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The Indian Economy & Energy: The Perspective

Saumitra Chaudhuri Member, Planning Commission & Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister. The Indian Economy & Energy: The Perspective. Canada India Business Council Ontario Trade & Investment Centre Toronto, Canada Tuesday, 18 Sept 2012. The Changes in Global & Domestic Economy.

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The Indian Economy & Energy: The Perspective

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  1. Saumitra Chaudhuri Member, Planning Commission & Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister The Indian Economy & Energy: The Perspective Canada India Business Council Ontario Trade & Investment Centre Toronto, Canada Tuesday, 18 Sept 2012

  2. The Changes in Global & Domestic Economy

  3. Milestones – Share in World GDP • Till the industrial era, India & China had made up the bulk of global economic activity. Following Angus Maddison, the shares of world GDP were: • In 1600 and 1700 • India 22–25% & China 23–29% • Europe + European settlements 26–30% • This changed dramatically thereafter • In 1913 and 1950 • India 8% and 5% China 9% and 5% • Europe + European settlements 68% and 65%

  4. Shifts in Polarity after 2000 • In 2000, the share of developing economies in world GDP was 20% and that of developed nations was 80% • In 2011 this changed to 36% (=16 ppt.) and 64% - a dramatic alteration, especially so since in this period developed countries had done well • Between 2000 & 2011, the share of developing Asia went from 7 to 16% (=9 ppt.) • China improved its share of world GDP by 6.8 ppt. and India by 1 ppt.

  5. The Graphic

  6. Projections to 2030 • Projections are liable to error . . But probability that this trajectory would be realized in this time frame is high • Potentially by 2025 to 2030, the developing world’s share can go to >50% (from 36%) and developing Asia’s share can go to >30% (from 16%) • This would then be the biggest change in world economic polarity in the last 300 years • It is conceivable that there may be selective setbacks but with the exception of catastrophe, it is hard to see an entirely different trajectory. A graphic for a slightly positive outlook is in the next slide

  7. A Median Projection

  8. The Crisis, the Rebound, the Slowing and the Expected Recovery

  9. Variability & Shifts in GDP growth GDP growth an outcome of many factors. Lot of variability but this has reduced inrecent years

  10. Savings rate moves into new levels

  11. Fixed Investment Picture

  12. Quarterly GDP Growth Rates Wild case of snakes and ladders

  13. Quarterly Investment Rates Fixed asset creation soggy, invest-ment in gold up

  14. Economy & Energy

  15. Energy and Income Growth • There is a very close correlation in the increase in commercial energy consumption and the increase in levels of income • While it is true that while one can be more or less efficient in the use of energy . . but • To be able to generate higher levels of income, it is imperative that energy consumption and therefore availability also increase

  16. Energy Consumption & Incomes 1

  17. Energy Consumption & Incomes 2

  18. Primary Energy Composition 2000 Total 271 mtoe

  19. Primary Energy Composition 2010 Total 476 mtoe

  20. Source of Oil • Total imports of crude oil in 2010/11 and 2011/12 was 164 and 170 mt respectively. • The share of the Middle East (Asia) was 106 mt and 125 mt respectively • Africa, including North Africa was 36 mt in 2010/11, while Latin America was 16 mt in 2010/11 but lower in 2011/12.

  21. E&P and associated activities • 235 Exploration blocks - NELP awarded • Development of small & marginal oil fields, • 26 CBM blocks awarded under CBM bidding • Shale gas & underground coal gas ongoing • LNG capacity expansions at Kochi, Dahej, Ratnagiri & Hazira • 5 mt strategic oil storages under construction • Two coal blocks for Coal to Liquid project

  22. LNG facilities

  23. EXISTING & FUTURE NATURAL GAS PIPELINES-INDIA JAMMU NANGAL Amristar Ludhiana PARWANOO BHATINDA SRI GANGANAGAR DELHI KASHIPUR DADRI HISSAR JHAJJAR AONLA CHAINSA IPI PIPELINE CONNETIVITY NEEMRANA AURAIYA JAISALMER JAIPUR AGRA BHUTAN JAGDISHPUR DHOLPUR AJMER GUWAHATI JODHPUR BETIAH Assam & Tripura MALANPUR VARANASI IMPHAL PHULPUR KOTA BONGAIGOAN PATNA BARAUNI ANTA MEHSANA GAYA BANGLADESH KANDLA AIZAWL VIJAIPUR KHERA BOKARO AHM’D DURGAPUR RANCHI BHOPAL DEWAS JAMNAGAR GANDHAR PITAMPUR ROURKELA JHABUA HALDIA DAHEJ RAIPUR JAMSHEDPUR BARODA NORTH / SOUTH GUJARAT NETWORK HAZIRA NAGPUR ANGUL KALINGANAGAR CUTTACK PARADIP MUMBAI AHMEDNAGAR RAMAGUNDAM PUNE VIZAG DABHOL HYDERABAD Existing Pipelines KOLHAPUR KAKINADA Proposed Pipelines GADAG VIJAYAWADA GOA KG Basin Network BANGALORE CHENNAI MANGALORE COIMBATORE Cauvery Basin Network KANJIRKKOD KOCHI TUTICORIN KAYAMKULAM

  24. Thank you

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