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Air pollution and climate change Short lived climate forcers

Air pollution and climate change Short lived climate forcers. Øystein Hov. Is it useful to control short-lived climate forcers?. Temperature evolution for the scenarios. UNEP and WMO 2011 – Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary for Decision Makers.

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Air pollution and climate change Short lived climate forcers

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  1. Air pollution and climate change Short lived climate forcers Øystein Hov

  2. Is it useful to control short-lived climate forcers?

  3. Temperature evolution for the scenarios UNEP and WMO 2011 – Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary for Decision Makers.

  4. Methane measuressuggested to be effective

  5. Black Carbon Measuressuggested to be effective

  6. Global benefits from full implementation of identified measures in 2050/2030 compared to reference scenario UNEP and WMO 2011 – Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary for Decision Makers.

  7. Can we trust in these results? • Emission scenario uncertainty? • Impact calculation uncertainty • Black Carbon forcing range assumed 0.3-0.6 Wm-2 (being on the high side of model results) • Estimated RF effect of the CH4 & BC measures O3 0.18 / CH4 0.21 / BC 0.14 Wm-2 • Only two models used (GISS, ECHAM) and simplified temperature response function

  8. Contributions from European countries to Arctic pollution (2006)‏ Primary PM25 Secondary inorganic aerosols: SO4, NO3, NH4 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

  9. BC north of the Polar Circle 1991-2001 average AMAP Assessment 2006: Acidifying pollutants, Arctic haze, and acidification in the Arctic www.amap.no

  10. Impact on instantaneous forcing of 1 kt BCSource: EMEP/MSC-W, UniOslo, IIASA Instantaneous forcing over

  11. Surface temperature response to forcings by natural factors, anthropogenic GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols NorESM (→ GFCS via downscaling) Arctic global All forcings Anthropogenic GHG Natural (Solar + volcanoes) Anthropogenic Aerosols S/N the fourth decade ahead Hawkins and Sutton BAMS 2009

  12. Climate reanalysis and projections IPCC AR4 (2007) projected surface temperature changes 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999 (multi-AOGCM average projection A1B SRES scenario)

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