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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 16 March 2015. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 16 March 2015 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • Large long-term rainfall deficits continue over central and southeastern Brazil. • During the last 7 days (9-15 March 2015), , below-average precipitation was observed over portions of the southwestern Amazon Basin, northeastern and southern Brazil, most of Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and northern Argentina. Above-average precipitation was observed over Northeastern Peru, extreme southern Colombia, and portions of the eastern Amazon Basin and central Brazil • For 16-22 March 2015, above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of Colombia, the northern Amazon Basin, and central Brazil. Below-average precipitation is predicted for northern Northeast Brazil, southeastern Bolivia, Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over portions of the southwestern Amazon Basin, northeastern and southern Brazil, most of Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and northern Argentina. Above-average precipitation was observed over Northeastern Peru, extreme southern Colombia, and portions of the eastern Amazon Basin and central Brazil.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over portions of the Amazon Basin, eastern Bolivia, and portions of southern and southeastern Brazil and Uruguay. Above-average precipitation was observed over Suriname, Guiana, and northern Argentina.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over the southern Amazon Basin (>300 mm) and the Brazilian Plateau (~300 mm). • 90-day rainfall is near average over southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above average in the central equatorial Pacific and near or below average in the eastern equatorial Pacific. SSTs are near average in the equatorial Atlantic. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 7-13 Mar. 2015, anomalous cyclonic flow (center indicated by red C) was located southern Brazil and anomalous anticyclonic circulation (center indicated by red A) was located over central Chile. • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion occurred over central and southeastern Brazil and anomalous sinking motion occurred over portions of Northeast Brazil and northern Argentina. C A • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7-day period 7-13 Mar. 2015, above-average temperatures were observed over central Chile, eastern Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 16 March 2015 –Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 16 March 2015 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (16-22 March 2015), above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of Colombia, the northern Amazon Basin, and central Brazil. Below-average precipitation is predicted for northern Northeast Brazil, southeastern Bolivia, Paraguay, northeastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil. • For Days 8-14 (23-29 March 2015), below-average precipitation is indicated for most of the central and eastern Amazon Basin, central and southern Brazil, Bolivia, northern and eastern Argentina, and Uruguay. Above-average precipitation is indicated for the western Amazon Basin, and portions of northern and central Peru.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 2 March 2015 Valid for 9-15 Mar 2015 Forecast from 9 March 2015 Valid for 9-15Mar. 2015 Observed 9-15 Mar. 2015

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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