Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin

1. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin by: Mac McKee, Director and Abedalrizq Khalil Graduate Research Assistant Utah Water Research Laboratory Utah State University

2. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Abedalrizq Khalil:

3. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Overview: • about the Sevier Basin • the Sevier River Water Users database • development of real-time management models • implementation

4. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin… • about 12.5% of the area of Utah • arid climate • flows to a terminal lake • surface water is mostly used for irrigation • managed by a single entity, the Sevier River Water Users • has been heavily instrumented • many diversion/release structures are remotely controlled via the web

5. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir

6. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir releases

7. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir outlet controls (replaced)

8. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin: automated controls for canal diversions

9. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Richfield Canal diversion structure

10. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin: canal flow monitoring

11. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin: weather station

12. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Data and Information: The Sevier River Water Users Web-based dissemination of information www.sevierriver.org

13. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Data and Information: The Sevier River Water Users Reservoir volumes…

14. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Data and Information: The Sevier River Water Users Reservoir discharges and elevations…

15. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Data and Information: The Sevier River Water Users River and canal flow conditions…

16. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Using only raw data, available on a near real-time basis, the Sevier River Water Users have: • achieved substantial improvement in system efficiency • greatly improved management during recent years of drought for many canal companies • reduced water disputes, especially upper basin versus lower basin

17. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Availability of raw data could also make analysis possible: • development and application of near real-time operations models, especially for system components with long travel times • canal diversions • reservoir releases

18. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Applications to date: • six-month ahead forecasts of monthly flows at Hatch • 24-hour forecasts of flows on Clear Creek • daily operations of Sevier Valley/Piute Canal • daily operations of Piute Reservoir • hourly operations of Piute Reservoir

19. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin…

20. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Piute Reservoir Clear Creek Monroe/South Bend Canal Sevier Valley/ Piute Canal Joseph Canal Monroe Canal Elsinore Canal Richfield Canal Brooklyn Canal Annabella Canal Vermillion Canal Vermillion “Reservoir” meet water orders, minimize spills Modeling of Piute Reservoir Releases: • hourly model • forecast, hour-by-hour, the reservoir release recommended to meet downstream canal diversions • capture and report information about uncertainty of the forecast release • learn from mistakes and improve future forecasts

21. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Modeling approaches: • “intelligent systems” approach (versus physically based) • several methods examined: • neural nets • “lazy learners” • methods from statistical learning theory: support vector machines; relevance vector machines

22. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin  The methods we are using must be able to recognize patterns in order to provide a reliable prediction of how much water to release/divert, and they should be smart enough to retrain themselves when their predictions become poor. Problems encountered: • annual hydrologic changes make pattern recognition very difficult • farmers can’t make up their minds • farmers, ditch riders, and canal operators hedge their bets • reservoir operators don’t listen to them, anyway

23. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin “Novelty” Detection State Prediction No Yes Adaptive Simulated Annealing Perform Model Selection Update decision rule (RVM) Feature Extraction Inputs

24. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Input data: • Data that reflect the physical forces that cause water demands and streamflow in tributary streams to fluctuate throughout the day and from one day to the next are utilized (13 total inputs, each hour): • hourly total solar radiation • previous-day hourly streamflow • precipitation • air temperature

25. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Normalized scale Input dimension Model Selection… The influence of the “distracted variables” is suppressed by very low estimates of their corresponding scale parameter, h.

26. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Modeling results: 2003 irrigation season (no “drift” correction)

27. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Detection of system “drift”…

28. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Modeling results: 2003 irrigation season (with “drift” correction)

29. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin P Scaled Releases (cfs) Time Uncertainty estimate and displays… impress them with lots of colors…

30. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Residuals can be used to judge model performance

31. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin What comes next: • programming the “model” as a stand-alone package--happening now • “blind” testing the package against 2004 data--happening now • implement on the Sevier River Water Users web site--Roger Hansen wants to hook the model up to the Piute Reservoir gate controllers

32. Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin or contact: Mac McKee, 435-797-3188, Mac.McKee@usu.edu ???questions??? Visit us at: http://www.engineering.usu.edu/uwrl/