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Climate Change and Health

Climate Change and Health. The Arctic Forum May 19-20 2005 Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H. Deep Ocean Warming. Oceans: 14.2 x 10 22 J Atmosphere: 6.6 x 10 21 J Levitus et al. Science 2000; 287:2225. Parrilla et al. Nature 1994;369:48. Model Projections: Heatwaves.

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Climate Change and Health

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  1. Climate Change and Health The Arctic Forum May 19-20 2005 Paul R. Epstein, M.D., M.P.H.

  2. Deep Ocean Warming Oceans: 14.2 x 1022 J Atmosphere: 6.6 x 1021 J Levitus et al. Science 2000; 287:2225 Parrilla et al. Nature 1994;369:48

  3. Model Projections: Heatwaves

  4. Summer 2003 HeatwaveFrance, Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal 21-35,000 Deaths 2003 Summer Temperatures 10oC (18oF) >30year average Source: NASA

  5. Crop failures Ozone 10% alpine melt Wildfires

  6. Walking on Thin Ice Winter Weather Anomalies • Fog, Ice Storms & Road Travel • Floods & Mudslides • Ice Instability, Heavy Precipitation & Avalanches • Infrastructure Damage and Water Q&Q TRAUMA, TRAVEL & TOURISM

  7. The Changing Shape of the Curve O U T L I E R S • STABILITY • Rates of change • Variability • Gradients • Number of components changing

  8. EMERGING HEALTH ISSUES Trauma: vehicular, pedestrian Emotional/mental illness and alcoholism Ice melts: pulses of contaminants Food webs: marine and terrestrial for humans, birds and bears

  9. Air Pollution and Climate Change Socio/economic/emotional factors Indoor pollutants Diesel Particles Mold & Pollen Pollen & CO2 ASTHMA 2-3x Since 1980s Floods &Fungi Ground-level Ozone & Heat Waves Droughts &Fires

  10. Ground-level Ozone and Temperature T NOXs and VOCs O3

  11. RAGWEED POLLEN PRODUCTIONand CO2 p = 0.005 Wayne et al., 2002: Annals of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology 8:279

  12. CO2 Dome

  13. Emerging Infectious Diseases • 30 “NEW” TO MEDICINE SINCE 1976 • HIV/AIDS Legionnaires’ • E. coli O157:H7 MDRTB & others • SARS nvCJD • HPS Vibrio cholerae O139 • Nipah virus Ebola • Arenaviruses Lyme disease • RESURGENT & REDISTRIBUTING • Malaria, DF, WNV, Leptospirosis, • Cholera, Avian Flu VECTORS Mosquitoes Ticks Rodents Bats Tsetse Flies Fleas Lice Snails Algae

  14. Lyme Disease PREDATORS OF DEER WARMER WINTERS 1980s 1990s TICK DISTRIBUTION IN SWEDEN Lindgren & Gustafson. Lancet 2001;358:16

  15. MONTANE REGIONS

  16. 1993 FLOODS: Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome, Cryptosporidiosis, Malaria, Gulf Dead Zone 1993 Drought, Then Early Rains 10X Explosion of Mice Populations

  17. WNV: A Disease Of Wildlife • 230 SPECIES 44 STATES, DC, 5 CANADIAN PROVINCES • 138 Bird spp., RAPTORS • - 37 spp. of mosquitoes • HORSES • ZOO animals • REPTILES AVIAN FLYWAYS

  18. Ecological Ripples Infectious Diseases: Forces Of Global Change Raptors Rodents Lyme disease Hantaviruses Arenaviruses Leptospirosis Toxoplasmosis Plague

  19. Range Expansion of Crop Pestsin North America XB Yang et al. 2000 Generations/Year

  20. Drought, Bark Beetles & Fires Wildfires, Wildlife, Injury and Respiratory Disease

  21. EMERGING PESTS and PATHOGENS Human Wildlife Livestock Crops T R E E S Marine Life

  22. Costs of Extreme Weather Events Insurance & Reinsurance, Corporations, FEMA, OFDA, NGOs, Nation States, UN Agencies Av. $40 B/y Av. $4 B/y UNEP $150B/y w/in this decade

  23. OIL LIFE CYCLE COSTS Harm Marine Mammals Shore birds Fisheries Consumers Livelihoods Spills & Leaks Exploration Extraction Transport Refining Transport MERCURY Air Pollution Eutrophication NOxs Acid Rain Combustion Warming Oceans Coral Reefs SLR EWEs Melting Polar Ice Climate Change

  24. Enabling Financial Architecture For Sustainable Development REGULATORY FUNDS, SUBSIDIES, TAX INCENTIVES THE ENGINE OF GROWTH for the 21st CENTURY INSTITUTIONAL • EE, RE and DG • “Green Buildings” & Smart Growth • Rationalized Transport & Transit • Retrofitting Infrastructure • Ecological Reconstruction

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