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Dayton ASHRAE Chapter

Dayton ASHRAE Chapter. Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008. Agenda. Climate Science – Known & Unknowns Climate International Climate Country Specific Ozone Science Ozone International Ozone Country Programs Industry Response Personal Responses to Climate Change.

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Dayton ASHRAE Chapter

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  1. Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008

  2. Agenda • Climate Science – Known & Unknowns • Climate International • Climate Country Specific • Ozone Science • Ozone International • Ozone Country Programs • Industry Response • Personal Responses to Climate Change

  3. Climate Change Science

  4. What is the “greenhouse effect”? Like the sun, the Earth also emits radiation. It is much cooler than the sun, though, so it emits in the infrared, just like a person, a cat, or any other body. Some of that infrared energy may be absorbed by molecules in the atmosphere, affecting the global energy balance.

  5. Venus has an atmosphere with more than 90% CO2. It also has sulfuric acid clouds. Its planetary greenhouse effect is about 500°C (the atmosphere raises the temperature by that much). Earth has an atmosphere with much less CO2 than Venus. The greenhouse effect raises its average temperature by about 30°C. The greenhouse effect is basic physics and it is real. What about greenhouse warming?

  6. The Atmosphere CCS-2

  7. The 1990s were warmer than at anytime during the last 1000 years CCS-3

  8. CO2 Emissions 10/28/02-cc5

  9. Extent of Arctic Sea Ice 1979 and 2005

  10. Changes to clouds: the biggest cause of uncertainty in predictions Low clouds cool climate High clouds warm climate Global warming will change cloud characteristics and, hence, their warming or cooling effect. This will exert a powerful feedback on climate change, but this feedback will differ from model to model.

  11. Antarctic Temperature Trends, 1966–2000

  12. Components of sea-level rise

  13. Ocean circulation in the North Atlantic

  14. US Hurricane Cycles Wax and Wane 6 12 5 14 5 15 4 12 6 14 8 17 10 24 8 19 5 13 7 21 4 18

  15. 8.4 5.1 3.4 REF: Nat’l Center for Atm. Presearch July, 2007

  16. Global Emissions Scenario IS92 a IPCC 1992 Current estimates for emissions growth in Non-Annex 1 countries are even higher

  17. Global Emissions for 550 PPM Stabilization Stabilization is not feasible without Non-Annex 1 countries’ participation IPCC 1994

  18. RadiativeForcing CCS-7

  19. Halocarbon Emissions, continued Combined CO2-equivalent emissions from halocarbons: ~7.5 Gt near 1990, about 33% of that year's CO2 emissions from global fossil fuel burning ~2.5 Gt near 2000, about 10% of that year’s CO2 emissions from global fossil fuel burning

  20. 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 CO2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Date (year A.D.)

  21. Decay of tetrafluoroethane (T = 14 years) in the atmosphere compared to CO2 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 CO2 0.4 0.3 HFC-134a 0.2 0.1 0 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 Date (year A.D.)

  22. Cut-off at a 100 year Integration Time Horizon 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 CO2 0.4 0.3 HFC-134a 0.2 0.1 0 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 Date (year A.D.)

  23. Climate Change International

  24. Climate Change International • August 1990 • June 1992 • March/April 1995 • December 1995 • July 1996 • December 1997 First IPCC Assessment Rio de Janeiro, Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of Parties (1), Berlin Second IPCC Assessment Conference of Parties (II), Geneva Conference of Parties (III), Kyoto

  25. Kyoto Protocol • Controls Emissions • 6 Greenhouse Gases • CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 • Avg. reduction for developed countries • 5.2% from 1990 level • 2015 reduction-1.7ppm to 381.3 ppm

  26. Climate Change - International • First Meeting of Kyoto Protocol Parties in Montreal, November, 05 • US non Party • First Commitment Period – 2008 thru 2012 • No Second Commitment or Period defined • Canadian Environment Minister was President

  27. Kyoto Protocol Meeting 2006 Nairobi • Adaptation Fund creation • Significant discussion by developing countries. • May be used as tradeoff for developing country commitments • Administrative rules were agreed

  28. Bali - 2007 • Largest attended meeting ever • More new NGO’s • Youth, Indigenous Peoples, Civil Society • Agreement for 2 year negotiations • Inclusive of US • Under both UNFCCC and KP – 2 tracks • No developing country commitments • Weak, voluntary language • Negotiations completed in 2009 • Commitments commence in 2013

  29. Other Climate Change • Achim Steiner, UNFCCC Ex. Sec. requested emergency meeting General Assembly on climate • Moon agreed – September 24, 2007 • White House conference 13 countries 9/27.9/28/07 • IPCC – released first 3 Working Group reports • “…globally average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming…” • 90% probability that climate change is manmade • Massive populations at risk, plan/animal species • Steiner noted MP contribution to KP goals – MP 8 GT, KP 2 GT, substitute HCFCs/HFCs add 1 GT

  30. Other Climate Change • G8 Climate Focus • Aim to cut ghgs 50% by 2050 • Incorporate India/China • 16 largest cities to reduce energy consumption in existing buildings –Clinton Climate Initiative • Houston, Chicago, NY • ASHRAE – Honeywell, Trane, Siemens, Johnson Controls conduct audits • Clinton will attend Nov 1,2 Mayor’s Conference in Seattle

  31. Country Climate Programs

  32. USA

  33. EU F Gas Regulation Key sectors – refrigeration, air-conditioning, heat pumps, high-voltage switchgear • Reporting • Production,imports, exports • Marketing & use bans limited • Non-refillable containers • Entered into force July 4, 2007 • Rules still being written

  34. EU F Gas Regulation • CONTAINMENT • Stationary applications prevent/minimize leakage • Number of annual checks depends on equipment size • Maintain records of inspections • RECOVERY • Recover gases at end of life • Certified personnel for recycling, reclamation, destruction • Commission establish minimum requirements by 7/08 • LABELLING • Containers of F gases • Refrigeration, A/C equipment

  35. EU F Gas Regulation • 2010 REVIEW • Whether containment can extend to MAC • Assess need for emission control from products/equipment • Foam • Technical product design • Assess BAT/BEP • Assess state of technology, particularly for foams • Assess marketing prohibitions • Technical feasibility • Energy efficiency considerations

  36. EU Mobile A/C Directive • <50 gms HFC/year Emission • If GWP > 150 • Hammonized leak detection test • < 60 gms/year dual evaporation • 1/1/11 no new model MAC > 150 GWP • 1/1/17 no new MAC > 150 GWP • Service allowed • “Abnormal” leakage requires repair • Review Procedure 12 months or 5 years after entry into force • Honeywell/Dupont/Others announced low GWP alternatives • Tailpipe emissions separate regulation

  37. EU Emissions Trading 2005-7 covers: energy, oil steel & paper 2008 covers all large emitters MS allocate individually EU is bringing aviation into ETS.

  38. Price development in the EU ETS

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