CyberWar Web 2.0

1. CyberWar Web 2.0 Raghu Raman @captraman

2. Let me begin by…

3. 7 Strategic Paradigm shifts • Synergy and Technology Adoption amongst the ‘bad guys’ is ironically far more than that among the ‘good guys’. • Escalation of skillsets, resources & strategic intent • Script kiddies • Organised criminal gangs • Non-State players (supported by states) • State level resources • From mere ‘harassment’ value to Economic Espionage

4. 7 Strategic Paradigm shifts • Attacks in the future will be coordinated and synchronized – and in many cases – undetected! • eg DOS + Spreading of misinformation + natural calamity • The most sophisticated attacks are NOT those which ‘break’ the system…. • Shifting of the GTI • From the physical piece of the ground • The metric for terrorist attacks is shifting from – the damage they cause – to the attention & mindshare they draw to their ideology.

5. 7 Strategic Paradigm shifts • Earlier paradigm was “terrorist attacks supported by information campaigns.” Now it is “strategic information campaigns supported by terrorist operations.” • Hence information campaigns become the “center of gravity” and • The handheld video camera + editing software +SM platform is as important as the AK 47! • Use of the Web 2.0 to propagate terror & anarchy • In Sept 2004 terror group in Iraq behead 3 western hostages • Similar plot foiled in UK in 2007 • So as security forces start foiling large scale plots; the focus will shift from large plots that attract media to small but macabre attacks + social media

6. 7 Strategic Paradigm shifts • Use of the Web 2.0 to recruit, train & even attack • In 2008 Ayman Al Zawari ‘interacted’ with several millions of potential recruits. • Terror groups regularly create and post videos that provide training on making and detonating bombs, avoiding surveillance, encryption, forging papers, weak spots of potential targets etc. • Websites / chatrooms are being used to establish contact, indoctrinate and even coordinate attacks • Nov 2009, NidalHasan…

7. 7 Strategic Paradigm shifts • Depleting the ‘Speed of Trust’ • Studies show that multiple exposures to false information, interspersed with facts – shapes beliefs that are completely untrue! • Such opinion shaping tools will be used to spread insidious allusions about individuals, organisations, policies or even undermining the morale of an entire nation by spreading a sense of dismay and cynicism. • In the twitter era, readers seldom ascertain the veracity of the information they receive. • More importantly, the human brain is incapable of ‘remembering’ the veracity factor of the information it has received.

8. The Way Ahead • India is poised to be one of the largest users of eGovernance projects, mobile communication devices and therefore needs to train millions of users on the dangers and threats of cyberspace. • Pooling of resources and creating synergies • Government • Corporates • Stakeholders • Professional and interest groups • Realizing that strategic paradigm shifts needs strategic thinking that goes beyond mere purchase of tools and equipment. • Instead it needs a robust cyber defense strategy with systemic education and awareness that covers every stakeholder in the ecosystem

9. Thank you! captraman@yahoo.com @captraman