DROUGHT, IMPACT AND MITIGATION

1. DROUGHT, IMPACT AND MITIGATION Dr. (Mrs.) AnupamaBaliarsingh Associate Professor Dept. of Agril. Meteorology OUAT, Bhubaneswar

2. Drought Drought is one of the natural hazards or natural disasters. When we hear the words natural disasters, we usually think of earthquakes, fires, floods, etc. These events are sudden and frightening, that can cause a great deal of devastation, and that make a lasting impression on us. Earthquake Disaster Fires Disaster Floods Disaster

3. Drought Drought usually is not the first disaster that comes to our mind! That is because drought, unlike floods or an earthquake, for example, usually does not have a sudden beginning or end. We can see floods, and feel an earthquake even before their damage, but we can only experience drought after its damage. Drought affected crop Drought affected livestock Water scarcity

4. Drought Drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate. It occurs almost everywhere, although its features vary from region to region. Defining drought is therefore difficult; it depends on differences in regions, needs, and disciplinary perspectives. In the most general sense, drought originates from a deficiency of rainfall over an extended period of time, resulting in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector.

5. Drought • Different disciplines have different perceptions about drought. • Meteorologists define drought as rainless or rain- deficit period. • Plant Physiologists or Agronomists consider drought as a condition of shortage of moisture for growing crops. • Hydrologists refers to deficiencies in surface and • subsurface water supplies measured as stream flow and as lake, reservoir, and groundwater levels. • Socio-economists view drought as water shortage • affecting people – individually and collectively over a region/country.

6. For a farmer drought means that there is not enough water in the soil for crops to grow normally or not enough of grass for the livestock. For farmers who rely on irrigation to produce their crops, drought may be a shortage of water in reservoirs, streams, or wells (groundwater), and irrigation may be restricted to grow a good crop. For example, the drought leads to delayed sowing or poor growth of standing crop or even no possibility to grow any crop.

7. Features of drought When the annual rainfall is less than 75% of normal rainfall in 20% of the years examined, then the year is considered as drought year as per the Central Water Commission in India.

8. Features of drought However, the criteria for determining the drought occurrence differs in different parts of the world. United States (1942): less than 2.5 mm of rainfall in 48 hours. Great Britain (1936): 15 consecutive days with daily precipitation totals of less than 25 mm. Libya (1964): annual rainfall less than 180 mm. Bali, Indonesia (1964): a period of six days without rain.

9. Features of drought Drought occurs more frequently in the arid and semi-arid regions, where the variation in annual rainfall is high. In the arid areas with mean annual rainfall generally less than 400 mm, drought is a very frequent phenomenon. In semi-arid regions, where the mean annual rainfall varies from 400 to 1000 mm, droughts occur in 40 to 60% of the years either due to deficit in seasonal rainfall or of prolonged dry spells between successful rainfall during the main cropping season.

10. Features of drought The regions in a country can also be categorized as drought prone areas based on the frequency of drought occurrence in the region. For example, in India: Western parts of West Rajasthan and Kuch are chronically drought affected. Other areas under dry farming tract come under drought areas (40% of the years examined). The humid and per-humid regions such as Assam rarely face drought. In contrast the hot arid regions can have a frequency of drought once every 2.5 years.

11. Drought A period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of water to cause serious hydrological imbalance in the affected area Drought is characterized by moisture deficit resulting either from • Belownormal rainfall • erratic rainfall distribution • higher water need • or a combination of all the three factors

12. Rainfall Characteristics in Rainfed Agricultural Regions • Annual Rainfall ranges from 300 to 1400 mm • 80% of rain received from SW monsoon in four months (Jun-Sep) • Coefficient of variability for the onset and regional distribution - very high • Rainfall in NE monsoon season is significant in peninsular India, but not so in Orissa

13. Indian summer monsoon – Interannual variations

14. Analysis of Intraseasonal variations - Monsoon(2002) Break periods (5-15) (22-30) July July

15. Types of Drought • Meteorolgoical Drought : Rainfall deficit • Hydrological Drought : Surface and underground water scarcity • Agricultural Drought : Crops do not get enough water from rainfall or soil

16. METEROLOGICAL DROUGHT (IMD approach) 3 types: based on % deficit of rainfall from normal Mild drought: Seasonal rainfall deficiency is between 19 to 25% of normal rainfall. Moderate drought: Seasonal rainfall deficiency is between 26 to 50% of normal rainfall. Severe drought: Seasonal rainfall deficiency is more than 50% of the normal rainfall.

17. Agricultural Drought • Occurs sequentially last out of 3 droughts. • Drought recurrence is normal in our climate • Occurs both in high and low rainfall areas • Mainly unpredictable and realised after occurrence • Slow progress but severe effect

18. Rainfall criteriaAgricultural drought kharif - At least four consecutive weeks receiving less than half of the normal rainfall (> 5 mm) Rabi- Six such consecutive weeks

19. Features of drought Early season drought • The early season droughts occur during the beginning stages of rainy season. • This type of drought is identified based on the • Optimum sowing periods for the different crops under rainfed conditions, • Amount of rainfall needed to complete the sowing in a given region, and • The initial amount of rainfall required for safe germination and establishment of the crop stand.

20. Features of drought Mid-season drought • The mid-season droughts occur some time during the middle of the rainy season. • This type of drought is identified based on the • Adverse effect on the standing crop, • Amount of rainfall needed for the continuation of stage of the standing crop, and • The amount of rainfall required during the critical stages of the standing crop.

21. Features of drought Late season drought • The late season droughts occur • some time during the concluding • period of the rainy season. • This type of drought is identified • based on the • Amount of rainfall needed at the reproductive stage of the standing crop, and • The amount of rainfall required for ripening and maturity stages of the standing crop.

22. DROUGHT IMPACT

23. RAINFED AGRICULTURE • Rainfed agriculture occupies a prominent place in Indian economy and rural livelihoods. • At present, about 60% of total net sown area is rainfed, contributing 40% of the total food production. • It supports 40% of human and 60% of livestock population. • Coarse cereals (87.5%), pulses (87.5%), oilseeds (77%), rice (48%) and cotton (65.7%) are predominantly grown under rainfed farming. • The crop production in rainfed region has inherent risks because rain is undependable in time and amount. • Agriculture in rainfed areas continues to be a gamble and rainfed farmers face several uncertainties like aberrant weather, lack of timely inputs and credit leading to low and unstable productivity and profitability.

24. DROUGHT IMPACT? We often talk about impacts of drought as either direct or indirect, because drought impacts can cause a chain reaction of events that lead to additional drought impacts. For example, a direct impact of drought may be that a farmer loses his groundnut crop.

25. Direct effects • Direct effects are those that are caused by the drought itself. • examples: • Lower water level and availability • Reduced crop productivity. • Less of fodder for livestock • Increased pests and diseases in crops and among livestock.

26. Indirect effects • Indirect effects are as a result of direct effects. • examples: • Shortage of water for drinking and industry • Food shortage and increased commodity prices • Unemployment • Disaster relief programs.

27. How drought affects agriculture? A direct outcome of the shortage in rainfall leading to drought situation has been on crop production. Drought not only affects crop/crops in individual farmer’s field but also damages the crops grown in the entire region exposed to the drought.

28. How drought affects agriculture? The loss in crop yields in the farmer’s field and in the region ultimately reflect in the crop production in the country as a whole.

29. How drought affects agriculture? The extent of damage to crop/s depend on the stage of the crop and the timing, period and severity of drought. Early-season Drought Late-season Drought Mid-season Drought

30. Early Season Drought • Effect of delayed rains and early season drought: • Delay in field operations • Delay in sowing or untimely sowing of crops • Poor germination • Low crop stand • Weak seedlings • Susceptibility to pests and diseases. Poor germination and poor crop stand

31. Effect of mid-season drought • Poor tillering • No or delayed flowering • Drying of pollen • Increased costs for irrigation • Higher susceptibility to pests and diseases. Delayed flowering in sorghum

32. late-season or terminal drought • Poor seed/pod/ fruit setting • Low crop yields • Low quality produce • Increased costs for irrigation • Susceptibility to pests and diseases. Drought affected sorghum with very low yields

33. Drought affects livestock management Most of the farmers keep livestock to carry out the farm operations and also to supplement their food needs, in terms of milk and meat, of their families. Any excess livestock products earn extra money for them. So any impact of drought on their farming activities will reflect on the management and upkeep of the livestock with them.

34. Drought affects livestock management • Less or no fodder for the livestock as the crops are adversely affected by drought. • High cost of fodder with the reduced availability of fodder in the farms. • Increased expenses for transporting the fodder from neighboring areas. • Unavailability or high cost of water for livestock.

35. Drought affects livestock management • Reduced milk and livestock products • Forced selling of the livestock • Cost of new or supplemental water resource development (wells, pipelines) • Decreased health of livestock • Higher mortality rates of livestock.

36. Economic effects due to drought • Reduced production of food and allied food products • Decreased availability of dairy and livestock products • Loss to industries directly dependent on agricultural production (e.g., machinery and fertilizer manufacturers, food processors, dairies, etc.) • Cost of water transport or transfer • Cost of new or supplemental water resource development

37. Economic effects due to drought • Increased commodity prices • Revenue losses to state, and local governments • Increased demand for monetary assets and increased interest rates • Reduction of economic development • Decrease of gross national product and economic growth

38. Drought affects the environment • Damage to crop and livestock habitat including fish • Increased ground water depletion, and reduced recharge • Lower water levels in reservoirs, lakes and ponds • Reduced flow from springs, stream flow, and rivers • Less drinking water and poor water quality due to increased salts

39. How drought impacts compared with other natural disasters? • How long do the events last? • Drought: months, years, or decades • Flood: from hours to weeks • Earthquake: months

40. How drought impacts compared with other natural disasters? • How many fatalities do this disaster usually cause every year? • Drought: Rarely a direct cause of death. But, stress associated with drought events may contribute to some deaths. • Flood: Causes few hundreds of deaths. • Earthquake: For example, In Latur District, Maharashtra, 7,928 people were killed in September 1993.

41. Physical • Social • Economic • Environmental • Regional Inequality • Rural Urban Inequality • Human Population • (health & other) Livestock Population (number, health) Livestock Population (number, health) Unemployment Water Resources (Domestic water quality and quantity) Agricultural Production Demand for Credit Availability of food and fodder Generation of Hydroelectric Power • Export Earnings • Imports Water availability for household, Irrigation, etc. Migration Industrial Output Water Intensive non-agricultural production Income Inequality Inflation Environmental natural resources, water, biodiversity Household Assets Private Savings Savings Government Revenue Dependence on Remittances Commodity Prices Government Expenditure on Relief Indebtedness Real Wages Livestock number, fertility, health and fodder availability Inter household income inequality Livestock Export/ Sale Ground and Surface water Resources Emotional State of Starving individuals Migrant Remittances Public Debt

42. DROUGHT IN ODISHA

43. Weather in Odisha • Odisha receives nearly 1451 mm of rainfall annually of which 80% is received in a span of monsoon months (June-September), which is quantitatively enough to meet the water requirements of most of the crops. • However, the aberration in temporal and spatial distribution makes the crops vulnerable to drought as well as flood. • The occurrence of drought and flood is common in Orissa.

44. CROP CONTINGENT MEASURES FOR DROUGHT The adverse effects of drought on crops can be combated in two ways : (a) Preventive measures (b) Ameliorative measures or contingent measures.

45. Year Districts Affected 1987 13 1996 28 1997 16 1998 26 2000 29 2002 29 Drought in 10 2004 Districts 2005 State wide droughts Natural calamities during last 100 years in Odisha Flood : 55 Drought : 39. Cyclone : 11 MAJOR DROUGHTS IN THE STATE Odisha is most disaster prone state in the country 1999 Super cyclone 2003 Flood in 23 Districts 2006 - Floods in 10 districts 2007 - Floods in 06 districts 2008 - – Flood in 19 Districts

46. Rainfall Situation in 2011

47. Rainfall Situation in 2012

48. Rainfall Situation in 2015

49. Cumulative rainfall during 2011,12, and 15