The Fertility Transition in Historical Perspective

1. The Fertility Transition in Historical Perspective Timothy W. Guinnane Professor of Economics and History Department of Economics, Yale University

2. The Fertility Transition in Historical Perspective The fertility transition is the point at which couples begin to deliberate limit the number of children women bear Most western European societies, along with Canada and the United States, experienced this important change before the beginning of the 20th century Earlier European societies had relatively late marriage for women (ages 22 and later) and many adults never married (10-15 percent). This limits population growth. Fertility transition shifts limitation of population to reductions in family size.

3. Fertility transitions in the 18th and 19th centuries By mid-19th century, sub-populations in manyEuropean countries, along with Canada and the United States, clearly limiting fertility France the first country to experience general fertility transition. Probably began before the Revolution of 1789, well underway by early 19th century Fertility transition appears to start in period 1860s-1890s in much of western Europe, including England and Wales, Germany, Belgium, and Italy.

4. Fertility transitions in the 18th and 19th centuries (cont) United States experience is mixed. Some regions see fertility decline in early 19th century. By early 20th century, native-born, urban white women have below-replacement fertility. Other sub-populations have much higher fertility, however. In general, rural regions within these countries experience fertility transition later (although not always) Once fertility transition begins, tends to be abrupt, with family size falling from 7-8 births per woman to 2-3 births per woman within two generations

5. Why? No general agreement on the causes of the fertility transition. The “right” answer may be different for different societies and sub-groups Some stress changes in the social and economic logic of large families brought about by industrialization and the expansion of market forces into agriculture o Some European industries, such as textiles, were heavy employers of women o Neoclassical economics stresses changes in the (relative) cost of children. If women have better labor-market opportunities, children are more expensive

6. Why? (cont) Some stress changes in ideas about the roles of women, and the role of religion in life. o Fertility transition tends to be later among Catholics (although not always). Papacy fought against contraception as a modern ill o Most current research stresses “secularization” rather than differences between Catholics and Protestants Massive migration from rural areas to urban areas shifted population from regions where fertility had always been higher to cities, where fertility transition had begun

7. Role of infant and child mortality Infant and child mortality also decline in the 19th century Earlier views stressed this as cause of fertility transition: if women thought fewer of their children would die, they could have fewer births We now know this is too simple. Infant and child mortality declines preceded the fertility transition in some countries, but in others they occurred simultaneously Reverse causation is partly why: infant and child mortality declines reflects improvement in public-health systems, nutrition, etc. But it also reflects better care by parents who had fewer children to care for

8. Role of contraceptive methods Much of the European fertility transition pre-dates the use of many modern contraceptive methods Contraceptive “pill” not widely available until 1960s, more than 100 years after start of European fertility transition. How did they (not) do it? Evidence is only indirect, but still solid In some societies, including France, male withdrawal (coitus interruptus) was widely used Various “rhythm” methods used, along with periodic sexual abstinence

9. Role of contraceptive methods (cont) These methods have high failure rates, but are sufficient to reduce fertility from high, pre-transition levels to the 3-4 births per woman that characterize the early fertility transition Inexpensive rubber condoms become available from 1850s, replace more expensive, less reliable condoms already available Other rubber barrier devices (diaphragm, cervical cap) also used in the late 19th century Actual availability and expense of devices depends on local law and communication networks. Many countries try to prevent dissemination of knowledge and devices

10. Research methods Most of the relevant societies developed good vital-registration systems in by the mid-19th century (U.S. is an exception; it had not). Much valuable research based on an analysis of aggregate data from these sources U.S. and some other countries did not have vital registration, but had accurate census. With indirect demographic methods these censuses can be used to study the fertility transition

11. Implications for wealthy countries today Lower fertility tends to produce (in the short run) an older population. Lower fertility exacerbates aging-related problems in medical and social-insurance systems Some European governments have tried to use policy to encourage women to have more children

12. Implications for wealthy countries today (cont) Efforts have not been successful; even with very generous subsidies for maternal leave from employment, child-care systems, etc., low fertility seems resistant to government-sponsored opposition Only successful way to have higher fertility in wealthier societies is route taken by Canada and the United States. They have much higher fertility rates today than most western European societies because they admit large numbers of immigrants from relatively high-fertility countries

13. Implications for poor countries today Some developing countries today already have relatively low fertility. Examples include most of Latin America, as well as parts of East Asia As the fertility transition takes hold, poor societies may also face the challenge of paying for an older population Some, such as China, will be especially affected, as they turned rapidly from a high-fertility to a low-fertility society

14. Implications for poor countries today(cont) Countries with high fertility today seek ways to promote smaller families. The UN and other agencies often stress the importance of family planning clinics and other efforts to promote sterilization or modern contraceptive methods The historical experience suggests these methods make reducing fertility easier. But the historical experience also suggests that the desire to have smaller families is more important than the technology of contraception This suggests more attention to the social and economic logic of high fertility. Why do women in poor countries want to have a large family, and what policies can make large families less desirable?

15. Suggested references Alter, George. 1992. "Theories of fertility decline: a nonspecialist's guide to the current debate", in John R. Gillis, Louise A. Tilly, and David Levine (eds.), The European Experience of Declining Fertility, 1850-1970. Cambridge MA: Blackwell, pp.13-27. Carlsson, Gösta. 1966. "The decline of fertility: innovation or adjustment process", Population Studies 20 (2):149-174. Coale, Ansley and Susan C. Watkins (eds.). 1986. The Decline of Fertility in Europe. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Easterlin, Richard A.. 1976. "The economics and sociology of fertility: a synthesis", in Charles Tilly (ed.), Historical Studies of Changing Fertility. Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 57-134.

16. Suggested references(cont) Guinnane, Timothy W., 2003 "Population and the economy in Germany, 1800-1990", in Sheilagh Ogilvie (ed.), Germany: An Economic and Social History, Volume III. Guinnane, Timothy W., Barbara S. Okun and James Trussell, 1994. "What do we know about the timing of the European fertility transition?" Demography 31 (1):1-20. Knodel, John and Etienne van de Walle. 1986. "Lessons from the past: policy implications of historical fertility studies", in Ansley J. Coale and Susan C. Watkins (eds.), The Decline of Fertility in Europe. Princeton: Princeton University Press, pp. 390-419. Santow, Gigi, 1995. "Coitus Interruptus and the control of natural fertility", Population Studies 49 (1):19-44.