Estimating, reporting and accounting Natural Disturbances

1. Estimating, reporting and accountingNatural Disturbances ZoltanSomogyi National Agricultural Research and Innovation Centre Forest Research Institute Budapest, Hungary JRC Workshop, Arona, 6 May 2014

4. Natural disturbances (2/CMP.7, Annex para 1a) „non-anthropogenic events or non- anthropogenic circumstances … that cause significant emissions in forests and are beyond the control of, and not materially influenced by, a Party” …

5. 2/CMP.7 Annex, paras 33-36: • A Party may exclude from the accounting emissions from natural disturbances • provided that a number of conditions are met

6. Issues to answer • Why exclude? • Under what conditions? • How to exclude? • How to develop the background level and margin? (+ examples)

7. Why exclude? NIR EU, 2013: „the inter-annual variability in removals is significantlyaffected by: - forest fires (e.g. Portugal in 1990, 2003 and 2005; Italy in 2007) … Spain reports areas burnt ranging between 20 – 250 kha annually; - windstorms (e.g. France in 1999 and 2010, and Denmark in 2000, Sweden in 2005)” No one knows future

8. The Dendroctonusponderosae story

9. The Dendroctonusponderosae story 2007 Kurz et al. 2008, Nature; Kurz et al. 2008, 2009 10 2006 2005 8 2004 6 Infectedareain BC (Canada, millionha) 4 2003 2 2002 1999 2001 1930 2000 0

10. The Dendroctonusponderosae story Kurz et al. 2008, Nature; Kurz et al. 2008, 2009

11. The Dendroctonus ponderosae story carbon balance (MtC / yr) ~ total annual emissions of Hungary Kurz et al. 2008, Nature

12. Emissions may be excluded(provided that certain conditions are met): • either annually or at the end of the second commitment period • separately for AR and FM • in any single year • when total emissions from all events, including legacy emissions, exceed a background level plus a margin

14. To exclude emissions,report in NIR of 2015: • intention to apply the provision to FM, AR or both • country-specific information on • a FM background level (BL) of emissions that have been included in FMRL • an AR BL • how BL has been estimated (separately for FM and AR) • how to avoid the expectation of net credits or net debits during the CP, including through the use of a margin, where a margin is needed (separately for FM and AR)

15. To exclude emissions, demonstrate: • all affectedlands are identified, including their georeferenced location • by year and types of disturbances • how annual emissions and the subsequent removals are estimated • emissions associated with salvage logging were not excludedfrom accounting

16. To exclude emissions, demonstrate: • no land-use change has occurred on lands for which the provisions are applied • methods and criteria for identifying any future land-use changes during the CP • occurrences were beyond the control of, and not materially influenced by, the Party in the CP • practicable efforts to prevent, manage or control the NDsthat led to the application of the provisions • efforts taken to rehabilitate land where practicable

20. Exclusion of removals on affected land • assess and report them, • regardless of whether forest is re-established by rehabilitation or from the natural re-growth • ensure that the removals are not captured by another assessment system • check/correct consistency with FMRL • exclude from accounting removals that are additional to those included in the FMRL

21. Information on efforts taken to rehabilitate the land • area rehabilitated • area not rehabilitated, and why (e.g. duetolava) • timeframe of rehabilitation • efforts taken or planned • expected results (e.g., species, growth, C balance)

23. How to identify&report on land • apply Reporting Method 1 or 2 • identify the type of ND • identify the year in which the ND occurred • check if „normal” forest inventory density provides sufficiently accurate information

24. If „normal” forest inventory density is not enough: „to make the estimated uncertainty comparable with the uncertainty in the overall estimation of Articles 3.3 and 3.4 forest-related emissions”: • intensify sampling • identify the necessary temporal and spatial resolutions, and assess the need for compl-ementary ancillary and/or ground truth data

26. How to estimate emissions & removals • use IPCC 2006 • use a Tier/method that is consistent with, and/or complementary to, the method and Tier level applied to each of the pools • use Tier 2/3 especially if FM or AR (=L-FL) are a key category

27. How to estimate emissions & removals • all pools (including DOM, but excluding HWP) must be estimated (except if they can be demonstrated not to be a source) • separately estimate emissions due to salvage logging in the year when they occur • these shouldinclude emissions from wood removed from the area, dead wood discarded and damage to soil, and non-CO2 emissions

28. How to estimate emissions & removals • estimate and report areas and emissions in the year when ND occurs • continue monitoring and reporting emissions and removals in subsequent years stratification, activity data, emissions/removal factors and other parameters must reflect the spatial and temporal dynamics • estimate legacy emissions in the year when they occur

29. How to estimate emissions & removals • show that emissions accounted for under the ND provision are unambiguously attributable to NDs and do not contain or double count emissions from regular management activities, including salvage logging • if land use change occurs, report all emissions under D • consistency with FMRL and BL is key

30. Jocke Berglund, 2005

31. Rules of exclusion: of allannual ND emissions …

32. BL Es („backgroundgroup”) areexcludeddueto FMRL Es abovethe BL may be excluded inyearswith Es aboveBL + Margin („outliers”)

33. To estimate BLs and Ms(separately for FM and AR):STEP 1 • define in 2015 • the types of NDs • that the Party wishes to exclude from accounting (can include sub-divisions and rare events)

34. STEP 2aEstablish a consistent and initially complete time series for the calibration period (= period with historical data) for each disturbance type, and their sum kt

35. STEP 2a • fill in gaps in time series (do not use interpolation) • if no direct time series is available, proxies and other methods may be used (e.g., AR time series from FM time series) • exclude emissions from salvage logging from the time series

36. Becausetheareacanchangeforboth FM …

37. … and AR…

38. STEP 2b… report: • total annual emissions • total annual area by category • area specific annual emissions

39. STEP 2b FM/AR, t

40. STEP 3Develop the BL • separately for FM and AR • select and apply default or alternativemethod • if necessary: • use area-specific values to developarea-specific backgroundlevel = bl • multiply bl by the actual area under FM/AR during the time period accounted for (year or the average area during the commitment period)

41. STEP 3 Projected meanareaforthe CP: FM

42. STEP 3 Projected meanareaforthe CP: AR

43. STEP 3-aiterative process of the default method(using area-specific data) • calculatemean for all years with data in the background group • calculate standard deviation (STD) • exclude emissions > mean + 2*STD • repeat 1-3 until there are no more outliers • bl = lastly calculated mean • BL = bl * projected area

44. STEP 4 Margin: defaultmethod Margin = 2*lastly calculated STD(practically ensures zero credit/debit)

45. STEP 3-b BL: alternativemethod frequency emissions

46. STEP 3-b forBLto be appropriate … frequency BL emissions

47. STEP 3-b .. the sum of allemissionsbelowBL … frequency BL emissions

48. STEP 3-b … must equaltothe sum of allemissions betweenBL and BL+Margin frequency BL Margin outlieremissions emissions

49. STEP 3-b BLcan be smallerthanthe „average”, the minimumhistorical (projected) emission, or0 … frequency BL Margin outlieremissions emissions

50. STEP 4 Margin,alternativemethod: must be setaccordingly, 0or0(respectively) frequency BL Margin outlieremissions emissions