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Estimating , reporting and accounting Natural Disturbances S ome numerical examples

Estimating , reporting and accounting Natural Disturbances S ome numerical examples. Zoltan Somogyi National Agricultural Research and Innovation Centre Forest Research Institute Budapest, Hungary. JRC Workshop , Arona , 6 May 2014. 1. How to fill in ?. kt. 2. BL = ? Margin = ?.

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Estimating , reporting and accounting Natural Disturbances S ome numerical examples

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  1. Estimating, reporting and accounting Natural DisturbancesSomenumericalexamples ZoltanSomogyi National Agricultural Research and Innovation Centre Forest Research Institute Budapest, Hungary JRC Workshop, Arona, 6 May 2014

  2. 1. Howtofillin? kt 2. BL = ? Margin= ?

  3. STEP 1 Define (in 2015 ) the types of NDs

  4. STEP 2a - 1developingtotalannualemissionsexcludingsalvagelogging: Wildfires TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (ktCO2) c c

  5. STEP 2a - 2supposewehave a time series for the calibration period for each ND type TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

  6. STEP 2a - 2(includingraretypes) TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

  7. STEP 2a - 2(includingraretypes)(eventhosewithoccasionaldata) TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

  8. STEP 2a - 2byfillingingapsifpossible/needed… TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

  9. STEP 2a - 2… create consistent and initially complete time series TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

  10. STEP 2a - 3sum upallannualemissions of thetime series TOTAL ANNUAL EMISSIONS (MtCO2)

  11. STEP 2btotal area and area-specific emissions (FM) = = totalannualemissions / totalarea

  12. STEP 3-aarea-specificblfor FM: iterationby „default” method

  13. STEP 3-aarea-specificblfor FM: iterationby „default” method bl =

  14. STEP 3-afrequencydistribution of emissionsfor FM

  15. STEP 3-afrequencydistribution of emissionsfor FM bl

  16. STEP 3-aemissionsfor FM byrank

  17. STEP 3-aemissionsfor FM byrank bl

  18. STEP 3-bblfor FM: „alternative” methods • bl = 0 • bl = minimum historicalemission • bl = a valuethatwasdevelopedbyusingalternativemethods of excludingoutliers(can be uptoapproximatelytheblbythedefaultmethod)

  19. STEP 3 Projected meanareaforthe CP: FM

  20. STEP 3 calculateBLfrombl and projected meanareaforthe CP: FMdefaultmethod

  21. STEP 3-b blfor AR ifthere is no datafor ND emissionsfrom AR assume, and explain, correlationbetween ND emisisonsfor FM and AR (e.g. basedon species ratio and site conditions; e.g. emissionsfromwildfireson AR arehalf of thoseon FM) developarea-specifictime-series of emissionsfor AR calculatebland STD for AR; e.g. bl= 0.12 tCO2eqha-1

  22. STEP 3 Projected meanareaforthe CP: AR

  23. STEP 3 calculateBLfrombl and projected meanareaforthe CP: ARdefaultmethod

  24. STEP 4 Developthemargin (M) – defaultmethod, FM m= 2*STDM= m* projected AREA = = (2*0.14 tCO2eqha-1) * 43.82 Mha = 12.27 MtCO2eq

  25. STEP 4 Developthemargin (M) m=2*STD bl

  26. STEP 5ensure there is no expectation of credits/debits: • assumetotalannualemissionsforthe CP thatareequaltothose of thecalibrationperiod • calculatetotaldebits and credits • checkifthecalculated net credit = 0, inwhichcaseBLand MareOK • transparentlycheckthatBL is includedinFMRL

  27. whenindoubt, refertothe 2013KPSL Photo: IpolyerdőZrt.

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