Have the younger population lost interest in cars?

Have the younger population lost interest in cars? An Interim Report Alan E. Pisarski

The Question is: are younger people less oriented to private vehicles or not? It is argued that the younger population: • Is more cell-phone addicted; • Is more high density oriented; • Is less interested in mobility; • Thinks cars are for old folks; • Thinks walk, bike, transit are the new thing; Really? Lots more serious study needed!

In the midst of this research • As is typical these days in Washington people find what they want to find; Lets call it advocacy analysis • Washington is something like ground central for the idea • Washington, Arlington and Alexandria are in the top ten nationally of areas with the highest percentage of persons living alone – above 40% Joel Kotkin calls such places: Graduate Student Resorts!

In the midst of this research • The really tough dichotomy regarding this question and almost everything else today is: • how much is a product of the present pathetic economy and associated issues; and/or • how much really is a new trend? • Time will tell; but here’s some of the key considerations in separating bubble from trend

Among the key factors • Incomes • Youth & Parent Unemployment • Age and Ethnicity factors • High vehicle operating costs • Gas • Insurance • Maintenance • New State Graduated Licensing

The share of younger population is declining The boomers learn to drive

The excitement about one person households is way overstated There are 30 million persons in one person households; About 19 million of which are women only about 1.3 million are under 30 years of age

Mostly “little old ladies”

Minorities are a Major Share of our Young Population -2011 ACS At least a third of the population below the age of 35 are minorities More likely to be low income and to have unemployment in the family

OVERALL, BLACK & HISPANIC POPULATIONS HAD BIG GAINS IN AUTO OWNERSHIP THIS DECADE – SOME LOSSES SINCE RECESSION IN 2000 ALL 10.3% BLACK 23.8% HISPAN 17.2% IN 2009 ALL 8.9% BLACK 20% HISPAN 12.4% (WHT NON-H 6.4%)

More young people living at home Source: US Census TAD-1. Young Adults Living At Home: 1960 to Present

Younger people have “staff” ! NHTS analysis FHWA

A key factor affecting young – Graduated Licensing • Begun in mid nineties; often goes in 3 phases • Learner stage • Intermediate stage • Full privilege • Age limits in learner stage • Only 1 state does not control length of learner stage - 3 months minimum • 49 states & DC ban night driving in intermediate stage • Minimum age • 45 states restrict psgrs • 46 require supervised driving • Minimum age for full licensing • Driver’s Ed. has been a casualty of school budgets COINCIDES WITH IMPROVED SAFETY AND TRAVEL CHANGES

Not much change in overall licensing Young women ahead of men

Insurance costs have been rising insurance rose from $778 in 2000 to $886 in 2006 and to $1,010 in 2010 up 30% in the decade Adding a male under 25 can raise family car insurance 2x

THE BIG DRIVER: JOBS NHTS FHWA

YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Unemploy- ment in 2001 was about half of present Nov 2012 16-19 24% Blk 41.3% 20-24 14.6% Blk 25.2%

Re Unemployment PEW CENTER STUDY Feb 2010 • Pew Center – 37% of young respondents either out of work or underemployed. Highest in 3 decades of surveying. • High percentages of college grads are unemployed or under-employed in jobs that don’t require their degrees. • W. Post Nov 2012 (of AU law grads only 1/3 w jobs in field; 80% have loans av $150k)

The African-American Population Dramatic declines in workers Mixed picture on Licensing

A similar picture among Hispanics Sharp declines in workers Again mixed

White Non-Hisp. also saw declines Better situation - Pattern same More decline?

Transit shares rose among minorities – are they the ones most likely to lose car access? LIFO?

A little closer look- all ages grew Big jump in 25-30 group Less so here

Miles driven are down far more among non-workers of either sex Male non-workers down 27% Male Workers down 14% Females 14%08% ------------------------------ 25-30 age groups did a little better Male 22%/12% Female 11%/07% NHTS FHWA

VMT trend is not just weak economy or gas prices- it’s a long term demographic trend

TEST: PICK OUT THE YOUNG! THE CHOICES ARE: under 16; 16-20; 21-35; 36-65; over 65

DID ANYONE GET IT RIGHT?

Transportation is more important to the young in terms of spending Both under 25’s and 25-34 group spend more on transportation as share of total expenditures and as share of total income CEX

They are first in transportation spending

And on other good stuff

Lead in spending per vehicle

Transit is more important to young than other age groups but still minor overall All consumer units spend less than 1% of their transportation spending on transit Under 25’s spend almost 2%; they spend 3 times more on air travel than on transit

Decline in hh trips 2001-2009 If we think of trips as mandatory or discretionary then middle income hh would have most cost pressure and most discretionary travel to cut

Some concluding thoughts: • Yes they love their cell phones, texting and cafés • Yes they spend lots of time on games • Yes they love the environment • Some of them love the Graduate Student Resorts • But the economy seems to be a perfectly adequate explanation of declining use of autos recently, abetted by some of the other costs exacted on the young – and we never even mentioned college loans! (AU lawyer grads 80% have loans av 150k 1/3 w jobs in field) We need to give it time --- and to produce more un-biased data collection and analysis instead of advocacy analysis • A new study by AAA Safety Foundation will be out soon that will help

TIME WILL TELL -- Thank You ! And MANY thanks to: Adella Santos Susan Liss Nancy McGuckin Elaine Murakami who helped greatly with the data sets from the National Household Travel Survey Alan E. Pisarski alanpisarski.com

Get shares of pop hisp black 01 A third of age group is minority pop

Have the younger population lost interest in cars?