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2020 Employment Forecasts by Industry and Occupation

2020 Employment Forecasts by Industry and Occupation. Stephen R. Barnes Associate Director LSU Division of Economic Development. Summary. Louisiana projected to grow 13.6% from baseline employment in 2010 to 2020 2010-2020 National projected growth is 14.3%

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2020 Employment Forecasts by Industry and Occupation

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  1. 2020 Employment Forecasts by Industry and Occupation Stephen R. Barnes Associate Director LSU Division of Economic Development

  2. Summary • Louisiana projected to grow 13.6% from baseline employment in 2010 to 2020 • 2010-2020 National projected growth is 14.3% • 2008-2018 employment growth is 9.1% for Louisiana vs. 10.1% for the nation • 2020 LA employment reaches 2,257,273 • LA employment fell about 2.5% from 2008 to 2010 • Current 2018 projection is 2,207,000

  3. Methodology • Baseline statistical model using the MicroMatrix software and historical data (846 regional industry forecasts) • Review statistical industry forecasts • Economic causes of trends—developed alternate models for all 846 regional industry forecasts • Contact Louisiana driver firms and incorporate their comments—help from Louisiana Health Works Commission, LCA, LMOGA, GBRIA/SLCUC/GNO Business Roundtable, ABC, Inc. • Incorporate economic development projects and major announcements • Move from industries to occupation using staffing patterns and replacement rates • Review occupational forecasts (3,710 regional occupation forecasts)

  4. Baseline Statistical Models • Baseline employment data affected by long period of unusual events • Historic declines due to 2005 hurricanes • Recession decreased employment by 2.5% from 2008 to 2010 • Preliminary projections implied no employment growth from 2010 to 2020

  5. Louisiana Employment

  6. Employment Trends and the Recession

  7. New Orleans Population Growing

  8. Major Economic and Policy Factors • Rebound from the recession • Population growth • Low price and abundance of natural gas • Oil and gas activity increasing in the Gulf of Mexico • Demographic influences and Health Reform impacting the demand for health care services

  9. LSU Forecasting Overview

  10. Revised Forecasts

  11. Region Summary

  12. Top Industries in Total Growth

  13. Top Industries in Percent Growth (with 2010 employment greater than 500)

  14. Staffing Patterns

  15. Staffing Pattern: Other heavy and civil engineering construction

  16. Growth by Occupation Group

  17. Summary • Louisiana projected to grow 13.6% from baseline employment in 2010 to 2020 • 2010-2020 National projected growth is 14.3% • 2008-2018 employment growth is 9.1% for Louisiana vs. 10.1% for the nation • 2020 LA employment reaches 2,257,273 • LA employment fell about 2.5% from 2008 to 2010 • Current 2018 projection is 2,207,000

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