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sPHENIX PD-2/3 Review Cost/Schedule

sPHENIX PD-2/3 Review Cost/Schedule. Cathleen Lavelle. May 28-30, 2019 BNL. Outline. Funding, Obligations, Cost Profile Performance Measurement Baseline Cost Estimate Development, Estimate Uncertainty Risk Assessment and Contingency Analysis Schedule Development

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sPHENIX PD-2/3 Review Cost/Schedule

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  1. sPHENIX PD-2/3 ReviewCost/Schedule Cathleen Lavelle May 28-30, 2019 BNL

  2. Outline • Funding, Obligations, Cost Profile • Performance Measurement Baseline • Cost Estimate Development, Estimate Uncertainty • Risk Assessment and Contingency Analysis • Schedule Development • Performance Measurement Baseline • Performance Measurement (EVMS) and Reporting • Summary

  3. WBS 1.01 – 1.07 MIE Funding, Obligation, and Cost ProfilesAt-Year $K Burdened & Escalated • Replace w 27M • Proposed PMB – $22.015M • Contingency- • $ 4.985M • Total Project Cost • $ 27.0M

  4. Funding Profile changes from CD-1 to PD-2/3 CD-1/3A PD-2/3 Increase in Total Project Cost of $450K from CD-1 in FY 21 due primarily to increase in costs from PM and Electronics costs.

  5. sPHENIX Cost Estimate process • Cost Estimate developed by the L2 and L3 Managers consistent with GAO 12 step process. • WBS is product oriented and is comprehensive, identifying all work scope, including Contributed Labor - separately tracked. • Activity based resource loaded schedule, logically linked. • The estimate includes: • All resource hours and material and travel direct dollars required to execute the work scope. • The cost element data (labor and non-labor) needed to complete the product/deliverables with estimate uncertainty. • Documented assumptions, risk, contingency analysis and basis of estimate.

  6. Work Breakdown Structure

  7. Cost Baseline changes from CD-1/3A • Increase in Total Project Cost of $450K and • Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB)* of $1.5M due to: • Project Mgmt - committee recommended increase in PM support • TPC Electronics cost increases worldwide • TPC - selection of more capable Laser System for calibration • Cal Electronics - Electronics Cost increasing world wide • Decreases in EM Cal due to lower price powder vendor and lower factory labor costs • Decrease DAQ/Trigger due to identifying existing technical solution – saves prototyping

  8. sPHENIX Cost/Schedule Assumptions – posted on site • Cost/Schedule Assumptions document describes the assumptions for how the cost estimate, and schedule were developed. • Cost Estimate: • BNL Labor Bands were used to estimate project labor requirements. • Contributed labor is included in the estimate. • FY19 Labor, Burdened Rates are provided by Budget Office as a composite rate in P6. • Extraordinary Project Rate was approved for the MIE project. • Escalation 3.0% labor, 2% Material • Schedule: • Schedule resource loaded and planned within funding constraints and critical decision milestones. • Activities developed based on WBS Dictionary, • Durations estimated and resources assigned by L2/L3 Managers.

  9. sPHENIX Cost Estimating Basis • Cost Range at CD-0 - $29-35 M • Cost Range at CD-1 - $22-35 M • Point Estimate at PD-2 $27 M • PD-2 Cost Estimate Basis: • Estimate between Class 2-3 based on DOE Guidelines • Follow GAO Cost Estimating Guidelines (tailored) • Other Cost Estimate considerations: • Review of Risk Registry • Degree of Estimate Uncertainty

  10. sPHENIX WBS 1.0 MIE Cost Summary at WBS Level 2 • Est. to go • - $19,087K

  11. All FTEs for sPHENIX MIE – Paid/Contributed Labor Category Labor Source PD 2/3 Review

  12. Risk Assessment Methodology • Risk Management Plan finalized • Risk Registry/assessment updated monthly with assessment of mitigation strategies – L2s • Risk Ranking based on probability and confidence • Monte Carlo simulation – 90% confidence level indicating: • Cost/Schedule contingency sufficient to successfully complete project within cost and schedule requirements. See I. Sourikova Risk presentation in Mgmt Breakout

  13. Top Risks on the Project Total of 66 Risks and 1 Opportunity: 8 high, 23 moderate 35 low and one opportunity.

  14. Contingency Analysis • Cost Contingency based on risk event analysis and estimate uncertainty assessment. • Risk Registry prepared for sPHENIX with • mitigation strategies developed. • Monte Carlo analysis @ 90% confidence level (See Sourikova talk in Mgmt breakout). • Estimate Uncertainty assessed for labor and • material at resource level based on pre- • defined categories. (see tables in backup). • Cost Contingency is 26% on work to go – $19.1M. • Schedule contingency 14 months - ~ 30%

  15. Estimate Uncertainty – High confidence Basis of Estimate Codes for Labor and M&S in Assumptions Document Estimate – 2/3 Quotes/POs, LOE

  16. sPHENIX Long Lead Procurements • Four LLP requests totaling $5.9M with contingency approved at CD3A. • All 4 LLPs awarded and within cost estimate. • Scintillating tile order placed. Working on date for first delivery. Order complete March 2021 • 100k SiPMs order has been placed. First parts received Feb 2019. Order complete Mar 2020 • Scintillating fiber order placed. First parts delivered in Apr 2019, Order complete Mar 2021 • Tungsten Powder will be awarded obligations planned in FY19 and FY20 to address funding constraints.

  17. sPHENIX Project Summary Schedule Critical Path runs through: - Cal Elect. Preprod. Procure - Cal. Elec. Fab/Assy - EMCal Fab/Assy - Cal Electronics Sys. Testing - EMCal System Testing - Early Completion - Installation, Integrated Test and Commissioning

  18. MIE Milestones • MIE Early Completion October 2021. • The CD-0 Mission need statement was signed Sept 2016. • Received approval from DOE to start OPC work Feb 2017 after submittal and approval of OPC plan. • CD-1/3A – Budget Authority approved August 2018.

  19. Resource Loaded Schedule and practicing EVMS Implementation • Resource loaded schedule is basis for: • Time-phased Cost and Obligations Plan to form the • Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB) to assess project performance (Earned Value). (Tailored EVMS implementation) • Practicing Earned Value since January. CAMs Trained • Baseline Frozen – January 1 • Processed 3 PCRs changes and 2 Contract Awards using P6/Cobra and reporting in IPD (Integrated Project Database). Reference: E. Mentor talk on RLS in P6

  20. sPHENIX EVM Practice CPR (Cost Perf. Report) • Monthly Status • (2 months data) • Processed 3 PCRs • EV Reporting in Cobra • Data Reporting IPD. (Integrated Project Database)

  21. Cost/Schedule Charge Questions • Charge Q. 3: Are the cost and schedule estimates complete, adequate, and reasonable to support the performance baseline? Yes, detailed cost estimate and resource loaded schedule has been prepared with BOEs to backup the cost estimates. The cost estimating process follows the GAO 12-step process. Estimate uncertainty estimated. Estimate details/backup are credible. Schedule detailed and logically linked and achieves project objectives. • Charge Q. 4: Are the project risks properly identified and appropriate mitigation strategies in place? Do the cost and schedule estimates include adequate contingency based on a sound and reasonable risk analysis? contingency? Yes, RMP and detailed risk registry, cost contingency ~26% on cost to-go, and schedule contingency 14 months (30%) to PD-4. • Is the project ready for PD-2/PD-3? Yes, PD-2/3 Documents complete, Performance Measurement Baseline established, LLPs -all 4 awarded, resource loaded schedule established. Practicing tailored EVMS.

  22. Summary • The Project Cost Estimate and Schedule are well developed, credible and detailed for PD-2 Approval of the Baseline and PD-3 Approval of Execution. • The Cost Estimate has been developed by L2/L3 Managers using GAO 12-step process with appropriate basis of estimate documentation. • The RLS is integrated , time-phased and obligations and cost “fit” within the funding profiles. • Performance measurement Baseline (PMB) in place, with sufficient cost/schedule contingencies within approved funding profile. • RMP and Risk Registry well developed and validated with Monte Carlo @ 90%. • EVM system (tools and tailored process) are in place and have been practicing EV (status and change control) prior to PD-2. • Staff is experienced and the sPHENIX Project is ready for PD-2/3 approval.

  23. Back Up

  24. WBS 1.01 – 1.07 MIE OPC Funding and Obligation ProfilesAt-Year $K Burdened & Escalated Most OPC funds obligated and costed

  25. WBS 1.01 – 1.07 MIE TEC Funding and Obligation ProfilesAt-Year $K Burdened & Escalated TEC funds authorized for LLP obligations/cost

  26. MIE - Estimate Uncertainty

  27. Basis of Estimate Categories Basis of Estimate Codes for Labor and M&S in Assumptions Document

  28. BNL Contributed Labor – Fund/Cost

  29. BNL MIE Contributed Labor Cost by WBS

  30. BNL Contributed Labor for MIE - Estimate Uncertainty – Cat B

  31. sPHENIX - Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB)

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