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The TC Tornado Database at SPC Background, Summary and Analyses

The TC Tornado Database at SPC Background, Summary and Analyses. WHY COMPILED. No “standardized” TC tornado database NOAA/NWS/SPC is logical source Need for consistent data for scientific and risk analysis Minimize climatological “shocks” (secular influences)

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The TC Tornado Database at SPC Background, Summary and Analyses

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  1. The TC Tornado Database at SPC Background, Summary and Analyses

  2. WHY COMPILED • No “standardized” TC tornado database • NOAA/NWS/SPC is logical source • Need for consistent data for scientific and risk analysis • Minimize climatological “shocks” (secular influences) • Database should be flexible: • UPDATABLE: Add new events each year • AMENDABLE: Change historical records as new information comes in or errors are uncovered • DISCLAIMER: Analytic results may change as added/changed data occur

  3. HOW COMPILED • SPC “ONETOR” WHOLE-TORNADO DATA • Stitched together NCDC county-segments • 1139 events in 1995-2008 (none in 2009, 2010 not in yet), will update yearly • Manually parsed TC tornadoes: analytically, no threshold radii or other inflexible criteria • HURRDAT for TORNADO TIME • TC position interpolated from 6-hourly lat/lon • TC motion based on vector between last and next 6-hourly best-track positions • TC intensity is last 6-hourly OFCL

  4. HOW COMPILED • IF NO HURRDAT (POST-CLASSIFICATION) • Rare (<1%) of TC tornadoes • TC remnant position and intensity: Used hourly sfc maps (via SPC archives or Plymouth State) • Must still have closed low • BASIC ANALYSES PROVIDED in TCTOR • Interpolated TC position/motion • Tornado AZRAN from interpolated center • Tornadoes per TC and per year

  5. SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS Geography of TCTOR events

  6. SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS TCTOR Summary by Year

  7. SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS

  8. SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS Tornadic TC strength and ranks

  9. SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS AZRAN of TCTOR events from center

  10. SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS Motion-relative AZRAN of TCTOR events from center: Northward translation component Motion-relative AZRAN of TCTOR events from center: Southward translation component

  11. SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS Cartesian:ALL Cartesian:Hurricanes Cartesian:TS Cartesian:< TD

  12. SOME ANALYTIC RESULTS AZRANs for IVAN Distribution by damage rating

  13. APPLIED ANALYSES Convective modes for tornado cases 2003-2008 • Assessed case-by-case for 664 GRIDDED and FILTERED tornadoes • 238 DISCRETE SUPERCELLS (36%) • 232 SUPERCELLS-IN-CLUSTERS (35%) • 64 SUPERCELLS-IN-LINES (10%) • 53 MARGINAL “PSEUDOCELLS” (8%) • 77 NONSUPERCELLS OF ALL MODES (12%) (These were broken down by mode…small samples) Edwards et al. 2010

  14. APPLIED ANALYSES MODE EXAMPLE: Discrete Supercell (Ivan-04) Edwards et al. 2010

  15. APPLIED ANALYSES MODE EXAMPLE: Nonsupercell in Cluster (Arlene-05) Edwards et al. 2010

  16. APPLIED ANALYSES MODE EXAMPLE: MRGL in Line (Gustav-08) Edwards et al. 2010

  17. APPLIED ANALYSES Supercells in general, discrete ones in particular, represent greatest risk for SIGNIFICANT TC tornadoes. Edwards et al. 2010

  18. APPLIED ANALYSES Edwards et al. 2010

  19. APPLIED ANALYSES MESOCYCLONE CLASSES by MODE Edwards et al. 2010

  20. APPLIED ANALYSES Environments of tornadic TC cells 2003-2008 • BASED ON 2003-2008 SPC GRIDDED RUC-“SFCOA” DATASET • NUMEROUS PARAMETERS DERIVED FROM RECONSTITUTED GRIDPOINT SOUNDINGS • TC TORNADO ENVIRONMENTS ANALYZED IN BULK • TC TORNADO ENVIRONMENTS ANALYZED BY CONVECTIVE MODE • TC AND NON-TC TORNADO ENVIRONMENTS COMPARED TO EACH OTHER • MESOCYCLONE STRENGTH FOR SUPERCELLS Edwards et al. 2010

  21. APPLIED ANALYSES ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Edwards et al. 2010

  22. DATABASE ONLINE:www.spc.noaa.gov/ misc / edwards / TCTOR / TCTOR.xls misc / edwards / TCTOR / readme.txt DOCUMENTATION: www.spc.noaa.gov/publications Contact: Roger.Edwards@noaa.gov

  23. SPC CALL FOR INPUT In differentiating organized southeastern pulse/multicell severe environments

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