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Task 1 Results Evaluation of Approaches to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Washington State

Task 1 Results Evaluation of Approaches to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Washington State. September 11, 2013. Task 1 Scope of Work.

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Task 1 Results Evaluation of Approaches to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Washington State

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  1. Task 1 Results Evaluation of Approaches to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Washington State September 11, 2013

  2. Task 1 Scope of Work • Analyze WA State’s total consumption and expenditures for energy by fuel category and sources of the fuels, including imports of foreign oil and other fossil fuels; and analyze the trends in price and consumption since 1990 • Evaluate the existing state level GHG emissions reduction policies that will contribute to meeting the targets • Analyze the state’s non-energy sources of GHG emissions, such as cement production and agricultural sources • Evaluate significant GHG emissions reduction initiatives undertaken by local governments in WA. • Analyze the overall effect on global GHG levels if WA achieves its targets

  3. Task 1 in Context How does Task 1 fit into the overall project? • Task 1 sets the stage for all further analyses, which include: • Task 2 – evaluate GHG emissions reduction programs outside of Washington • Task 3 – quantify contribution to State’s emissions reduction from federal policies • Task 4 – Final Report – consider results from Tasks 1-3, including policy interactions • Task 5 – provide technical support to CLEW for meetings and public hearings, make adjustments to analysis provided in Tasks 1-3, or offer new analyses as directed Next Steps? • Tasks 2 and 3 are in progress and will be presented at CLEW’s 9/27 meeting • Task 4 Report draft follows quickly thereafter, draft at the end of September

  4. How Task 1 Will Feed Into Recommendations Sets the stage • Where are we now? • What are the GHG drivers? • What are the trends? Provides context for evaluation of new policies • How much can we expect to achieve through existing policies? • Provides lessons that may inform future policies

  5. Task 1a –Washington State’s Total Consumption and Expenditures for Energy

  6. Task 1a –Washington State’s Total Consumption and Expenditures for Energy Source: WA Dept. of Commerce 2013 Biennial Energy Report Source: EIA SEDS

  7. Task 1a –Washington State’s Total Energy Consumption, 2011 Source: EIA SEDS

  8. Task 1a –Washington State’s Total Consumption and Expenditures for Energy – Analysis of GHG Emissions WA State GHG Emissions by Source, 2010. Source: WA 2010 GHG Inventory

  9. Task 1b – Evaluation of Existing Policies That Will Contribute to GHG Targets

  10. Task 1b – Evaluation of Existing Policies That Will Contribute to GHG Targets Note: Reductions for each policy are not additive because interactions are not accounted for in these values.

  11. Task 1 b - Renewable Fuels Standard • Policy defined - starting in 2008, at least: • 2% of total gasoline sold in WA must be ethanol • 2% of total diesel fuel sold in WA must be biodiesel or renewable diesel • Results presented are associated with an RFS of 5%, biodiesel only. • Key data sources • Office of Financial Management Transportation Revenue Forecast Council • Carbon intensities for fuels - A Low Carbon Fuel Standard in Washington: Informing the Decision and California ARB - LCFS • Assumptions • Feedstocks • Policy modification allows for successful implementation

  12. Task 1 b – Washington State Energy Code • Policy defined • Building energy codes must achieve a 70% reduction in annual net energy for new bldgs • Key data sources • Baseline energy use data from NEEA reports • Residential new construction forecast based on U.S. Dept. of Commerce data • Commercial new construction forecast based on Sixth Power Plan (adjusted for recession) • Assumptions • Policy only impacts buildings constructed through 2033 but reductions persist at flat rate 2034-2050 • Only savings for new construction considered • New construction rates recover from recession by about 2018 • Electricity EFs continually improve over time

  13. Task 1 b – GHG Emissions Performance Standards • Policy defined • Baseload electricity generation – the lower of 1,100 lb/MWh or average output of a Combined Cycle Combustion Turbine (CCCT) • Quantification reflects reductions associated with Centralia’s compliance with EPS • Developed in consultation with WA State Energy Office • Key data sources • Power purchase agreement through 2025 between TransAlta and PSE • Fuel Mix Disclosure data, PSE purchases, total coal power market purchases • Assumptions • Electricity generated at Centralia that is ultimately consumed in Washington includes: • power purchases from PSE and • 50% of additional market purchases • Replaced with electricity from 90% natural gas CCCT and 10% renewable resources.

  14. Task 1 b – Appliance Standards • Policy defined as efficiency standards for products not yet superseded by Federal standards • Wine chillers designed and sold for use by an individual • Hot water dispensers and mini-tank electric water heaters • Bottle-type water dispensers • Pool heaters, residential pool pumps, and portable electric spas • Commercial hot food holding cabinets • Key data sources • American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) • Appliance Standards Awareness Project (ASAP) • Personal communication with Washington State Department of Commerce staff • Assumptions • A national study (with adjustments) applies to WA

  15. Task 1 b – Energy Independence Act (I-937) • Policy defined • Large utilities to obtain 15% of their electricity from new renewables by 2020 and to undertake cost-effective energy conservation • Key data sources • Fuel Mix Disclosure data • NPCC Sixth Power Plan for historic and forecast load growth • Washington CAT 2007 policy analysis for non-fossil mix of resources for new electricity demand • U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook for Electric Power Projection for additions to future fossil fuel mix • NWPCC Conservation Target Calculator • Assumptions • 2007 represents BAU baseline consumption and fuel mix • Regional load growth data between 2007 and 2010 (total 3 year growth of 0.8%) • After 2010, forecast energy load through 2030 based on annual load growth of 1.4%, as forecasted in Power Plan • Utilities will meet RPS in 2012, 2016; however we assume that not all will in 2020, only getting to 12% by 2020 before hitting cost caps

  16. Task 1 b – Energy Efficiency and Energy Consumption Programs for Public Buildings • Policy defined • Certain state-funded “major facility projects” must meet high performance building requirements – LEED Silver • State agencies, higher ed, and public schools • Qualifying “major facility projects” of new construction and renovation • Key data sources • Baseline Energy Use Index Of The 2002-2004 Nonresidential Sector: Idaho, Montana, Oregon, And Washington • 2012 Facilities Inventory System (FIS) and System Report - data for State-owned buildings. • NPCC Sixth Power Plan – K-12 floor space forecast including floor space retirement rate • Assumptions • Newly constructed high-performance State-owned buildings are 10% more efficient, on average, than facilities built according to the minimum effective energy code requirements.

  17. Task 1 b – Conversion of Public Fleet to Clean Fuels • Policy defined • State & local governments must satisfy vehicle & vessel fuel usage with electricity or biofuel • 40% by June 1, 2013 • 100% by June 1, 2015 • Key data sources • State agency biannual diesel and biodiesel consumption data submitted to Dept. of Commerce • Assumptions • Annual diesel and gasoline consumption will remain flat, equivalent to avg. consumption in recent years’ data, with increases to be offset by efficiency gains • Diesel vehicles and WSF fleet meet but do not exceed B20 by 2020; maintain through target years • Future shares of biodiesel feedstocks developed with Department of Commerce staff • EVs are assumed to replace 60% of agency gas vehicles in 2020, 75% in 2035, and 85% in 2050 • CNG displaces 10% of gasoline consumption after 2020

  18. Task 1 b – Purchasing of Clean Cars • Policy defined • California Pavley Standards for vehicle model year 2009-2016 and California LEV III GHG emission standards for vehicle model years 2017-2025 • Key data sources • ARB assessments and reports associated with PavleyStandards and LEV III • Assumptions • 5 MMtCO2e/year achieved by Pavleyis constant for each year and therefore added to the LEV III Reductions

  19. Task 1 b –Growth Management Act • Policy defined • 1990 framework for land-use planning • It enables but does not require local government planning to encourage Compact Transit-Oriented Development • Key data sources • Washington 2008 CAT, Transportation Implementation Working Group, Appx. 4 • Assumptions • CTOD Strategy and estimate prepared by the CAT for 2020 is assumed most representative of the GMA policy • Assumed growth rate gradually decreases from 3% to 1% per year 2020- 2050

  20. Task 1c – Non-Energy Sources of GHG Emissions

  21. Task 1c – Non-Energy Sources of GHG Emissions • Industrial Processes • Category includes • Manufacturing of cement, petrochemicals, aluminum • Leakage and fugitive emissions of ODS substitutes HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 • 3.8 MMTCO2e, or 4% of total in 2010 • Waste Management • Category includes • Landfills, wastewater treatment, composting • 3.8 MMTCO2e in 2010, or 4% of total • Agriculture • Category includes • Enteric fermentation by livestock, manure management, and agricultural soils • 5.2 MMTCO2e, or 5.4% of total in 2010

  22. Task 1d – Washington State Counties’ and the City of Seattle’s GHG Reduction Initiatives

  23. Task 1d – Washington State Counties’ and the City of Seattle’s GHG Reduction Initiatives

  24. Task 1e –Overall Effect on Global GHG Levels if WA Achieves Its Targets

  25. Task 1e –Overall Effect on Global GHG Levels if WA Achieves Its Targets In perspective • 2010 GHG Emissions • The world, CO2 from energy: 31,502 MMTCO2 • U.S. CO2 from energy: 5637 MMTCO2 • WA, total CO2e all sources: 96.1 MMTCO2e • WA, CO2e from energy: 82.6 MMTCO2e • If WA was a country, it would be 43rd • After China, USA, Russia, India, & Japan… • WA falls between Kuwait and Chile • Global emissions projected to increase If WA achieves its goals • Not a large share of world emissions • Leadership matters – WA influences other states, the nation, other nations

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