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Pete Lawson, Libby Logerwell, Nate Mantua, Bob Francis, and Vera Agostini

Closing the Loop: Modeling the coho salmon life cycle in the context of habitat, climate, and management. Pete Lawson, Libby Logerwell, Nate Mantua, Bob Francis, and Vera Agostini. Queets River. O. D. O. O. D. OCN Coho. O. O. D. O. D. OCN Oregon Coastal Natural Coho salmon

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Pete Lawson, Libby Logerwell, Nate Mantua, Bob Francis, and Vera Agostini

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  1. Closing the Loop: Modeling the coho salmon life cycle in the context of habitat, climate, and management Pete Lawson, Libby Logerwell, Nate Mantua, Bob Francis, and Vera Agostini

  2. Queets River O D O O D OCN Coho O O D O D • OCN • Oregon Coastal Natural • Coho salmon • Aggregate of 13 basins • Rain-fed streams • Threatened status (on and off) D Air Temperature Data O Streamflow Data

  3. The OCN Problem: OCN Recruits (t+1) and Spawners (t-2)

  4. OCN Recruits (t+1) and OPIH survival (t)

  5. OCN smolts and smolts/spawner reconstructed from OPIH- and GAM-estimated marine survivals. 1992 estimate omitted from analysis.

  6. Environmentaldata sets -- freshwater • 1969-1999 smolt year • Stream Flow • From 6 USGS gauging stations • Monthly mean flow • Standardized at each station, then averaged • Air Temperature • From 3 WRCC locations • Annual mean air temperature • Standardized at each station, then averaged

  7. Partial plots for OCN smolts Annual Temperature Fall Transitionv Fall Transition Winter Flow (t1) Spring Flow (t1)

  8. Observed and fitted OCN smolts Smolts Year

  9. So why should we believe this? Because I repeated the analysis with a completely independent data set from the Queets River, Washington. • One basin • Glacier-fed • 1981-2000 smolt years • Smolts and spawners measured directly • No dams • Flow data from USGS -- one station • Air temperature data from WRCC -- one station

  10. Results for Queets Smolts Winter Flow (t1) Annual Temperature Smolts Year

  11. The bottom line:Marine and freshwater environmental variables are correlated so that good (poor) marine survival is associated with good (poor) freshwater production. Marine Freshwater

  12. Spawners Early * Late * fecundity OO OO ++ ++ Eggs Metapopulation Dynamics Population Dynamics Harvest Management Freshwater Habitat Marine Survival Climate Patterns

  13. <= 35% = 200 thousand

  14. Local Extinction Probabilities with Zero Harvest and Two Harvest Policies

  15. DON’T PANIC! The model is definitive, reality may vary.

  16. Nine Questions to Validate Models 1. Is the structure adequate to serve the purposes for which it will be used? 2. What characteristics of the simulated system have been left out or simplified? 3. What might the effects be? 4. How do model structure and behavior compare to similar models? 5. How are uncertainty and error incorporated into the analysis, and how do the results depend on uncertainties and assumptions?

  17. Nine Questions to Validate Models (cont'd) 6. Are the parameter definitions and ranges justifiable? 7. Does the model produce expected behaviors for ordinary, as well as extraordinary cases-i.e., have the authors defined the range over which the model is valid, and the circumstances under which the model is questionable or invalid? 8. Does the model respond appropriately and usefully to simulated policies? 9. How does the analysis relate to the problem as it is defined, and the conclusions drawn?

  18. Lawson 1993

  19. PDO Projected by Hadley Centre Model

  20. Peter LawsonNMFS/NWFSC2030 SE Marine Science DriveNewport, OR 97365541-867-0430peter.w.lawson@noaa.gov

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