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NC Statewide Model Development NCSTM Update

NC Statewide Model Development NCSTM Update. NCAMPO Meeting May 2012. Statewide Model Zones(SMZs). SMZ’s- 2577. MPO Areas -Aggregated Zones RPO Areas -Census Blocks. National Model Zones (NMZs). 317 NMZs. Total of 2894 NCSTM Zones. NCSTM Networks. Links 162K Total 102K in NC

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NC Statewide Model Development NCSTM Update

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  1. NC Statewide ModelDevelopmentNCSTMUpdate NCAMPO Meeting May 2012

  2. Statewide Model Zones(SMZs) SMZ’s- 2577 MPO Areas-Aggregated Zones RPO Areas-Census Blocks

  3. National Model Zones (NMZs) 317 NMZs Total of 2894 NCSTM Zones

  4. NCSTM Networks Links 162K Total 102K in NC Centroid Connectors-10,000

  5. Household Data 2010 Census Data Woods & Poole Adjustments Population Household Population Households Group Quarters Ave HH Income Workers Military Group Quarters

  6. NCSTM Employment • Sources • INFOUSA • Woods & Poole • Employment Security • Commission

  7. Model Overview National Model Statewide Model NHTS Long-Distance NHTS Add-on Sample NC Triangle truck survey FAF3 Socio-Economic Data Person Trips TrucksTrips Trip Extraction Trip Generation Trip Generation Flow Extraction Disaggregation Destination Choice Trip Distribution Disaggregation Mode Choice IItrips IItrips EI/IE/EEtrips EI/IE/EE trips Multi-class Assignment

  8. Trip generation

  9. Trip Generation Design Classification • Four Household Sizes – 1,2,3,4+ • Five Income Classifications < $20,000 $20,000-$35,000 $35,000-$55,000 $55,000-$80,000 >$80,000 • Three Area Types- • Urban, Suburban, Rural • Three North Carolina Regions

  10. NCSTM Regions

  11. Trip Purposes Five Trip Purposes Defined • Home-Based Work (by five income classes) • Home-Based Other • Home-Based Shop • Non-Home Based (places other than work) • Non-Home Based Work (from Work sites)

  12. Productions & Attractions

  13. MPO Comparison

  14. Trip Generation

  15. Trip distribution(Destination Choice)

  16. hbw1 = (1*[Retail Employees]+ 1.292*[High Retail Employees]+ 0.541*[Office Employees]+ 0.888*[Service Employees]+ 0.425*[Government Employees]+ 0.678*[Education Employees]+ 0.415*[Hospital Employees]+ 0.425*[Military Employees]+ 0.685*[Industrial Employees]+ 0.599*[High Industrial Employees]) * exp(0.8+ 0.081*GeneralizedCost+ -0.1*Distance+ 0.001*Distance2)) +DistanceK

  17. Model Results - HBW

  18. Model Results - HBO

  19. Long distance auto

  20. Person Long-Distance Travel IE EE II EI

  21. Regional Hospitals Data collected by IEM

  22. Number of Hotel Rooms

  23. Daily visitors to parks

  24. Long distance trucks

  25. Concept of National Truck Model FAF3 data County Employment Freight flows between 3,241 counties NC Zonal Employment Freight flows NCSTM Zones Payload factors Truck trip O/D matrix Empty-Truck Rate Truck trip O/D matrix with empty trucks

  26. Distribution Centers Truck Distribution Center Intermodal Facility Air/Rail/Water

  27. Distribution Centers & Intermodal Facilities GSO RDU CLT Port of Morehead City Port of Wilmington Data collected by IEM

  28. Short distance trucks

  29. NCSTM-TRC Meeting Trip Production Rate Comparison

  30. Model vs Count Validation Comparison (cont.) GTR Total Trucks QRFM Total Trucks

  31. Average Trip Length

  32. Mode Choice

  33. Mode Choice Modeling in NCSTM • In urban regions, transit share is based on MPO/Regional models. Activity density is used to allocate transit share to NCSTM zones • Between urban areas, r3logit models mode choice explicitly.

  34. MPO/Regional Model Transit Share Winston-Salem Greensboro Raleigh Charlotte Fayetteville

  35. Nested Model Structure of r3logit Person Trip Auto Transit Drive- Alone HOV2 HOV3 HOV4+ Bus Rail Air

  36. r3logit Model Concept • Model applied for long-distance trips > 50 miles • Transit access is assumed to be drive-access only (Who walks to the airport?) • Variables that drive r3logit:

  37. Initial Results

  38. Screenlines

  39. Total Screenlines

  40. Absolute Screenlines

  41. Auto Screenlines

  42. Other Statewide Models 6 Models Ohio Oregon Maryland

  43. Districts

  44. Example District

  45. Schedule • Calibration Adjustments • Mid-June • Future Year Coding • End of summer

  46. Model interface

  47. NCSTM Interface Status • Can Run All Steps, Stages (groups of steps), or Individual Steps

  48. NCSTM Interface Status • “Reports” button for each step provides results from each step – such as district-district trips or VMT by County

  49. District-District Home-Based Shopping Trips Report Examples Productions and Attractions summed to MPO Model Areas

  50. Vehicle-Miles Traveled, Vehicle-Hours Traveled, and other information by Selected Summary Levels Report Examples

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