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Planning for Prime Time: The Use of Life Cycle Analysis as a Decision Support Tool (continued)

Planning for Prime Time: The Use of Life Cycle Analysis as a Decision Support Tool (continued). Mark Nechodom, PhD Pacific Southwest Research Station - USDA Forest Service

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Planning for Prime Time: The Use of Life Cycle Analysis as a Decision Support Tool (continued)

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  1. Planning for Prime Time: The Use of Life Cycle Analysis as a Decision Support Tool(continued) Mark Nechodom, PhD Pacific Southwest Research Station - USDA Forest Service and… Berni Bahro, Greg Bahry, Klaus Barber, Adam Barnett, Joyce Cooper, David Ganz, Bruce Hartsough, Pat Manley, Tad Mason, Mike McCoy, Gregg Morris, Laurie Perrot, David Saah, Dennis Schuetzle, Fred Tornatore,Tom Wegge… and a bunch of other people….

  2. Select “Landscape Archetype” Select temporal scope Map vegetation Determine prescriptions (Rx) and apply treatments (Tx) Set “Representative Ignition Points” and run fire (Fx) models Run Biomass Power LCA, including collection, processing and transportation operations Habitat, Economics, Ecosystem Services & Carbon Models B2E Modeling Steps

  3. Forest Operations & Equipment Configuration • Determine blends of equipment currently used by practitioners on the B2E landscape • Calculate financial costs to implement forest remediation treatments

  4. Acres treated/products (sawlogs & biomass fuel) provided by SFA Labor rates Provided by contractors OT is 1.5 regular pay over 8 hrs/day Health coverage/paid holidays and bonuses equate to additional $3/hr Transport distances 30 mi one way, 25 mi pavement, 5 mi native surface @ 3 trips/day, 12.5 BDT/trip Crew travels 40 mi one way to job site daily Distance between project is 40 mi Equipment specifications Road maintenance Fuel and lube supplies Operations scheduling Conducted 120 days/year, May thru Oct, 5 days per week Extra seasonal equip use Chip trailers operate an additional 4 months/yr. Lowbeds are utilized an additional 2 months/yr. Capital cost of equipment Profit and risk Insurance & property taxes Equipment hours SMH is 10 hours/day Operations logistics All landings/roads in place Average skid dist. 500’ Diesel fuel delivered using crew pickups Parameters/Assumptions

  5. The LCA quantifies… • Life-cycle energy use • total energy and fossil and petroleum use • Life-cycle air emissions • Carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), nitrogen oxides (NOx), nitrous oxide (N2O), particulate matter (PM10), sulfur oxides (SOx), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) • From the production and combustion of fuels and use of oils during harvest, from the production of natural gas, diesel, oils, and grid electricity and the combustion of biomass in electricity generation, from pile and burn as a part of remediation actions, and from wildfires that occur • Remediation scenario results are compared to the no-remediation option and assume the displacement of electricity generation by either the California electricity grid or a natural gas power plant.

  6. Model Structure

  7. Select “Landscape Archetype” Select temporal scope Map vegetation Determine prescriptions (Rx) and apply treatments (Tx) Set “Representative Ignition Points” and run fire (Fx) models Run Biomass Power LCA, including collection, processing and transportation operations Habitat, Economics, Ecosystem Services & Carbon Models B2E Modeling Steps

  8. Habitat, Economics, & Carbon • Each model evaluates changes and impacts from Fx and Tx at landscape scales • Other model “domains” include wildfire emissions, ecosystem services, and metadata

  9. Wildlife Communities and Habitats What are the impacts of fuels treatments on habitat?

  10. Wildlife Community • Species list generated using CWHR data base • Generated a species list for the geographic area and the consulted geographic range maps to weed out species only occurring on the fringe of the study area • 308 vertebrate species on final list • 196 birds, 76 mammals, 17 amphibians, 19 reptiles

  11. Marten Habitat Assessment • Used existing survey data in overlapping study area to develop a predictive model that was then applied to B2E landscape • Predicted probability of occupancy • Ranges from 0 to 1 • Based on habitat conditions suitable for reproduction

  12. Economic Analysis Do the economic benefits of removing forest biomass and using it as fuel for energy production exceed the economic costs?

  13. Project revenues: Power generation Treatment saw logs Salvage saw logs Project costs: Forest fuels treatment Capital costs Operations & maintenance costs Power Plant Operation Capital costs Operations & maintenance costs Fire suppression Rehabilitation Asset Values: Agricultural land values Timber resources Decrease in asset value due to treatment Increase in asset value due to reduced fire mortality Recreation resources Structures Infrastructure (e.g., power transmission lines) Cost/Benefit Analysis

  14. Biomass Fuel Production Cost EMBARGOED DATA

  15. Carbon Model What are the effects of forest treatment operations on atmospheric greenhouse gas levels in California?

  16. Greenhouse Gas Model Structure Unit Impacts Impacts Air pollution Greenhouse Gases Landfill consumption Forest deterioration Fuel Use energy production Alternative Fates open burning spreading/composting Forest accumulation landfilling OR • Residue Types • Mills (forest products) • Forest (fuels treatments) • Agriculture • Recovered Municipal Wastes Alternative Fate Factors

  17. Forest Fuels Module Without Thinning Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CH4 Mortality & decay (standing and downed deadwood) Net Growth (logistic, target)Fire Event (periodic, source)Decay Process (exposure, source)

  18. Forest Fuels Module With Thinning Atmospheric CO2 Atmospheric CH4 Mortality (standing and downed deadwood) Biomass Energy Fuel Wood Products Treatment & Fuel Use (year)Net Growth (logistic, target)Fire Event (periodic, source)Decay Process (expo., source) Thinned Forest Forest

  19. Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service USFS R5 Stewardship and Fireshed Assessment Team UC Davis (Civil & Env. Engineering & Information Center for the Environment) U of Washington (Mechanical Engineering & College of Forest Resources) Oregon State University UC Santa Barbara - Geography National Renewable Energy Labs TCW Economics (Tom Wegge) Future Resources Associates (Gregg Morris) TSS Consultants Spatial Informatics Group B2E R&D Team: 13 Orgs & ~ 63 members Technical Advisory Committee: 18 members Policy Advisory Committee: 22 members http://Biomass2energy.ucdavis.edu

  20. “If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn’t be called Research!” - Albert Einstein

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