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IN-DELTA STORAGE PROGRAM STAKEHOLDERS COMMITTEE MEETING

IN-DELTA STORAGE PROGRAM STAKEHOLDERS COMMITTEE MEETING. URS Corporation January 22, 2003. Risk Analysis. Based on the following equation: Risk = (P load )(P response )(consequences) Quantifies the risks of an embankment/ levee How could failure occur? How likely is it?

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IN-DELTA STORAGE PROGRAM STAKEHOLDERS COMMITTEE MEETING

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  1. IN-DELTA STORAGE PROGRAMSTAKEHOLDERS COMMITTEE MEETING URS Corporation January 22, 2003

  2. Risk Analysis • Based on the following equation: Risk = (Pload)(Presponse)(consequences) • Quantifies the risks of an embankment/ levee • How could failure occur? • How likely is it? • What would happen if it did?

  3. Failure Modes • Static Loads • Seepage/piping, slope stability, foundation stability, operational problems • Floods • Overtopping, increased chance of static failure • Earthquakes • Foundation liquefaction, deformation, cracking, increased chance of static failure

  4. Estimate Consequences • Potential loss of life • Based primarily on affected downstream population, available warning time, and estimated severity of the flood wave • Economic • Includes downstream damages from failure, loss of infrastructure, lost project benefits, embankment replacement costs, etc.

  5. Probabilities of Breach Scenarios • Loading event • Flooding • Seismic • Operational • Load level • Return period

  6. Probabilities of Breach Scenarios (cont’d) • Operational scenario • Reservoir level • Tide level • Breach scenario • Inward • Outward • Probability of breach scenario • Product of above events and scenarios

  7. Consequences & Probabilities of Breaching • Consequences of Breach (cost) • Inward Breach • Outward Breach • Probability of flooding of neighboring islands due to outward breach • Consequences of flooding of neighboring islands • Risk analysis will be used to recommend reservoir embankment design

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