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Real-Time Forecasting of Extreme Heat Conditions Based on Initial Criteria

This model provides real-time predictions for extreme heat events based on specific temperature criteria. It differentiates between Hot Days, Heat Waves, and Severe Heat Waves. Utilizing hindcasts and bias-corrected data, probabilities of occurrence for each heat condition are calculated. The model also offers temperature anomaly correlations, occurrence probabilities, and histograms for temperature data across India.

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Real-Time Forecasting of Extreme Heat Conditions Based on Initial Criteria

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  1. Prediction of Extreme Heat Real-time forecast based on 20th June2016 initial condition

  2. Criteria for Heat Wave For Observation Gridded data A) IF MAXTmp more than 39°C and MINTmp more than 90th Percentile of the observed MINTmp for that day B) IF MAXTmp more than 95th Percentile of the observed MAXTmp for that day and MAXTmp more than 39°C and MAXTmp departure is more than 3.5°C Or MAXTmp more than 44°C C) IF MAXTmp more than 99th Percentile of the observed MAXTmp for that day and MAXTmp more than 39°C and MAXTmp departure is more than 5.5°C Or MAXTmp more than 46°C Hot Days (HOT): Satisfying A and B Heat Wave(HW): Satisfying B Severe Heat Wave(SHW): Satisfying C Therefore SHW⊂HW⊂HOT, i.e. HOT conditions are inclusive of HW, and HW includes SHW. This is different from the IMD manual. For Model data: Hot Days probability: % of ensemble members satisfying A and B Heat Wave probability: % of ensemble members satisfying B Severe Heat Wave probability: % of ensemble members satisfying C Model hindcasts are available since 2001 till 2010. They have been bias corrected with respect to observed climatology for the same period. Daily observed percentiles for Tmax and Tmin have been calculated for the period 1981-2010 and have been used to calculate extreme heat conditions on the model forecasted bias corrected data.

  3. Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)

  4. Tmax Anomaly correlation coefficient for P1, P2 and P3 lead Pentad wise (P1-P3) probability of Occurrence for Extreme Heat

  5. Probability of Occurrence for Extreme Heat

  6. Chance for Heat Wave along with Maximum Temperature (Actual & Anomaly)

  7. Temperature Histogram for 4-homogeneous regions of India

  8. Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature (by MME)

  9. Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature Anomaly (by MME)

  10. Daily evolution of Soil Moisture (top 10cm) Anomaly (by MME)

  11. Daily evolution of GH and wind Anomaly at 500mb (by MME)

  12. Thanks…..

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