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Dr. Suthep Chimklai (Project Coordinator) Le Meridien Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia 26 February 2009

Meeting Proceedings of HAPUA Working Group No. 2 presented to Joint Meeting of WG2, 5, 6 and APGCC. Dr. Suthep Chimklai (Project Coordinator) Le Meridien Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia 26 February 2009. Report on AIMS-II Result. Description of Study and Result Problems Recommended Solution.

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Dr. Suthep Chimklai (Project Coordinator) Le Meridien Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia 26 February 2009

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  1. Meeting Proceedings of HAPUA Working Group No. 2presented toJoint Meeting of WG2, 5, 6 and APGCC Dr. Suthep Chimklai (Project Coordinator) Le Meridien Hotel, Jakarta, Indonesia 26 February 2009

  2. Report on AIMS-II Result • Description of Study and Result • Problems • Recommended Solution

  3. Demand & Gen Supply in 2025(Individual) Co-in Demand 138,071.0 MW Total Gen Cap 192,434.4 MW Demand 4,212.0 MW Domestic 7,015.9 MW Import - MW Demand 1,200.0 MW Domestic 2,276.6 MW Import 260.0 MW Demand 4,301.0 MW Domestic 4,980.0 MW Import - MW Demand 21,245.0 MW Domestic 29,738.3 MW Import - MW Demand 59,754.0 MW Domestic 50,676.0 MW Import 18,489.6 MW Existing EE 300.0 MW Demand 1,077.0 MW Domestic 1,780.0 MW Import - MW Demand 2,332.0 MW Domestic 2,737.0 MW Import - MW Demand 26,827.0 MW Domestic 29,481.0 MW Import 2,000.0 MW Existing EE 700.0 MW Demand 12,225.0 MW Domestic 15,715.5 MW Import - MW Existing EE 400.0 MW Demand 1,517.0 MW Domestic 8,267.0 MW Import - MW Demand 13,329.0 MW Domestic 17,615.9 MW Import - MW Demand 1,063.0 MW Domestic 1,401.6 MW Import - MW

  4. AIMS II Result Vietnam-Lao PDR* HVAC PP (2007-2016) 1,887.0 MW *Results from AIMS-I Lao PDR-Neighbor PP (2021-2025) 260.0 MW Thailand-Lao PDR HVAC PP (Existing) 340.0 MW HVAC PP (2009-2015) 5,473.6 MW HVAC EE (2014) 600 MW Thailand-Cambodia HVAC EE (2014) 300.0 MW Thailand-Neighbor PP (2017-2024) 12,890.0 MW Sabah-Philippines HVDC EE (2015) 500.0 MW Thailand-P.Malaysia HVDC EE (Existing) 300.0 MW HVDC EE (2017) +300.0 MW P.Malaysia-Sarawak HVDC PP (2014) 1,000.0 MW HVDC PP (2015) 1,000.0 MW P.Malaysia-Sumatra HVDC EE (2017) 600.0 MW P.Malaysia-Singapore HVAC EE (Existing) 400.0 MW Additional PP – To be determined Singapore-Sumatra PP – To be determined Singapore-Batam PP – To be determined Sarawak-W.Kalimantan HVAC EE (2016) 100.0 MW

  5. Demand & Gen Supply in 2025(Interconnected) Total Gen Cap 187,789.4 MW Reduced Cap 4,645.0 MW Domestic 7,015.9 MW Import - MW EE - MW Domestic 2,276.6 MW Import 260.0 MW EE 600.0 MW Domestic 4,680.0 MW Import - MW EE 300.0 MW Domestic 29,138.3 MW Import - MW EE 500.0 MW Domestic 49,476.0 MW Import 18,489.6 MW EE 1,500.0 MW Domestic 1,780.0 MW Import - MW EE - MW Domestic 2,352.0 MW Import - MW EE 500.0 MW Domestic 28,011.0 MW Import 2,000.0 MW EE 1,600.0 MW New Capacity 15,715.5 MW EE 400.0 MW Domestic 8,267.0 MW Import - MW EE 100.0 MW Domestic 17,015.9 MW Import - MW EE 600.0 MW Domestic 1,311.6 MW Import - MW EE 100.0 MW

  6. Fuel Mix in 2025(Interconnected) System A (Upper West) ASEAN System System B (Lower West) System C (East)

  7. Savings (MUSD) Total Expenses Savings Individual Interconnected Capacity Cost57,799 56,873 926 Energy Cost169,677 169,371 306 Total227,476 226,244 1,232 Note: Present Value at the year 2007

  8. Conclusions • The Study confirms that APG is economically and technically feasible via 14 interconnection projects as followings: • which can save 1,232 MUSD on the total expenses of ESI Interconnection Type of Capacity Year Project Interconnection (MW) 1) Thailand-Lao PDR HVAC (PP) 5,473.6 2009-2015 2) Thailand-Lao PDR HVAC (EE) 600 2014 3) Thailand-Cambodia HVAC (EE) 300 2014 4) P.Malaysia-Sarawak HVDC (PP) 1,000/1,000 2014/2015 5) Sabah-Philippines HVDC (EE) 500 2015 6) Sarawak-W.Kalimantan HVAC (EE) 100 2016 7) P.Malaysia-Thailand (Additional) HVDC (EE) 300 2017 8) P.Malaysia-Sumatra HVDC (EE) 600 2017 9) Thailand-Neighboring Countries PP 12,890 2017-2024 10) Lao PDR-Neighboring Countries PP 260 2021-2025 11) Singapore-P.Malaysia PP To be determined To be determined 12) Singapore-Sumatra PP To be determined To be determined 13) Singapore-Batam PP To be determined To be determined 14) Vietnam-Lao PDR* HVAC (PP) 1,887 2007-2016 Note: * Results from AIMS-I

  9. Problems • It has been 3 years of uncertain situations due to oil crisis and economic crisis • WG members were lack of meetings & communication, and thus incomplete & outdated data were never formally confirmed • There are some discrepancies in the input data supplied by some countries, hence, resulting in unlikely output, e.g.

  10. Questionable Inputs Note A: Assumed data, which has never been formally confirmed X: Incomplete and unable to be assumed ?: Inconsistent data

  11. Candidates’ Construction Cost USD/kW

  12. Fuel Type Gas Diesel Oil Coal Nuclear Geothermal System A Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Thailand Vietnam               System B P.Malaysia Singapore Sumatra             System C Brunei Philippines Sabah Sarawak W.Kalimantan                

  13. Gas Price USD/MMBTU Year

  14. Diesel Price USD/MMBTU Year

  15. Oil Price USD/MMBTU Year

  16. Coal Price USD/MMBTU Year

  17. Uranium Price USD/MMBTU Year

  18. Geothermal Price USD/MMBTU Year

  19. Present Status The result was submitted to - The 3rd Meeting of APGCC (3 December 2008) and - The 9th Meeting of HAPUA WC (1-2 December 2008) - All member countries via email (16 January 2009) Feedback - TNB (Peninsular Malaysia): comment on their input data - EMA (Singapore): comment on their input data - EVN (Vietnam): submit their input data, but not relevant

  20. (Individual) Demand & Gen Supply in 2025 (Revise PM, Sg) Co-in Demand 138,071.0 MW Total Gen Cap 193,529.9MW Demand 4,212.0 MW Domestic 7,015.9 MW Import - MW Demand 1,200.0 MW Domestic 2,276.6 MW Import 260.0 MW Demand 4,301.0 MW Domestic 4,980.0 MW Import - MW Demand 21,245.0 MW Domestic 29,738.3 MW Import - MW Demand 59,754.0 MW Domestic 50,676.0 MW Import 18,489.6 MW Existing EE 300.0 MW Demand 1,077.0 MW Domestic 1,780.0 MW Import - MW Demand 2,332.0 MW Domestic 2,737.0 MW Import - MW Demand 26,827.0 MW Domestic 30,209.0 MW Import 2,000.0 MW (Existing EE 700.0 MW) Demand 12,225.0 MW Domestic 16,083.0 MW Import - MW (Existing EE 400.0 MW) Demand 1,517.0 MW Domestic 8,267.0 MW Import - MW Demand 13,329.0 MW Domestic 17,615.9 MW Import - MW Demand 1,063.0 MW Domestic 1,401.6 MW Import - MW

  21. Major Drawback • Not enough meetings • Communications through e-mail prove to be a failure • Resulting in incomplete data, slow responses from member countries, outcome not applicable, etc.

  22. Options • Acknowledge the result as it is, • 2) Update Vietnam’s input only • 3) Update all members’ input

  23. Action Plan (if continue on overall data update) • Data Updates for 9 member countries (except Cambodia as Cambodian delegates do not require further update) • Three working teams will be formed to facilitate data update and collection for the three sub-systems. Member countries to nominate their representatives to working teams. Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia will be coordinators for the three working teams, respectively. • Organize the Workshop on Input Data Preparation and Harmonization of Working Teams, in Thailand on March 2009 supported by HAPUA Secretariat • Conduct 3 meetings, in Laos, Malaysia and the Philippines, respectively for data verification, finalization and presentation of draft final result for generation system planning. Final result is expected in October 2009. • Transmission system study to be completed by May 2010.

  24. Work Schedule for continuation of AIMS-II

  25. Remarks from 3rd APGCC Meeting in Singapore • WG2 to clearly define the two levels of interconnection • Interconnection between two countries that will remain to be bilateral. (Power Purchases) • Interconnection that formed the backbone (Power Exchanges) • WG2 needs to complete all engineering design and viability of the project before it can be tabled as financially viable. (Will delete projects accordingly) • The Meeting took note of the need for WG2 to prepare the proposal to include the Scope of work and Cost on possibility of engaging external consultant to assist WG2 (OnlySO SWG may require external consultations when preparation of common reference guide)

  26. Remarks from 3rd APGCC Meeting in Singapore (Cont’d) • WG 2 role in preparing the common Grid Code of ASEAN Power Grid (Grid Code and Planning Criteria), the Code of Planning and Operation Rules • The Committee suggested WG2 look into the existing operating model of the EU or North American as well as GMS model • (SO SWG has already formulated an action plan to prepare a common reference guide to be undertaken during 2009 – 2012)

  27. Remarks from 3rd APGCC Meeting in Singapore (Cont’d) ACTION PLAN of SO SWG Milestones : - 2009 : To look at other interconnected utilities guidelines, for example NERC, EU and then determine the relevant references for ASEAN. - 2010 : To establish criteria of benchmarking system operation performance. - 2011 : To develop the first draft of common reference guide - 2012 : To issue the first version of common reference guide.

  28. Remarks from 3rd APGCC Meeting in Singapore (Cont’d) TOR of SO SWG • The 1st Meeting of SO SWG was held in Bogor, Indonesia on 27th - 28th January 2009 to finalize the TOR and formulate the action plan for common reference guide • SWG2 reviewed the TOR presented by the leader of SO SWG and endorsed the TOR

  29. Thank You For Your Attention

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