What are 21st Century Problems ?

1. What are 21st Century Problems?

2. Human activity is putting such a strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Board First, we’ll provide some context. . .

3. Certain current trends of population and habitation, • wealth and consumption, technology and work, • connectedness and diversity, and environmental change are likely to persist well into the coming century. . . . If they do persist, many human needs will not be met, life support systems will bedangerously degraded, and the numbers of hungry and poor will increase.  • U.S. National Academy of Sciences Other scientific assessments have come to the same conclusion. . .

4. Global climate change • Long-lived organic toxins in our food chains, • Pernicious extreme poverty and hunger, • Lack of access to primary education, • Gaps in gender equality, • Childhood mortality • Deadly diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria What are some of these 21st century problems?

5. 21st century problems have three fundamental properties in common Complexity Panarchy Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS

6. We’ll deal with complexity first

7. We’ll deal with complexity first Complex is not another word for complicated!

8. Complicated systems: simple systems with many parts • Interactions among parts are well-defined, • Interactions among parts are predictable, • The system is well defined and predictable. Complex is not another word for complicated !

9. Complex systems have • Changing connections among parts • Changing types of interactions • Changing intensity of interactions • Non-linear interactions • Feedback loops Complex is not another word for complicated !

10. Complex systems exhibit emergent behavior: that is behavior that can’t be predicted by studying the parts Complex is not another word for complicated !

11. Complicated problem: On a flat stretch of pavement with a 60 degree curve, what is the stopping distance of a car traveling 60 miles per hour given a particular coefficient of friction between the tires and the road? Assume the brakes fully engage 0.5 seconds after the signal to stop is given. Complex is not another word for complicated !

12. Complex problem: On a flat stretch of pavement with a 60 degree curve, what is the stopping distance of a car traveling 60 miles per hour given a particular coefficient of friction between the tires and the road? Assume the driver has consumed three beers and had a fight with his girl friend 2 hours ago. Complex is not another word for complicated !

13. 21st Century Problems Have Three Properties Complexity Panarchy Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS

14. Definition: Panarchy An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.

15. Definition: Panarchy An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels. What???

16. Unites States New York State Tompkins County Ithaca Let’s break this down. . . you are familiar with hierarchical systems

17. And another example of a hierarchical system

18. Now we have to add in the other elements that take a hierarchy and make it a true panarchy An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.

19. Now we have to add in the other elements that take a hierarchy and make it a true panarchy An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels. This is more easily explained with an example

20. Let’s build a simple panarchyto understand global CO2 emissions and climate change

21. You do or don’t turn off your computer when you leave your room • You do or don’t recycle your soda cans • You do or don’t drive from the circles to campus • You do or don’t wear certain brands of clothes • You do or don’t fly in an airplane to get home at breaks You exhibit certain behaviors that effect your personal CO2 emissions

22. Your friend However, you don’t live isolated from other people You Your barber Your sibling

23. Your friend And your behaviors influence each other You Your barber Your sibling

24. Together, these individual behaviors add up to a group behavior Person Person Person Person

25. Different groups develop different norms of behavior Group #2 Person Person Person Person Group #1 Person Person Person Person

26. Different groups develop different norms of behavior Group #2 For example, the group of students at Ithaca College behave differently from the group of professors at Ithaca College Person Person Person Person Group #1 Person Person Person Person

27. Your group interacts with other groups that have different group behaviors I.C. Students Person Person Person I.C. Professors Person Person Person Person Person Person Person Person Person Local Merchants

28. And these groups create larger groups that interact For example, the U.S., India, and Germany

29. CO2 The CO2 emissions of these groups add up to total emissions for humanity CO2 CO2

30. Which effects total global atmospheric CO2

31. Global Atmospheric CO2 effects And… Heat Content of Atmosphere

32. Global Atmospheric CO2 effects effects And… Heat Content of Atmosphere Weather

33. Global Atmospheric CO2 effects effects effects And… Heat Content of Atmosphere Weather Food Availability

34. Global Atmospheric CO2 effects effects effects effects And… Heat Content of Atmosphere Weather Food Availability Food Prices

35. And we’ve come back full circle . . . food prices effect – national, regional, state, and individual behavior

36. Definition: Panarchy • A Hierarchy can be. . . • Simple [few levels with straightforward connections ] • Complicated [lots of levels with straightforward connections] • Complex [levels interrelated by changing connections, feedback loops, etc] • and still not be a Panarchy!

37. Definition: Panarchy An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels. In a Panarchy, not only are the interactions among levels changing [leading to complexity], but the levels themselves are changingthrough time!

38. 21st Century Problems Have Three Properties Complexity Panarchy Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS

39. System components are related in such a way that the system as a whole has the ability to adjust or even fundamentally alter the connections and interactions among components, and even the components themselves, based on experience with, pressure from, or even sometimes anticipation of, external forces. Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS

40. lakes • forests • economy of U.S.A. • human body • earth’s atmosphere • street gangs • NATO Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS

41. So what do we do?

42. So what do we do? • Train 21st century problem-solvers!

43. Strong understanding of sustainability as a content area • Strong systems thinking skills • The ability to comfortably shift among disciplinary, multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary perspectives • Developing skills and willingness to communicate across, not only the traditional STEM disciplines, but also expand to include essentially all areas of human thought and endeavor Who are 21st Century Problem Solvers?

44. Developing the art of questioning • An acute awareness of values-based learning • Ability to connect result with real world consequences • Ability to devise, understand, and choose among several multi-faceted solutions Who are 21st Century Problem Solvers?

45. Your Turn

46. Explain why these are 21st century problems. Your Turn • Global climate change • Long-lived organic toxins in our food chains • Pernicious extreme poverty and hunger • Lack of access to primary education • Gaps in gender equality • Childhood mortality • Deadly diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria