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Linking Climate Variability to Salmon Recovery: Mechanisms and Scenarios

This study explores the mechanisms that connect climate variability to the survival of salmon in the marine environment. The researchers analyze various variables such as upwelling, sea surface temperature, and ocean conditions to understand their effects on salmon survival. They also examine the linkages between these variables and climate indices. The study highlights the importance of considering climate variability in salmon recovery scenarios and explores the potential impacts on salmon life stages and habitat characteristics. The researchers also address uncertainties related to biological dimensions, predators, prey, climate forecasts, and anthropogenic changes.

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Linking Climate Variability to Salmon Recovery: Mechanisms and Scenarios

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  1. Generating scenarios of salmon recovery: what are the mechanisms linking climate variability to marine survival? E. Logerwell1, N. Mantua2, P. Lawson3, R. Francis4 and V. Agostini4 1Alaska Fisheries Science Center 2 Univ. Washington School of Marine Affairs/Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean 3 Northwest Fisheries Science Center 4 Univ. Washington School of Aquatic and Fisheries Science

  2. above average below average Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index Salmon and Climate Mantua, et al. 1997

  3. Oregon Production Index (OPI) Coho Salmon

  4. OPI Coho Survival

  5. Previous studies link coho survival to ... • Upwelling (Nickelson, 1986) • Sea surface temperature (Cole, 2000) • Spring transition (Ryding & Skalski, 1999) • Spring and winter ocean conditions (Koslow, et al. in press)

  6. Our study of coho survival • Select variables that represent local nearshore conditions • GAM to understand effects of ocean processes on survival • Examine linkages between model variables and climate indices

  7. Conceptual model

  8. Winter (Jan-Mar) before smolt migration Spring (April-June) Winter (Jan-Mar) after smolt migration Transition

  9. GAM Results

  10. Climate linkages • Indices • NPI (Aleutian Low) • PDO • ENSO • 1948-1997 • October-March

  11. NPI (Aleutian Low) Winter SST (after) Spring upwelling Spring transition Winter SST (before)

  12. PDO Winter SST (after) Spring upwelling Spring transition Winter SST (before)

  13. ENSO Winter SST (after) Spring upwelling Spring transition Winter SST (before)

  14. How might recovery scenarios affect salmon? • Life stage? • marine survival • Habitat characteristics? • winter SST, spring transition, spring upwelling • Forecasts? • climate linkages between NPI, PDO and pre-smolt winter SST

  15. Uncertainty? • Biological dimension of ocean habitat • Predators? • Prey? • Climate forecasts • Natural variability (El Niño, PDO, other) • Anthropogenic change

  16. Alternative scenarios? Can we make a similar forecast for ocean variables (such as SST) or climate variables (such as NPI)?

  17. Beth Sinclair and Tonya Zepplin http://nmml.afsc.noaa.gov/AlaskaEcosystems/sslhome/Program%20Review%20Presentations/Program%20Review.htm

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