Severe Weather Planning

1. Severe Weather Planning Andy Bailey National Weather Service Kansas City / Pleasant Hill, MO

2. Agenda • Importance of Weather • NWS Overview • What is available on the web • Planning and Safety Rules

3. Economic and Societal Impacts Annual CostDeaths Tornadoes : $2.9 billion 44 Floods: $2.4 billion 96 Hurricanes: $6.4 billion 20 Winter Storms > $1 Billion 47 Lighning > $1 Billion 175 Hail $2.3 Billion

4. Weather Impacts… • Power generation costs • Shipping costs • Transportation costs (airlines etc) • Building material costs • Heating / cooling costs • Food prices • Insurance rates • Employee costs

5. Weather Impacts… How does weather impact your employees? • Telecommute? • Snow days at child’s school • Sick days • Missed / delayed flights

6. How does weather affect your business?

7. What are you doing to plan for weather?

8. NWS Overview

9. What We Do • Produce Weather, Water and Climate Forecasts and Warnings • For All Americans • To Protect Life and Property • To Enhance the National Economy • Data and Products: • Government Agencies • Private Sector • The Public • Global Communities • Weather and data are becoming more important to economy and business decisions • “The annual cost of electricity could decrease by at least $1 billion if the accuracy of weather forecasts improved 1 degree Fahrenheit.” USA Today, 6/19/01

10. What We Do • The NWS is the only OFFICIAL voice for issuing severe weather warnings. • Produce public, aviation, and fire weather forecasts • Provide support to other local, state and federal government agencies. • River and flood forecasts and services • Largest data collection network in the world • NOAA Weather Radio • Skywarn Spotter Program • Cooperative Observation Program • Outreach projects

11. National Weather Service Offices Nationwide

12. Background Information • Lots and Lots of free NWS stuff available • National Weather Service limits on services • Private Weather Vendors • $$ for interpretation and customized service

13. . How a Forecast was Made 2) Forecaster looks at forecast guidance from several numerical weather prediction models and begins making a mental image of the forecast

14. How a Forecast was Made • Once the forecaster creates the mental image of the forecast they then used to… • Type the aviation forecast • Type the public forecast • Type the fire weather forecast • The forecaster could spend up to 3 hours a day typing!

15. New Forecast Method • Observed and computer forecast guidance acts as base forecast • Forecaster then adjusts the gridded model forecast in a digital forecast database to best match expected forecast • Digital forecast database is the source for traditional forecasts, and new highly customized forecasts

16. Computer forecasts directly input into Graphical Forecast Editing Software

17. Forecasters edit gridded digital data

18. Temp Dewpoint RH Wind Sky Weather Probability of Precip Snow amounts Rain amounts Numerous Fire Weather Parameters Not Just Temperature

19. Formats Available • Free in GIS integratable “grids” • XML Web Service • Graphics nws.noaa.gov/ndfd

20. Every Local NWS Office has an extensive web page • Forecasts • Radar • Climate • Warnings

21. Getting Your Forecast Click on your location Available in other formats

22. Forecast in Yet Another Format…

23. Interpreting Radar Data How Radar works

24. NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill WSR-88D Capabilities • Reflectivity • “Hot” colors means more intense echoes (heavy rain/hail) • Simply a measure of “reflected” energy • Velocity • “Warm” colors -Winds blowing away from the radar • “Cool” colors –Winds blowing toward the radar

25. Radar Precipitation Estimates • Overestimate Causes: • Hail Contamination • Evaporation in sub • cloud layer • Underestimate Causes: • Tropical-like regimes

26. Products to Anticipate Severe Weather • HWO • Provides an outlook up to seven days out to the potential for severe weather • Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch • Provides a few hours notice that conditions are condusive to severe weather should storms develop • Warnings • Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or imminent

27. Anticipating Severe Weather • Hazardous Weather Outlook • Focus on expected threats. • Seven day outlook for severe weather. • Issued twice daily 6 a.m. and 1 p.m. • Broadcast continuously on NWR.

28. Products to Anticipate Severe Weather • HWO • Provides an outlook up to seven days out to the potential for severe weather • Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch • Provides a few hours notice that conditions are conducive to severe weather should storms develop • Warnings • Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or imminent

29. Severe Weather Watch URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN ILLINOIS EASTERN KANSAS MOST OF MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 1000 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF EMPORIA KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. • WATCH • Conditions are favorable for a severe weather event in or near the watch area • Watches are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Floods and Floods

30. Products to Anticipate Severe Weather • HWO • Provides an outlook up to seven days out to the potential for severe weather • Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch • Provides a few hours notice that conditions are conducive to severe weather should storms develop • Warnings • Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or imminent

31. Severe Weather Warning BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO807 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI * UNTIL 845 PM CST * AT 804 PM CST...TRAINED SPOTTERS ARE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR KNOB NOSTER. DOPPLER IS SHOWING THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR… HOUSTONIA BY 815 PM CST.THE TOWNS OF EMMA…NESLON AND BLACKWATER ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.THE SAFEEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE…SEEK SHELTER IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES…EVACUATE THEN AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE…LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. LAT...LON 3899 9365 3885 9359 3887 9293 3913 9295 • WARNING • A severe weather event is imminent or occurring in the Warned area • Warnings are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Floods, and Floods Warned Area

32. County-Based VS Storm-Based Warnings

33. How Walmart Uses Polygons Walmart EOC uses GIS to overlay polygons onto a store location map Walmart EOC then calls individual stores affected by warnings alerting them of the threat

34. Storm Prediction Center Website www.spc.noaa.gov Good place for large scale outlook maps, and technical discussions as to severe weather threats across the country.

35. How To Receive Warnings • NOAA Weather Radio • Nationwide network • Alarm Feature • Portable devices available • Programmable to customize by location or warning type desired • Equip every facility with one

36. Overall Planning/Safety Before the season begins… • Create your weather safety plan and train employees/volunteers During the season… • Maintain your situational awareness • Assign a person or position to be the weather watcher • If thunderstorms are forecast, be sure to communicate appropriate threats and safety info • Practice, Practice, Practice

37. Threats From Thunderstorms • The biggest threat from thunderstorms at outdoor events is lightning. • Other risks include Hail… • straight-line winds >80 mph • possibly a tornado • flooding in multiuse areas

38. Threats From Thunderstorms-Lightning • Kills more people than tornadoes • Dangerous at great distances from parent storm • 30-30 rule • If the time between seeing lightning and hearing thunder is less than 30 seconds seek shelter immediately • Don’t emerge from shelter until 30 minutes after last thunder is heard-many deaths occur after the storm has passed

39. Threats From Thunderstorms-Hail • If you event has thousands or even hundreds of attendees, the potential for numerous injuries is high. • If you follow the 30/30 lightning rule, hail should not be an issue.

40. Questions to Ponder • Do you have a severe weather plan for work and home? (if so do you practice it?) • How can you integrate weather preparedness and data into your companies operations? • How can your business perform better, and keep employees and customers safe using weather data? • What’s stopping you from taking action?

41. Questions? andy.bailey@noaa.gov