Politics and the Electoral System

1. Politics and the Electoral System

2. The Story of an Election • Labour Party leader Tony Blair transfers party leadership to Gordon Brown at a Labour Party conference in July 2007. • Brown becomes Prime Minister (PM) without having stood for new election as the leader of his party. • This is normal. • Party leaders are selected within the political party itself. • A party leader becomes PM because his party is the majority party in parliament. • Labour has the majority in Parliament in 2007, and Gordon Brown becomes PM. • Brown’s prime-minister-ship is formalized by the Queen

3. The Story of an Election • On April 6, 2010, Brown calls a new parliamentary election for May 6, 2010 • The campaign lasts only one month.

4. The Story of an Election • All Members of Parliament (MPs) stand for election only in their own constituencies (districts). • David Cameron (leader of the Conservative Party) stands for election only in Whitney in Oxfordshire • Gordon Brown (leader of the Labour Party) stands for election only in Kirkcaldy-Caldenbeath in Fife. • Big-name politicians—like Cameron and Brown—also campaign in colleagues’ constituencies to boost their parties’ fortunes. • Whichever party can form a majority in parliament will put forward the next prime minister. David Cameron in Whitney Gordon Brown in Kirkcaldy

5. Effect of Electoral Institutions How does the electoral system work? Single-member-district electoral system First-past-the-post (also called “winner-take-all”) 5

6. Effect of Electoral Institutions Hypothetical 34% Labour 33% Conservative 33% Liberal-Democrat Single-member/First-past-the-post  Labour wins all parliamentary seats  Parties w/ combined backing of 2/3’s of electorate win no seats at all Multi-member/Proporational Representation Would be a three-party system w/ roughly equal representation 6

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10. British Popular Vote by Party, 1945-2010

11. Look at declines in Labour (red line) popularity. Why?

12. Labour Party increasingly out of touch in 1970s & 1980s • Shift from manufacturing to services • Fewer “blue collar” jobs • Fewer union members identify with “Old Labour” • Less union membership among “white collar” workers lower • Hurt “Old Labour” 12

13. Effect of Electoral Institutions on Political Outcomes If Labour was so out-of-touch for 2 decades, why wasn’t it replaced by a third party? Not for lack of trying by 3rd Parties Social Democratic Party (1981) Liberal Democrats (since 1988) But remember “disproportionality” And Labour finally adapts to “post-industrial” society 13

14. Tony Blair “reinvents” Labour Party 14

15. Look at Labour’s (red line) comeback

16. Look at Labour’s (red line) comeback until 2010

17. The Story of an Election • Labour loses • 29% of vote down from 35% • Gordon Brown un-popular • Conservatives gain • 36% up from 32% • But lack a majority of seats (47%) • Liberal-Democrats about same (22-23%) • Join Conservatives in coalition government!

18. 2010 Election: Conservative Party improves, but fails to win out-right majority—very unusual outcome

19. Why would Lib-Dems want PR? • Liberal Democrats pushed for 2011 Referendum on Electoral Reform • Compromise • Not proportional representation (PR) • Alternate Vote (AV) also known as “instant run-off” voting

20. Lib-Dems get referendum on AV not PR! • Mr Clegg said: • "AV is a baby step in the right direction – only because nothing can be worse than the status quo. • “If we want to change British politics once and for all, we have got to have a quite simple system in which everyone's votes count.”

21. Simulated outcome of proposed “AV” voting based on 2010 survey data