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P.Lionello Univ. of Salento, Lecce, Italy email: piero.lionello@unile.it

European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008. European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008. Analysing the links between the present trends of precipitation and cyclone activity. P.Lionello

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P.Lionello Univ. of Salento, Lecce, Italy email: piero.lionello@unile.it

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  1. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Analysing the links between the present trends of precipitation and cyclone activity P.Lionello Univ. of Salento, Lecce, Italy email: piero.lionello@unile.it

  2. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 • Mid-latitude cyclones have important effects on the environment as they are associated with rain, winds, waves, surges and even landslides, and they are linked to timing and magnitude of the extreme weather events. • Data for the analysis of the cyclones are provided by the ERA-40 (ECMWF Re-Analysis) dataset. • Data for the analysis of monthly precipitation are provided by CRU (Climate Research Unit, Univ. of East Anglia) • and for daily precipitation by ECA (European Climate Assessment, hosted at Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, KNMI). • The aim is to discuss the correlation between cyclone activity and precipitation and the links between the spatial variability of their trends…. • Some discussion of climate change signal in the Mediterranean is included.

  3. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Long-term trends from 1900 to 2005 have been observed in precipitation amount over many large regions… Significantly increased precipitation has been observed in […] northern Europe […] Drying has been observed in […] the Mediterranean, […]. Precipitation is highly variable spatially and temporally, and data are limited in some regions. (from IPCC 4th) Several results suggest that cyclone activity in the NH midlatitudes has increased during the past 40 years. (from IPCC 4th)

  4. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 winter precipitation trend (1958-2001) ECA-KNMI stations Wick 1931-2007 Eskdalemuir 1931-2007 Brindisi 1951-2007 Corfu 1955-2001

  5. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Winter Precipitation trends 1958-2001 Graphics based on CRU climatology, interpolated from station data to 0.5 degree lat/lon grid ( New, M., M. Hulme and P. Jones, 1999: J. Climate, 12, 829-856.

  6. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Correlation of ECA-KNMI station with CRU gridded dataset

  7. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Correlation of ECA-KNMI station with CRU gridded dataset

  8. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 SLP from ERA-40 Simmons, A. J. and Gibson, J. K. (2000) The ERA-40 Project Plan, ERA-40 Project Report Series n.1. • Storm track computation (band pass filtered standard deviation) • Cyclone tracking (Lionello et al 2002)

  9. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008

  10. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Eskdalemuir Wick Composites of tracks of cyclones that are associated with heavy daily precipitation values

  11. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Wick Eskdalemuir

  12. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Composites of tracks of cyclones that are associated with heavy daily precipitation values Brindisi Corfu

  13. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 corfu brindisi

  14. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Wick Eskdalemuir

  15. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Brindisi Corfu

  16. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 ERA-40 data:Trends 1958-2001 Frequency of cyclone centers Storm track strength

  17. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008

  18. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Examples precipitation time series have been considered in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean. They show a consistent relation between precipitation and cyclones and a substantial agreement between the behavior of the storm track and that of precipitation.

  19. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 a few more notes on climate change in the Mediterranean region

  20. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008

  21. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 113 134 55 23

  22. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 113 23 134 55

  23. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 What’s about climate change?

  24. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Projected CLIMATE CHANGE From global simulation A2-CTR B2-CTR From Lionello and Giorgi, GPC 2007

  25. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 RegCM A2-CTR • Global Model: Hadley Centre HadAMH • Dx = 1.25 lat x 1.875 lon • SST from HadCM3 run • Coupled sulfur model • Regional model: ICTP RegCM • Dx = 50 km • SST, GHG and sulfate from HadAMH • aerosol effects • Simulation periods • 1961-1990 : Reference run • 2071-2100 : Scenario run • Scenarios: A2, B2 B2-CTR

  26. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 A2-CTR A2-CTR B2-CTR B2-CTR

  27. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008

  28. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Conclusions The link between cyclones and winter precipitation that cyclones responsible for precipitation differ in different areas of the Mediterranean region.…. Decrease of precipitation/cyclones over a large fraction of the Mediterranean is shown in several projections. However, northwestern Mediterranean areas might behave differently. In fact, though reduction of precipitation is dominant in climate change simulations, the area affected by the precipitation reduction is, however, controversial. The projected increase of winter precipitation over north-western Mediterranean is likely due to cyclones originated outside the Mediterranean region. The decrease in the eastern part to that of cyclones inside the Mediterranean region itself. The analysis of the link with cyclones is a tool for understanding the pattern of precipitation change and its robustness.

  29. European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 European Geosciences UnionGeneral Assembly 2008 Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008 Thanks for your attention

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