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Air pollution and climate change Short lived climate forcers

Explore the effectiveness of measures to reduce black carbon and methane emissions for climate improvement. Learn about emission scenarios, impact uncertainties, and global benefits of implementing identified measures by 2050/2030. Understand contributions from European countries to Arctic pollution and the impact of various pollutants on the Arctic region.

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Air pollution and climate change Short lived climate forcers

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  1. Air pollution and climate change Short lived climate forcers Øystein Hov

  2. Is it useful to control short-lived climate forcers?

  3. Temperature evolution for the scenarios UNEP and WMO 2011 – Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary for Decision Makers.

  4. Methane measuressuggested to be effective

  5. Black Carbon Measuressuggested to be effective

  6. Global benefits from full implementation of identified measures in 2050/2030 compared to reference scenario UNEP and WMO 2011 – Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary for Decision Makers.

  7. Can we trust in these results? • Emission scenario uncertainty? • Impact calculation uncertainty • Black Carbon forcing range assumed 0.3-0.6 Wm-2 (being on the high side of model results) • Estimated RF effect of the CH4 & BC measures O3 0.18 / CH4 0.21 / BC 0.14 Wm-2 • Only two models used (GISS, ECHAM) and simplified temperature response function

  8. Contributions from European countries to Arctic pollution (2006)‏ Primary PM25 Secondary inorganic aerosols: SO4, NO3, NH4 Meteorologisk Institutt met.no

  9. BC north of the Polar Circle 1991-2001 average AMAP Assessment 2006: Acidifying pollutants, Arctic haze, and acidification in the Arctic www.amap.no

  10. Impact on instantaneous forcing of 1 kt BCSource: EMEP/MSC-W, UniOslo, IIASA Instantaneous forcing over

  11. Surface temperature response to forcings by natural factors, anthropogenic GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols NorESM (→ GFCS via downscaling) Arctic global All forcings Anthropogenic GHG Natural (Solar + volcanoes) Anthropogenic Aerosols S/N the fourth decade ahead Hawkins and Sutton BAMS 2009

  12. Climate reanalysis and projections IPCC AR4 (2007) projected surface temperature changes 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999 (multi-AOGCM average projection A1B SRES scenario)

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