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The Science of Global Climate Change: How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems

The Science of Global Climate Change: How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems. Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director of the University of Minnesota’s Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve. What May Happen to Minnesota’s Climate?

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The Science of Global Climate Change: How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems

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  1. The Science of Global Climate Change: How Climate Change May Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director of the University of Minnesota’s Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve

  2. What May Happen to Minnesota’s Climate? How May Changes in Climate Affect Minnesota’s Ecosystems?

  3. Welcome to Lake Superior?

  4. It’s All About the Climate… CLIMATE is the prevailing weather conditions of a region averaged over long periods of time. Wikipedia

  5. …and the Biomes that Result North America’s Biomes A BIOME is a large land area characterized by a prevailing CLIMATE that supports a major ecological community type. Wikipedia

  6. Minnesota’s Biomes MN DNR Minnesota is unique in that it supports three major biomes, making it a grand ECOTONE… a transition zone between biomes.

  7. Where Goes the Climate, so Goes the Biomes…

  8. Temperature (Solar Radiation) Precipitation (Amount & Timing) Soil Moisture (Evapotranspiration)

  9. Pearson Education

  10. Global Biomes “Survive & Thrive”

  11. Average Annual Temperature (U.S.) “Survive & Thrive” Tolerance Ranges -20oF 0oF 30oF 41oF 60oF 80oF 41oF -14oF BOREAL FOREST 60oF 39oF DECIDUOUS 72oF 10oF GRASSLAND 80oF J.Corney

  12. Average Annual Precipitation (U.S.) “Survive & Thrive” Tolerance Ranges 10in. 20in. 35in. 45in. 60in. 26in. 15in. BOREAL FOREST 40in. 25in. DECIDUOUS FOREST 60in. 10in. GRASSLAND 35in. J.Corney

  13. U.S. Climate Ranges

  14. Continental U.S. Biomes 66cm (26in.) U.S. 5oC (41oF)

  15. N B U.S.: -26-16oC (-14-60oF) Temperature Boreal Sub-Arctic 5oC (41oF) Eco tone Sub-Tropical Temperate S U.S.: -12-27oC (10-80oF) U.S.: 2-22oC (35-72oF) J.Corney

  16. Precipitation Arid Semi-Arid E W 66cm (26in.) Eco tone Semi-Mesic Mesic J.Corney 25-87cm (10-35in) 40-100cm (15-40in) 65-150cm (25-60in)

  17. Soil Moisture U.S. Estimated Water Budget Evapotranspiration 67% Surface Runoff 29% Wikipedia Consumptive Use 2% Groundwater Outflow 2% USGS

  18. Soil Moisture N W Ecotone E S J.Corney

  19. North America’s Prairie-Forest Border ?

  20. U.S. Climate & Biomes Profile Major Biomes NOAA - NWS

  21. What Is Minnesota’sCurrent Climate? (Averaged over the past 100 years) TEMPERATURE: 41oF annual avg. PRECIPITATION: 26 in. annual avg. Do These Averages Look Familiar?

  22. Continental U.S. Biomes 66cm (26in.) U.S. 5oC (41oF)

  23. 39oF 51oF 39oF (1971-2000) 42oF U.S. Climate Isolines 42oF 45oF 45oF 51oF 54oF 48oF 58oF 51oF 62oF 54oF 64oF 58oF 72oF 68oF 68oF 62oF 64oF 72oF 72oF 100” (1971-2000) 28” 12” 40” 20” 28” 16” 24” 8” 32” 36” 36” 40” 4” 50” 64oF <4” 60” 8”

  24. Temperature Isolines 37oF TEMPERATURE 41oF 44oF NWS

  25. Precipitation Isolines 40in 23in 35in 26in PRECIPITATION NWS

  26. Current MN Climate of 2010 66cm (26in.) 5oC (41oF)

  27. Isoline Convergence Point 37oF TEMPERATURE 41oF 44oF 26in 23in 35in PRECIPITATION NWS

  28. MN Soil Moisture Balance USDA - +

  29. MINNESOTA BIOMES CONIFEROUS FOREST DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND MN DNR

  30. Have There Been Changes in MN’s Climate? IPCC

  31. TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1900-1930) 36oF Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (oF) 40oF 1930 St. Cloud Area 41oF 43oF 26in 34in 19in 31in 22in Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches) NWS adapted by C. Lehman

  32. TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (1930-2000) 37oF 39oF Detroit Lakes Area 2010 41oF Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (oF) 44oF 35in 30in 26in 38in 23in NWS adapted by C. Lehman Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)

  33. MINNESOTA BIOMES CONIFEROUS FOREST About a 100 mile shift 2010 1930 DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND MN DNR

  34. What May Happen to Minnesota’s Future Climate?

  35. 2100 TEMPERATURE 3.5 – 4.0oC (6.3 – 7.2oF) INCREASE 5oC (41oF) Current Avg. becomes 9oC (48oF) Predicted Avg. PRECIPITATION 5 – 10% (1.3 – 2.6 in.) INCREASE 26 in. Current Avg. becomes 28 in. Predicted Avg. IPCC, 2007

  36. USGCRP – Hayhoe, et al.

  37. TRIPLE-BIOME CONVERGENCE POINT (2010-2100) 41oF Oh, Canada! 2100 44oF 48oF Average Annual Temperature Isoclines (oF) 51oF 33in 28in 37in 26in 40in NWS adapted by C. Lehman Average Annual Precipitation Isoclines (inches)

  38. Predicted MN Climate of 2100 71cm (28in.) 9oC (48oF)

  39. MINNESOTA BIOMES About a 300 mile shift 2100 SAVANNA DECIDUOUS FOREST GRASSLAND

  40. 2100 Plant Hardiness Zones USGRCP - National Arbor Day Foundation

  41. Projected (2100) USDA-Forest Service

  42. So, Maybe Not This…

  43. Perhaps Something Like This…

  44. So, How Will the Trees Migrate? Luka Luka

  45. Succession, Disturbance & Competition MN DNR

  46. Dr. Jeffrey R. Corney, Managing Director University of Minnesota Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve 2660 Fawn Lake Dr NE East Bethel, MN 55005 (763) 434-5131 www.cedarcreek.umn.edu jcorney@umn.edu

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