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Primary Elections

Primary Elections. How do we choose the party’s candidate?. Primary Elections. Each political party must pick ONE person to become the nominee Republicans chose among…. Rudy Guiliani. Fred Thompson. John McCain. Mitt Romney. Mike Huckabee. Who’s Winning? Latest Polls (October 2007).

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Primary Elections

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  1. Primary Elections How do we choose the party’s candidate?

  2. Primary Elections • Each political party must pick ONE person to become the nominee • Republicans chose among… Rudy Guiliani Fred Thompson John McCain Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee

  3. Who’s Winning? Latest Polls (October 2007) Registered Republicans' choice for nominee for 2008* Giuliani 27% F. Thompson 26% McCain 14% Romney 10% Gingrich 6% Huckabee 4% Tancredo 2% Brownback 1% Hunter 1% Paul 1% Registered Democrats' choice for nominee for 2008* Clinton 39% Obama 20% Edwards 15% Gore 13% Richardson 4% Kucinich 3% Biden 2% Gravel 1% Dodd **

  4. 2012 ? VERSUS

  5. Power! • Each state holds primary elections on different days over 6 months • Historically: • Iowa & New Hampshire vote 1st in January • Last state – June • Generally winner of each party is determined in first few months

  6. I wanna be first!!!! • Frontloading: moving up primary election date • Political parties set dates: Florida & Michigan moved their dates up too early & so votes were NOT counted!

  7. Do the first states hold the most power? • YES! They set the momentum / trend for the campaign, ppl w/few votes drop out • NOT ALWAYS! In 2008, D’s couldn’t decide b/w Obama & Clinton and every single primary affected the outcome – winner wasn’t determined until June

  8. Super Tuesday • Tuesday in February in which many states (approx 20) all vote on same day to have a greater impact on primary outcome • CA votes on this day 

  9. Should all 50 states hold their primary on the same day? • YES! No one state would determine winner, all states treated equally • NO! Candidates can focus on small area & connect w/local ppl, gives ppl a chance to see candidates over time / variety of situations / time to “dig up dirt”

  10. Primary Ballots • In primaries, vote for one party ONLY • Ballot only has one party on it • Democratic Presidential Candidates • Pick only one. • Chris Dodd • Joe Biden • Barack Obama • Mike Gravel • Dennis Kucinich • Hillary Clinton • Republican Presidential Candidates • Pick only one. • Sam Brownbeck • John McCain • Fred Thompson • Rudy Guiliani • Mitt Romney • Mike Huckabee OR

  11. Primary Types • Open Primary: • Vote for any party you want • Adv: • Dis: • Closed Primary • Vote only for the party you registered with • Adv • Dis

  12. Should all states use the closed primary?

  13. National Convention • Late summer • Each state sends a group, called a delegation, to their parties’ National Convention • Official nominee • Platform determined • Each delegation is now forced to vote for the person who won the primary in that state (1968) = Direct Primary

  14. Superdelegates – party members, usually elected officials who can vote according to their own opinion (D’s only!) • Many worried that the D nominee would NOT be chosen by the voters but these SUPERdelegates!

  15. Primary Power • Before 1960s, indirect primaries: votes were only a suggestion and party members would have final say • Parties have lost power w/direct primary

  16. Should we return to the indirect primary?

  17. Campaign! • After Convention, campaign for office begins (late August – Nov) • General Election: November • Determines winner

  18. Party Centered Campaigns: DEcentralized parties – power is divided at national, local & state levels • NATIONAL Committees (RNC, DNC): • Organize the elections: • GOTV (Get Out The Vote): Register ppl to vote, call, mailers, etc • Organize National Conventions • Service Relationship – parties support candidates but cannot force them to do much

  19. Cont’d • STATE Committees – • LOCAL : • Precincts: local voting district • Grassroots level

  20. Candidate Centered Campaigns Candidates determine the issues & “flow” of the election Packaging the candidate – likeability factor • Air wars: media fight ($$$) • News • Commercials: rapid response • Do negative ads help or hinder? • http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/commercials/2008 • Debates

  21. Web wars Web pages How effective? Ground wars Swing voters: independents who could choose either party Battleground states OR Swing states: states that are fairly split b/w the 2 parties

  22. Chance for a newcomer, party outsider Flexible to changing issues and events Makes local issues a priority  Personality contests $$$ plays a large role, too large? Don’t have to take blame for Washington, they are still an “outsider” Adv / Dis of Candidate Centered Campaigns

  23. Electoral College:only for the Pres/VP Elections • In 48/50 states, the winner of the popular vote receives all of the states’ electoral votes = # of ppl state send to Congress • In CA – 55 EV • 3,000,000 popular votes for R • 3,000,001 popular votes for D • Winner takes all 55 votes! • http://www.270towin.com/

  24. Election Timeline • Announce you’re running • Campaign: • Focus on the states that vote first! • Raise money! • Win the Primary Elections • National Convention • Old days: party had ultimate decision in nominee • Now: People’s votes determine the nominee • One-on-one campaign: R v. D • General Election • Picks the winner • November

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