNOW YOUR REGION’S METEOROLOGICAL HISTORY,2) KNOW YOUR COMMUNITY

  11. 1325 HURRICANE PATHS: 1851-2004 • EACH HURRICANE HAS PREDICTABLE PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT CAN BE USED TO DEVELOP DISASTER SCENARIOS WITHIN A REALISTIC POLICY FRAMEWORK.

  12. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS • Very low pressure in the “eye” (increases the height of storm surge and likelihood that wind will lift roofs off buildings and pop out windows after landfall)

  13. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS • Low vertical wind shear along the path of the storm (maintains storm’s cohesiveness and rotation)

  14. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS • A long path passing through warm water and a slow rate of travel (increases the likelihood that the storm will grow in strength and become a RAINMAKER after landfall)

  15. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS • Wind field and rain bands extending 500 km or more from the “eye” (increases area of potential wind damage, flooding, landslides, and need for evacuation).

  16. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS • Landfall in rain-saturated areas having steep slopes (increases likelihood of landslides (e.g., mudflows))

  17. FACTORS THAT ENHANCE DESTRUCTIVENESS • Landfall in populated areas that are unprepared: • increases the likelihood of inadequate warning, inadequate evacuation, inadequate wind engineering (e.g., roof systems, “safe rooms”), inadequate safe havens, and inadequate INSURANCE.

  18. An element’s vulnerability (fragility) is the result of a community’s actions or nature’s actions that change the destructiveness of the storm

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