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Managing unavoidable Climate Change a risky business

Today's forecast. Why managing the effects of climate and weather are important to the member organisations of Eastleigh Strategic PartnershipFuture local climate changeShort question and answer session and discussion on next steps. Climate

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Managing unavoidable Climate Change a risky business

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    1. Managing unavoidable Climate Change – a risky business? Presentation by Beverley Draig Sustainability Policy Coordinator Eastleigh Borough Council

    2. Today’s forecast Why managing the effects of climate and weather are important to the member organisations of Eastleigh Strategic Partnership Future local climate change Short question and answer session and discussion on next steps

    3. Climate & Weather Weather is what’s happening outside right now. It affects the way we run our “business” activities our services to our communities our own lifestyles and well being and the quality of life of our communities

    4. Climate and Weather Climate is the average weather in a particular location over a 30 year period. The climate all over the world is undoubtedly changing. It will continue to change over the next 30-40 years because of greenhouse gases, like CO2, in the atmosphere now pollution and natural phenomena such as volcanoes and solar cycles

    5. How has adverse weather affected Eastleigh already? We don’t know! The costs and effects of past weather events to Eastleigh Borough Council appear not to have been quantified adequately. Many other Councils have the same problem – illustrated by recent exercise jointly carried out by Hampshire authorities – Local Climate Impact profile (LCLIP) Does your organisation know how much adverse weather has cost you?

    6. Local Area Agreement Targets on Adapting to Climate Change Hampshire Local Area Agreement 2008 – 2011 Working groups on Climate Change – HIOWSCN and NI 188 Working Group NI 188: Planning to adapt to climate change : Level 1 March 2009: Public commitment by councils & prioritised risk-based assessment Level 2 March 2010: Comprehensive risk-based assessment & prioritised action in some areas, to include working with Local Strategic Partners on their own risk assessments Level 3 March 2011: Comprehensive action plan & prioritised action in all priority areas

    7. Hampshire Headlines Winter of 2000/01, rainfall of over 150% of the seasonal average* Impacts = river flooding, groundwater flooding, damage to property and landslides Summer of 2003, temperatures of 2.2°C above seasonal average* Impacts = deaths from heat, drought Autumn of 2006, temperatures of 2.6°C above seasonal average* Impacts = severe storms, tornadoes, intense rainfall, damage to property Taken from the summary of headline events compared with Met Office Data (Hampshire LCLIP)Taken from the summary of headline events compared with Met Office Data (Hampshire LCLIP)

    8. Zero line is seasonal average, bars show variation in temperature (+/-) against that average in degrees centigradeZero line is seasonal average, bars show variation in temperature (+/-) against that average in degrees centigrade

    9. 100% line is normal rainfall bars either side represent the (+/-) percentage of rainfall for that period.100% line is normal rainfall bars either side represent the (+/-) percentage of rainfall for that period.

    10. Climate Projections for Hampshire - Temperature 2080s, Medium emissions scenario, central estimate Increase in winter mean temperature is 3şC; very unlikely to be less than 1.6şC or more than 4.7şC Increase in summer mean temperature is 3.9şC; very unlikely to be less than 2şC or more than 6.4şC

    11. Climate Projections for Hampshire - Precipitation 2080s, Medium emissions scenario, central estimate Change in winter mean precipitation is 22%; very unlikely to be less than 4% or more than 50% Change in summer mean precipitation is –22%; very unlikely to be less than –47% or more than 7%

    13. Managing Risk and Adapting to Climate Change Adapting to unavoidable climate change and unpredictable weather patterns should not be a “bolt on” activity for any organisation. It is part of: business continuity management performance management budget management risk management

    14. Assessing risk How do you assess risks to your organisation now? Climate Change is only one overarching Risk, albeit an enormous cross cutting issue Can you expand your current practices regarding risk assessment or do you need to create a new process?

    15. Some key areas of risk Regulatory costs Litigation if your organisation is culpable Uninsurable risks Subsidence, flood and storm damage claims Health and Safety issues Vulnerable members of the Community

    16. Questions? Next Steps Each member of the Eastleigh Strategic Partnership needs to discuss potential affects of changing weather on service delivery and business management The ESP needs to have completed its own Risk Assessment by end of February 2010. Are you ready? Do you need help to do this? Do you need training? What are your needs? Group Discussion.

    17. Help and Advice Beverley Draig, Sustainability Policy Coordinator Phone 023 8068 8085 Email sustainability@eastleigh.gov.uk I will be producing local Climate Scenarios for 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s and offering workshops for ESP organisations. Contact me for details

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