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Competitive Analysis “Let The Market Speak”

Competitive Analysis “Let The Market Speak”. Presented by: Robert M. Lefenfeld Principal, Real Property Research Group, Inc. Define Market Area. Be realistic. Not too expansive. Senior will have broader geographic draw. Be suspicious of radii and county markets. Demographic Analysis.

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Competitive Analysis “Let The Market Speak”

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  1. Competitive Analysis“Let The Market Speak” Presented by: Robert M. Lefenfeld Principal, Real Property Research Group, Inc.

  2. Define Market Area • Be realistic. • Not too expansive. • Senior will have broader geographic draw. • Be suspicious of radii and county markets.

  3. Demographic Analysis • Family Communities • Past and Current Household Growth. • Housing Quality make up for lack of HH Growth. • Senior Communities. • Senior HH 62+, 70+. • Income Qualified Households.

  4. Maryland Population Pyramid 2000-2010 2000 2010 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census 2000

  5. Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2000 - 2010 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

  6. Bob Lefenfeld: Maryland Population Pyramid 2010-2020 2020 2010 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census 2000

  7. Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2010 - 2020 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

  8. Maryland Population Pyramid 2020-2030 2030 2020 Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from Census 2000

  9. Change in Households by Age of Household Head for Maryland, 2020 - 2030 Source: The Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services

  10. Rental Analysis • Look at Entire Market. • Weakness in other segments can effect affordable housing. • What products are offering concessions. • Will concessions burn off in short term?

  11. Net Price Position in Market

  12. Occupancy Levels/ Concessions Reason for concessions. • Market overbuilt overall. • Too much product at one position. • Adjustment for overreaching in rents.

  13. Need to understand how market will evolve. IV. Pipeline • Check with Planning Department. • Check with Housing Finance Agency. • Talk with developers to quantify delivery and price position.

  14. V. Family Communities • Rarely oversupply for 50% units. • Issue is getting family project approved by community. • Bond deals offering significant amenity package. • Mixed Income are doable if products compatible.

  15. VI. Senior Communities • Evolution of Senior Product • Efficiencies to one bedroom to two bedroom. • One bedroom units in urban markets where affordability overriding criteria. • Seniors generally command premium over family units.

  16. Senior Communities • In small markets, careful about introduction of 2nd or 3rd senior deal. • In dense urban markets, demand is deeper than seen in affordability. • More developed product in Northeast than Southeast.

  17. VII. Preservation / Infill Projects • Exciting opportunity to reinvest in existing neighborhoods. • Is proposed scope of work enough to extend life of project? • Are underwritten rents realistic without housing subsidy? • HOPE VI can work to turn an area.

  18. VIII. Current Markets • Mid Atlantic continues to be strong. • Southeast cities somewhat overbuilt. • Downtown investment strong. • Second tier markets ignored in 1990’s getting attention.

  19. WWW.RPRG.Net

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