Stability A Contribution Complex Systems can make to System of Systems Engineering

1. Stability A Contribution Complex Systems can make to System of Systems Engineering Complex Systems and SoS Engineering Workshop, RAND, 1/11-12/06 Elliot Axelband A paper in the format of an annotated briefing.Don’t view the briefing online.Downloadand then open the briefing in a PPT reader. The annotations are on the notes pages,accessible from the View menu.

2. Background - Paraphrased Comments • “There are too many programs in the DoD that suffer from Cost Growth, Schedule Overruns, and Performance Shortfalls” - Sheard • “Complex Systems Theory that grew out of Chaos Theory and Complexity Theory can possibly help, by impacting the way these programs are system engineered” - Sheard • I agree with first statement, and second premise, and add that Complex Systems Programs as well Systems of Systems Programs could benefit from any contributions Complex Systems Theory can provide- - Axelband • For simplicity I will use the terms Complex Systems to include Systems of Systems, and System Engineering (SE) to include Systems of Systems Engineering, without implying that there are not differences between these subjects. That compaction may be inappropriate for later detailed discussions

3. Some SE Fundamentals • System Engineering is concerned with the design, building and fielding (life cycle processes) associated with complex, innovative systems • You don’t need SE if your product is a lead pencil, or your service is that of communicating via the internet • You don’t need SE if you are doing something you’ve done before • An example of a complex innovative system follows

5. F-35, Joint Strike Fighter • In Development • Provides very advanced Capabilities (Complex and Innovative) • Largest Military Procurement - $400B, >3000A/C • 30,000 # plus, >100K parts,One Pilot,17M LOC • 3 Variants for US Application - Air Force, Navy, Marine • National and Multi-National Partners and Multi-National Users • Fully Networked

6. Defense System Life Cycle Source: DAU Handbook

7. Defense System Development Verification and Validation System Need System System Design System Subsystem Design Subsystem Component Design Component Buy/Code/ Manufacture Decomposition Integration & Test Requirements - Design - Manufacture - Assemble - Test Time

8. Requirements - Design - Manufacture - Assembly - Test Time Defense System Development-1 Verification and Validation System Need System* System Design System Subsystem Design Subsystem Component Design Component Buy/Code/ Manufacture* Decomposition Integration •Redesign is a part of Design; Design is Experimental & Iterative;Spiral Development • It takes 3 passes through the Development Process to field a Production System: - 1st when System* is a Prototype (SDD), - 2nd when Manufacture* is a Prototype (LRP), - 3rd at the start of Full Rate Production

9. Incremental Development Source: DAU Handbook

10. Poor Man’s History of Stability

11. Back to Chaos (Complexity Theory), SE, and DoD Program Stability • Chaos concern with Stability • The Butterfly flapping its wings in Tokyo effecting weather a half-world away • The classic first order non-linear difference equation that exhibits different Liapunov modes when one parameter is changes • “Is Chaos Theory bad non-linear math?, Teller” • Can the bad program performance of many DoD complex programs be characterized as a stability problem • Consider the three dimensional space of cost, performance and schedule, and the means to keep the program trajectory within a bounded subset (acceptable cost,schedule,performance, a closed set) possibly using risk characterized by probability measures • Can real complex systems be controlled/informed by the application of abstract complexity theory principles? • Let’s see • Today’s SOA - variations on Spiral and Incremental Development, a Discovery and Adjustment Paradigm • JSF Overrun - How to Bound? • Let’s review the specifics