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Domestic Energy Demand: Projections to 2030

Domestic Energy Demand: Projections to 2030. Diana Dixon. Current situation: Domestic energy consumption end use. Space heating is the largest energy use Space heating has been reducing over the last few years Appliances have increased since the 70’s.

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Domestic Energy Demand: Projections to 2030

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  1. Domestic Energy Demand:Projections to 2030 Diana Dixon

  2. Current situation:Domestic energy consumption end use • Space heating is the largest energy use • Space heating has been reducing over the last few years • Appliances have increased since the 70’s

  3. Current situation:Domestic energy end use and fuel 2007 Source: domestic 2009, DECC Gas currently represents: 84% of space heating 79% of water heating Consumer switching cost from Gas to Electricity / renewable energy will be high

  4. Key drivers of domestic demand Outdoor temperature Population Conservation Appliances & trends Number of Households

  5. Looking forward:Population & Housing statistics • 27.8m households by 2031 (+252,000 households p.a.) • Currently 26% elderly heads of household 32% in 2031 (6 percentage points increase) • 13% people live alone now 18% will live alone in 2031 Source: http://www.communities.gov.uk

  6. Space Heating: Conservation measures • 95% of suitable households have loft insulation • 85% of housing stock has double glazing • 40% suitable properties have cavity wall insulation • Assumption: 0.5% improvement p.a. due to new housing stock & conservation measures

  7. Space Heating:Heating-degree days Source: sciencedirect.com Reduction of 300 days over 40 years = 0.29% p.a. Assume that this trend will continue

  8. Implications: More people at home during the day Lower metabolic rates Thermal comfort defined as between 20-24°Cby WHO 10% increase in space heating in 6% of households. For every 1°C of energy the requirement is 8-10°C in the UK Negligible impact on space heating ~0.93% by 2030 Space Heating:Aging population Source: Office of national statistics

  9. Lights & AppliancesAssumptions: • Number of major appliances per household is close to saturation point. • New technology / consumer electronics demand will be off-set by: • Reduced average household size • Improved energy efficiency • Low energy lightbulbs - assume a switch over of 100% by 2020 (395,524 x 20%) Water & Cooking:Assume that ratio for cooking and water will remain flat - aligned to no of households

  10. Domestic Projections to 2030 (Using the current ratios for the domestic uses)

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