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Accelerating Change: Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit John Smart, President, ASF Medicine Meets Virtual Reality 14

Accelerating Change: Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit John Smart, President, ASF Medicine Meets Virtual Reality 14 Jan 2006 ◆ Long Beach, CA Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html. Presentation Outline. 1. Introduction 2. One Assumption 3. Two Processes of Change

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Accelerating Change: Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit John Smart, President, ASF Medicine Meets Virtual Reality 14

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  1. Accelerating Change: Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit John Smart, President, ASF Medicine Meets Virtual Reality 14Jan 2006 ◆ Long Beach, CA Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html

  2. Presentation Outline 1. Introduction 2. One Assumption 3. Two Processes of Change 4. Three Foresight Studies 5. Four Foresight Skills 6. Five Foresight Domains 7. Global Trends 8. Twenty Year Scenarios 9. Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit 10. Group Discussion © 2006 Accelerating.org

  3. 1. Introduction

  4. Seeing the Extraordinary Present “There has never been a time more pregnant with possibilities.” - Gail Carr Feldman © 2006 Accelerating.org

  5. Carpe Diem "In a time of change, it is learners who inherit the future. The learned find themselves well equipped to live in a world that no longer exists." — Eric Hoffer "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you did not do than those you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. Give yourself away to the sea of life." — Mark Twain © 2006 Accelerating.org

  6. We Have Two Options:Future Shock or Future Shaping “We need a pragmatic optimism, a can-do, change-aware attitude. A balance between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on persistent problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to avoid both doomsaying and paralyzing adherence to the status quo.” ― David Brin © 2006 Accelerating.org

  7. Acceleration Studies Foundation • ASF (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of 3,100 scientists, technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators, educators, analysts, humanists, and systems theorists discussing and dissecting accelerating change. • We practice “developmentalfuture studies,” that is, we seek to discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, convergent capacities, and highly probable scenarios for our common future, and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary choices. • Specifically, these include accelerating intelligence, immunity, and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems, increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing intimacy of the human-machine, physical-digital interface. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  8. 2. One Assumption: An Accelerating, Infopomorphic Universe

  9. Systems Theory Systems Theorists Make Things Simple (sometimes too simple!) "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." — Albert Einstein © 2006 Accelerating.org

  10. From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: “The Decelerating Phase” of Universal ED © 2006 Accelerating.org

  11. From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The “Accelerating Phase” of Universal ED Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977) Each month is roughly 1 billion years. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  12. A U-Shaped Curve of Change Big Bang Singularity Developmental Singularity? 50 yrs ago: Machina silico 50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds 100,000 yrs: Matter 100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap. 1B yrs: Protogalaxies 8B yrs: Earth © 2006 Accelerating.org

  13. The MESTI Universe Matter, Energy, Space, Time  Information Increasingly Understood  Poorly Known MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency drives accelerating change. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  14. Physics of a “MESTI” Universe Physical Driver: • MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density Emergent Properties: • Information Intelligence (World Models) • Information Interdepence (Ethics) • Information Immunity (Resiliency) • Information Incompleteness (Search) An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory: Entropy = Negentropy Universal Energy Potential is Conserved. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  15. Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ): A Universal Moore’s Law Curve Ф Free Energy Rate Density Substrate (ergs/second/gram) Galaxies 0.5 Stars2(counterintuitive) Planets (Early) 75 Plants 900 Animals/Genetics 20,000(10^4) Brains (Human) 150,000(10^5) Culture (Human) 500,000(10^5) Int. Comb. Engines (10^6) Jets (10^8) Pentium Chips (10^11) time Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001 © 2006 Accelerating.org

  16. The Infopomorphic Paradigm The universe is a physical-computational system. We exist for information theoretic reasons. We’re here to create, plan, manage, and discover. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  17. Cosmic Embryogenesis(in Three Easy Steps) Geosphere/Geogenesis (Chemical Substrate) Biosphere/Biogenesis (Biological-Genetic Substrate) Noosphere/Noogenesis (Memetic-Technologic Substrate) Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1881-1955) Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist, Developmental Systems Theorist Le Phénomène Humain, 1955 © 2006 Accelerating.org

  18. De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth "No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively." “Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition” © 2006 Accelerating.org

  19. Stock on ‘Metahumanity’: The Emerging Human Machine Superorganism Biologist William Wheeler, 1937: Termites, bees, and other social animals are “superorganisms.” They increasingly can’t be understood apart from the structures their genetics compel them to construct. Developmental endpoint: an integrated cell/organism/supercolony. Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism, 1994 © 2006 Accelerating.org

  20. 3. Two Processes of Change: Evolution and Development

  21. The Left and Right Hands of “Evolutionary Development” Replication & Variation “Natural Selection” Adaptive Radiation Chaos, Contingency Pseudo-Random Search Strange Attractors Evolution Selection & Convergence “Convergent Selection” Emergence,Global Optima MEST-Compression Standard Attractors Development Complex Environmental Interaction Left Hand Right Hand New Computat’l Phase Space Opening Well-Explored Phase Space Optimization © 2006 Accelerating.org

  22. Evolution vs. Development“The Twin’s Thumbprints” Consider two identical twins: Thumbprints Brain wiring Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns. Development creates the predictable global patterns. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  23. Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development) The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  24. How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal? Evolution tried this experiment. Development calculated an operational optimum. Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, andcertain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  25. How Many Wheels are Developmentally Optimal on an Automobile? Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  26. Evolution and Development:Two Universal Systems Processes Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that both processes have explanatory value in different contexts. The deeper question is when, where, and how they interrelate. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  27. Two Political Polarities: Innovation/Discovery vs. Mgmt/Sustainability Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability Developmental sustainability without generativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive weakness (Maoism). Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism). © 2006 Accelerating.org

  28. 4. Three Foresight Studies: Futures, Development, and Acceleration

  29. Humans are Prediction Systems “Our brain is structured for constant forecasting.” Jeff Hawkins, Inventor, PalmPilot, CTO, Palm ComputingFounder, Redwood Neurosciences Institute Author, On Intelligence: How a New Understanding of the Brain will Lead to the Creation of Truly Intelligent Machines, 2004 © 2006 Accelerating.org

  30. The Prediction Wall and The Prediction Crystal Ball What does hindsight tell us about prediction? The Year 2000 was the most intensive long range prediction effort of its time, done at the height of the forecasting/ operations research/ cybernetics/ think tank (RAND) driven/ “instrumental rationality” era of Futures Studies. (Kahn & Wiener, 1967). © 2006 Accelerating.org

  31. Three Essential Foresight Studies:Futures, Development, and Acceleration • Futures Studies • “Possible” change (scenarios, alternatives) • Development Studies • “Irreversible” change (emergences, phase changes) • Acceleration Studies • “Accelerating” change (exponential growth, positive feedback, self-catalyzing, autonomous) © 2006 Accelerating.org

  32. Brief History of Futures Studies • 1902, H.G. Wells, Anticipations • 1904, Henry Adams, A Law of Acceleration • 1945, Project RAND (RAND Corp.) • 1946, Stanford Research Institute (SRI International) • 1962, Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the Future • 1967, World Future Society, Institute for the Future • 1970, Alvin Toffler, Future Shock • 1974, University of Houston, Studies of the Future M.S. • 1977, Carl Sagan, Dragons of Eden • 1986, Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation, • 1995, Tamkang U, Center for Futures Studies • 1999, Ray Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines • 2002, Acceleration Studies Foundation © 2006 Accelerating.org

  33. Four Types of Futures Studies • Exploratory (Speculative Literature, Art) • Consensus-Driven (Political, Trade Organizations) • Agenda-Driven (Institutional, Strategic Plans) • Research-Predictive(Stable Developmental Trends) • The last is the critical one for acceleration studies and development studies • It is also the only one generating falsifiable hypotheses • Accelerating and increasingly efficient, autonomous, miniaturized, and localized computation is apparently a fundamental meta-stable universal developmental trend. Or not. That is a key hypothesis we seek to address. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  34. Warning: Never Trust a Single Futurist (Including Me)Never Make Big Decisions Without Using a Futures Network Each of us sees only a piece of the elephant and is easily wrong. A multi-biased network gives you a wider and deeper map of the possibility space. This will make you more adaptive, and may make you more foresighted. Modern culture spends a lot of time in the past and present, but very little thinking about personal, organizational, and global futures. Learn to fight this increasingly costly bias. Lesson: Develop your network, map the controversies, have tolerance for ambiguity, seek good data, notice weak signals, optimize today but expect emergence. Be skeptical. Consult the crowd but make your own decisions. “You can’t get an unbiased education, so the next best thing is a multi-biased one.”  Buckminster Fuller © 2006 Accelerating.org

  35. Where are the U.S. College Courses in Foresight Development? • Tamkang University • 27,000 undergrads • Top-ranked private university in Taiwan • Like history and current affairs, futures studies (15 courses to choose from) have been a general education requirement since 1995. • Why not here? © 2006 Accelerating.org

  36. Graduate Foresight Programs:Futures Studies, STS, Roadmapping • Futures Studies (two U.S. graduate programs) • Science and Technology Studies (30+ U.S. programs) • Tech Roadmapping (five U.S. programs. First PhD under Mike Radnor at Northwestern in 1998). Artificial Life, Complexity Science, Systems Science, Simulation Learning: All still too early for foresight specializations. Tech roadmapping is a process presently being used for major capital investment in industry (e.g. ITRS, which began as NTRS only in 1992). Tech Roadmapping is the closest yet to Development and Acceleration Studies. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  37. Human Development Studies:Sequential Growth Stages Stages are probability functions, not discrete “levels” of development. They are sequential and directional, but you can regress with abnormal trauma or deterioration. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  38. Gilligan’s Stages of Female Moral Development Stages are probabilities, but they are sequential and directional. This is reasonably good research. Carol Gilligan © 2006 Accelerating.org

  39. Debser’s Stages of Cultural Development Some stage conceptions have less evidence at present, but remain good candidates for further research. Eugene Debser © 2006 Accelerating.org

  40. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Self-Needs DevelopmentSmart’s Hierarchy of Technoeconomic Development Biological Learning Stages Technological Learning Stages Self-transcendence (Religion & Death) Biotranscension Society Digital Twin IT Society Valuecosm IT Society Network IT Society Manufacturing Society Agricultural Society / Self-expression / Self-identity / Property © 2006 Accelerating.org

  41. Developmental Windows • In 2005, India is seeing a grassroots movement to get schools to teach English in first grade (vs. fourth grade). Three to six is a developmental window for effortless language acquisition. Mandarin or Hindi for your child? Zerotothree.org What will tomorrow’s for-profit daycare chains be like? © 2006 Accelerating.org

  42. Something Curious Is Going On Unexplained. (Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…) © 2006 Accelerating.org

  43. Henry Adams, 1909: The First “Singularity Theorist” The final Ethereal Phase would last only about four years, and thereafter "bring Thought to the limit of its possibilities." Wild speculation or computational reality? Still too early to tell, at present. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  44. Acceleration Studies: Our Historical Understanding of Accelerating Change In 1904, we seemed nearly ready to see intrinsicallyacceleratingprogress. Then came mechanized warfare (WW I, 1914-18, WW II,1939-45), Communist oppression (60 million deaths). 20th century political deaths of 170+ million showed the limitations of human-engineered accelerating progress models. Today the idea of accelerating progress remains in the cultural minority, even in first world populations.It is viewed with interest but also deep suspicionby a populace traumatized by technological extremes, global divides, and economic fluctuation. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Out of Control, 1993 © 2006 Accelerating.org

  45. The Technological Singularity Hypothesis Each unique physical-computational substrate appears to have its own “capability curve.” The information inherent in these substrates is apparently not made obsolete, but is instead incorporated into the developmental architecture of the next emergent system. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  46. The Developmental Spiral • Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 yrs ago • Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs • Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs • Agricultural Age 7,000 yrs • Empires Age 2,500 yrs • Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770) • Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950) • Information Age 70 yrs (1950-2020) • Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2020-2050) • Autonomy Age 10 yrs (2050-2060) • Tech Singularity ≈ 2060 © 2006 Accelerating.org

  47. Four Pre-Singularity Subcycles? • A 30-yearcycle, from 1990-2020 • 1st gen "stupid net "/early IA, weak nano, 2nd gen Robots, early Ev Comp. World security begins. • A 20-year cycle, from 2020-2040 • CUI network, Biotech, not bio-augmentation, Adaptive Robots, Peace/Justice Crusades. • A 10-year cycle, from 2040-2050 • CUI personality capture (weak uploading), Mature Self-Reconfig./Evolutionary Computing. • 2050: Era of Strong Autonomy • Progressively shorter 5-, 2-, 1-year tech cycles, each more autocatalytic, seamless, human-centric. © 2006 Accelerating.org

  48. Macrohistorical Singularity Books The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998 Singularity 2130 ±20 years Trees of Evolution, 2000 Singularity 2080 ±30 years © 2006 Accelerating.org

  49. Macrohistorical Singularity Books The Singularity is Near, 2005 Singularity 2050 ±20 years Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003 Singularity 2050 ±10 years © 2006 Accelerating.org

  50. “Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency of Science and the Microcosm: Wigner and Mead The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960 After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on symmetries and simple universalities in mathematical physics. Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics in the Microcosm,” VLSI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980. W=(1/2mv2) F=ma E=mc2 F=-(Gm1m2)/r2 In 1968, Mead predicted we would create much smaller (to 0.15 micron) multi-million chip transistors that would run far faster and more efficiently. He later generalized this observation to a number of other devices. © 2006 Accelerating.org

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